Team
Norway vs France
Group I · Matchday 3
· Gillette Stadium, Boston
Goals (5)
Missed penalties (1)
Cards (2)
10'
Norway
P. Berg
74'
France
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Substitutions (10)
46'Norway
↑ M. Thorsby for K. Thorstvedt
46'Norway
↑ M. Pedersen for F. Bjorkan
65'France
↑ R. Cherki for M. Olise
65'France
↑ B. Barcola for O. Dembele
66'Norway
↑ S. Langas for H. Falchener
76'France
↑ I. Konate for D. Upamecano
83'Norway
↑ J. Hauge for A. Schjelderup
83'Norway
↑ A. Nusa for O. Bobb
87'France
↑ M. Gusto for J. Kounde
87'France
↑ J. Mateta for K. Mbappe
Match stats
38%Possession62%
4Shots14
2Shots on target8
0.27Expected goals0.90
1Corners3
5Fouls6
0Offsides1
5Saves1
76%Pass accuracy89%
Top performer
ODO. Dembele
France · 3 goals
Lineups
Norway4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 6 · away 8
2.17
Goals / match
2.50
1.83
Conceded / match
1.25
100%
BTTS rate
38%
0%
Clean sheet rate
50%
3.63
xG / match (club)
2.23
6.3
Corners / match
6.0
1.2
Yellows / match
1.4
58%
Possession
58%
Norway · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Norway wins
0
Draws
1
France wins
Last: Norway 0-1 France (2026-06-26)avg 1.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Norway
No known absences.
France
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: France are slight favourites at 57%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 51%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Head-to-head
-1.8%/+1.8%
Club xG form
+2.1%/-1.3%
Travel
-1.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeNorway
10%
Draw
45%
France
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
54·
Attack
·46
25·
Defence
·75
Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or France and +1.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Norway goals
8
11
11
7
4
12
10
6
5
4
0123456
France goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 0-2 11%, 0-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 51%
80
151
262
223
154
85
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
NorwayFrance
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win17%5.82
Draw25%3.93
Away win57%1.74
Double chance
Home or draw43%2.35
Home or away75%1.34
Draw or away83%1.21
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)23%4.34
Away (DNB)77%1.30
Total goals
Over 0.592%1.09
Under 0.58%12.61
Over 1.577%1.30
Under 1.523%4.35
Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.05
Over 3.529%3.43
Under 3.571%1.41
Over 4.514%7.09
Under 4.586%1.16
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.89
Exact total goals
0 goals8%12.61
1 goals15%6.64
2 goals26%3.89
3 goals22%4.52
4 goals15%6.63
5 goals8%12.16
6+ goals6%16.97
Both teams to score
Yes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Team totals
Home over 0.559%1.70
Home over 1.522%4.50
Home over 2.56%16.51
Away over 0.584%1.19
Away over 1.555%1.82
Away over 2.528%3.57
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet16%6.30
Away clean sheet41%2.43
Win to nil
Home win to nil8%12.60
Away win to nil33%3.00
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.51%71.49
Home -1.56%17.61
Home -0.516%6.14
Home +0.542%2.41
Home +1.565%1.54
Home +2.584%1.20
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.29
0-211%9.02
0-111%9.38
1-210%10.18
0-08%12.61
0-37%14.70
1-36%16.59
2-15%21.16
Half-time result
Home17%5.99
Draw40%2.51
Away43%2.30
Half-time goals
Over 0.571%1.41
Under 0.529%3.41
Over 1.535%2.88
Under 1.565%1.53
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home10%10.40
Home/Draw4%23.27
Home/Away3%35.98
Draw/Home7%14.39
Draw/Draw14%7.22
Draw/Away19%5.25
Away/Home1%90.22
Away/Draw4%23.27
Away/Away38%2.63
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.582%1.22
Under 8.518%5.56
Over 9.573%1.38
Under 9.528%3.64
Over 10.561%1.63
Under 10.539%2.59
Over 11.550%2.01
Under 11.550%1.99
Over 12.538%2.61
Under 12.562%1.62
Expected total: 11.6
NO corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.74
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.14
Over 5.551%1.94
Under 5.549%2.06
Over 6.535%2.82
Under 6.565%1.55
Expected total: 5.8
FR corners
IndicativeOver 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.18
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.33
Over 5.554%1.87
Under 5.546%2.15
Over 6.538%2.66
Under 6.562%1.60
Expected total: 5.9
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.13
Over 3.531%3.24
Under 3.569%1.45
Over 4.515%6.54
Under 4.585%1.18
Over 5.57%15.28
Under 5.593%1.07
Expected total: 2.8
NO anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Hansen (?)8%11.79
Tore Reginiussen (?)8%11.79
Håvard Nordtveit (?)8%11.79
S. Johansen (?)8%11.79
R. Jarstein (?)8%11.79
O. Omoijuanfo (?)8%11.79
S. Rossbach (?)8%11.79
T. Lehne Olsen (?)8%11.79
Expected total: 0.7
FR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
T. Lemar (?)17%5.95
M. Diaby (?)17%5.95
K. Coman (?)17%5.95
L. Dubois (?)17%5.95
H. Aouar (Midfielder)17%5.95
N. Fekir (?)17%5.95
K. Benzema (?)17%5.95
B. Matuidi (?)17%5.95
Expected total: 1.5
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.89, away 1.84). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.