Egypt vs Iran

Group G · Matchday 3

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group G standings →Bracket →EG 100% · IR 0% to advance

Egypt

28%

FT

1–1

Iran

39%

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Goals (2)

5'

M. Saber

Egypt
14'

R. Rezaeian

Iran

Missed penalties (1)

11'

M. Taremimiss

Iran

Cards (7)

19'

H. Kanaani

Iran
20'

M. Saber

Egypt
42'

Y. Ibrahim

Egypt
43'

Ali Nemati

Iran
79'

S. Ezatolahi

Iran
92'

M. Lasheen

Egypt
94'

Shoja Khalilzadeh

Iran

Substitutions (8)

14'

↑ Y. Ibrahim for M. Abdelmonem

Egypt
46'

↑ O. Marmoush for E. Ashour

Egypt
46'

↑ M. Attia for M. Saber

Egypt
46'

↑ S. Hardani for H. Kanaani

Iran
57'

↑ Zizo for M. Salah

Egypt
67'

↑ S. Moghanlou for S. Ghoddos

Iran
76'

↑ H. Abdelkarim for M. Ziko

Egypt
91'

↑ A. Jahanbakhsh for M. Mohebi

Iran

Match stats

62%Possession38%
15Shots10
3Shots on target4
0.81Expected goals1.59
8Corners1
11Fouls16
0Offsides2
3Saves2
88%Pass accuracy77%

Top performer

MS

M. Saber

Egypt · 1 goal

Lineups

Egypt4-2-3-1

Iran5-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 3

1.60
Goals / match
1.00
1.40
Conceded / match
1.00
100%
BTTS rate
67%
0%
Clean sheet rate
33%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.8
Corners / match
5.6
1.9
Yellows / match
2.0
52%
Possession
55%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Egypt wins

1

Draws

0

Iran wins

Last: Egypt 1-1 Iran (2026-06-27)avg 2.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Egypt

No known absences.

Iran

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Iran edge it at just 39%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (66%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 43%.

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
-4.0%/0.0%
Club xG form
-3.2%/-3.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Egypt

45%

Draw

45%

Iran

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

67·
Form
·33
67·
Attack
·33
50·
Defence
·50

Their advice: Double chance : Egypt or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Egypt goals
15
13
8
10
15
8
5
6
0123456

Iran goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 15%, 0-1 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 34%

15
0
23
1
29
2
19
3
10
4
4
5
2
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
EgyptIran

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win28%3.60
Draw34%2.98
Away win39%2.58

Double chance

Home or draw61%1.63
Home or away66%1.50
Draw or away72%1.38

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)42%2.40
Away (DNB)58%1.72

Total goals

Over 0.585%1.17
Under 0.515%6.89
Over 1.563%1.60
Under 1.537%2.68
Over 2.534%2.95
Under 2.566%1.51
Over 3.515%6.52
Under 3.585%1.18
Over 4.56%17.26
Under 4.594%1.06

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.19
Even54%1.84

Exact total goals

0 goals15%6.89
1 goals23%4.38
2 goals29%3.47
3 goals19%5.39
4 goals10%10.49
5 goals4%25.49
6+ goals2%53.45

Both teams to score

Yes43%2.35
No57%1.74

Team totals

Home over 0.560%1.67
Home over 1.523%4.28
Home over 2.57%15.26
Away over 0.568%1.47
Away over 1.532%3.17
Away over 2.511%9.26

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet32%3.13
Away clean sheet40%2.50

Win to nil

Home win to nil17%5.74
Away win to nil25%3.92

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.53%37.47
Home -1.510%9.84
Home -0.527%3.65
Home +0.561%1.64
Home +1.583%1.21
Home +2.595%1.06

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.62
0-015%6.89
0-113%7.78
1-010%10.03
0-28%12.02
1-28%13.12
2-16%16.34
2-05%18.65

Half-time result

Home22%4.49
Draw48%2.06
Away29%3.42

Half-time goals

Over 0.560%1.66
Under 0.540%2.52
Over 1.524%4.22
Under 1.576%1.31

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home16%6.22
Home/Draw5%22.01
Home/Away2%60.75
Draw/Home12%8.47
Draw/Draw21%4.77
Draw/Away16%6.38
Away/Home1%79.05
Away/Draw5%22.01
Away/Away23%4.26

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.570%1.42
Under 8.530%3.36
Over 9.558%1.72
Under 9.542%2.39
Over 10.546%2.18
Under 10.554%1.84
Over 11.534%2.93
Under 11.566%1.52
Over 12.524%4.16
Under 12.576%1.32

Expected total: 10.3

EG corners

Indicative
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.41
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.76
Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

IR corners

Indicative
Over 3.580%1.25
Under 3.520%5.01
Over 4.565%1.55
Under 4.535%2.82
Over 5.547%2.11
Under 5.553%1.90
Over 6.532%3.16
Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.64
Over 3.552%1.93
Under 3.548%2.08
Over 4.532%3.08
Under 4.568%1.48
Over 5.518%5.59
Under 5.582%1.22

Expected total: 3.8

EG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=4)

Trézéguet (Attacker)27%3.69
Zizo (Attacker)24%4.16
Emam Ashour (Midfielder)11%8.90
Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)11%8.90
Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)10%10.00
Koka (?)9%11.43
Mahmoud Gennesh (?)9%11.43
Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)9%11.43

Expected total: 1.2

IR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

A. Alipour (Attacker)29%3.45
M. Ghaedi (Attacker)29%3.45
A. Hosseinzadeh (Attacker)29%3.45
D. Eckert Ayensa (Attacker)29%3.45
S. Moghanlou (Attacker)29%3.45
M. Mohebi (Midfielder)12%8.13
K. Rezaei (?)11%9.28
S. Azmoun (?)11%9.28

Expected total: 2.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.92, away 1.14). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.