Norway vs France

Group I · Matchday 3

· Gillette Stadium, Boston

Group I standings →Bracket →NO 100% · FR 100% to advance

Norway

17%

1–4

France

57%

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Goals (5)

O. Dembele

France

20'

O. Dembele

assist: K. Mbappe

France

21'

T. Aasgaard

assist: A. Schjelderup

Norway

32'

O. Dembele

France

90'

D. Doue

assist: B. Barcola

France

Missed penalties (1)

50'

Jørgen Strand Larsenmiss

Norway

Cards (2)

10'

P. Berg

Norway

74'

Aurélien Tchouaméni

France

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ M. Thorsby for K. Thorstvedt

Norway

46'

↑ M. Pedersen for F. Bjorkan

Norway

65'

↑ R. Cherki for M. Olise

France

65'

↑ B. Barcola for O. Dembele

France

66'

↑ S. Langas for H. Falchener

Norway

76'

↑ I. Konate for D. Upamecano

France

83'

↑ J. Hauge for A. Schjelderup

Norway

83'

↑ A. Nusa for O. Bobb

Norway

87'

↑ M. Gusto for J. Kounde

France

87'

↑ J. Mateta for K. Mbappe

France

Match stats

38%Possession62%

4Shots14

2Shots on target8

0.27Expected goals0.90

1Corners3

5Fouls6

0Offsides1

5Saves1

76%Pass accuracy89%

Top performer

O. Dembele

France · 3 goals

Lineups

Norway4-2-3-1

France4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 8

2.17

Goals / match

2.50

1.83

Conceded / match

1.25

100%

BTTS rate

38%

Clean sheet rate

50%

3.63

xG / match (club)

2.23

6.3

Corners / match

6.0

1.2

Yellows / match

1.4

58%

Possession

58%

Norway · last 5

Senegal3-223 June LH

France1-426 June WA

Ivory Coast1-230 June WA

France · last 5

Head to head · 1 meetings

Norway wins

Draws

France wins

Last: Norway 0-1 France (2026-06-26)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Norway

No known absences.

France

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: France are slight favourites at 57%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 51%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Head-to-head

-1.8%/+1.8%

Club xG form

+2.1%/-1.3%

Travel

-1.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Norway

10%

Draw

45%

France

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

54·

Attack

·46

25·

Defence

·75

Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or France and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Norway goals

0123456

France goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 0-2 11%, 0-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 51%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

NorwayFrance

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win17%5.82

Draw25%3.93

Away win57%1.74

Double chance

Home or draw43%2.35

Home or away75%1.34

Draw or away83%1.21

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)23%4.34

Away (DNB)77%1.30

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.09

Under 0.58%12.61

Over 1.577%1.30

Under 1.523%4.35

Over 2.551%1.95

Under 2.549%2.05

Over 3.529%3.43

Under 3.571%1.41

Over 4.514%7.09

Under 4.586%1.16

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals8%12.61

1 goals15%6.64

2 goals26%3.89

3 goals22%4.52

4 goals15%6.63

5 goals8%12.16

6+ goals6%16.97

Both teams to score

Yes51%1.97

No49%2.03

Team totals

Home over 0.559%1.70

Home over 1.522%4.50

Home over 2.56%16.51

Away over 0.584%1.19

Away over 1.555%1.82

Away over 2.528%3.57

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet16%6.30

Away clean sheet41%2.43

Win to nil

Home win to nil8%12.60

Away win to nil33%3.00

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%71.49

Home -1.56%17.61

Home -0.516%6.14

Home +0.542%2.41

Home +1.565%1.54

Home +2.584%1.20

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.29

0-211%9.02

0-111%9.38

1-210%10.18

0-08%12.61

0-37%14.70

1-36%16.59

2-15%21.16

Half-time result

Home17%5.99

Draw40%2.51

Away43%2.30

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.41

Under 0.529%3.41

Over 1.535%2.88

Under 1.565%1.53

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home10%10.40

Home/Draw4%23.27

Home/Away3%35.98

Draw/Home7%14.39

Draw/Draw14%7.22

Draw/Away19%5.25

Away/Home1%90.22

Away/Draw4%23.27

Away/Away38%2.63

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.582%1.22

Under 8.518%5.56

Over 9.573%1.38

Under 9.528%3.64

Over 10.561%1.63

Under 10.539%2.59

Over 11.550%2.01

Under 11.550%1.99

Over 12.538%2.61

Under 12.562%1.62

Expected total: 11.6

NO corners

Indicative

Over 3.583%1.21

Under 3.517%5.74

Over 4.568%1.47

Under 4.532%3.14

Over 5.551%1.94

Under 5.549%2.06

Over 6.535%2.82

Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.553%1.88

Under 2.547%2.13

Over 3.531%3.24

Under 3.569%1.45

Over 4.515%6.54

Under 4.585%1.18

Over 5.57%15.28

Under 5.593%1.07

Expected total: 2.8

NO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Hansen (?)8%11.79

Tore Reginiussen (?)8%11.79

Håvard Nordtveit (?)8%11.79

S. Johansen (?)8%11.79

R. Jarstein (?)8%11.79

O. Omoijuanfo (?)8%11.79

S. Rossbach (?)8%11.79

T. Lehne Olsen (?)8%11.79

Expected total: 0.7

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)17%5.95

M. Diaby (?)17%5.95

K. Coman (?)17%5.95

L. Dubois (?)17%5.95

H. Aouar (Midfielder)17%5.95

N. Fekir (?)17%5.95

K. Benzema (?)17%5.95

B. Matuidi (?)17%5.95

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.89, away 1.84). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.