Belgium vs Egypt

Group G · Matchday 1

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group G standings →Bracket →BE 100% · EG 100% to advance

Belgium

64%

FT

1–1

HT 0–1

Egypt

13%

Share card

Goals (2)

20'

E. Ashour

assist: M. Salah

Egypt
66'

M. Hanyog

Belgium

Cards (4)

13'

Marwan Attia

Egypt
14'

Timothy Castagne

Belgium
34'

Ahmed Fatouh

Egypt
75'

Maxim De Cuyper

Belgium

Substitutions (10)

56'

↑ N. Raskin for T. Castagne

Belgium
56'

↑ M. De Cuyper for A. Onana

Belgium
66'

↑ R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaere

Belgium
71'

↑ R. Rabia for E. Ashour

Egypt
76'

↑ H. Abdelkarim for M. Salah

Egypt
76'

↑ Zizo for M. Ziko

Egypt
86'

↑ H. Vanaken for K. De Bruyne

Belgium
86'

↑ M. Fernandez-Pardo for J. Doku

Belgium
88'

↑ I. Adel for H. Fathy

Egypt
88'

↑ K. Hafez for A. Fatouh

Egypt

Match stats

54%Possession46%
15Shots14
3Shots on target3
1.35Expected goals1.08
2Corners7
15Fouls15
0Offsides1
2Saves3
86%Pass accuracy81%

Top performer

EA

E. Ashour

Egypt · 1 goal

Lineups

Belgium4-2-3-1

Egypt4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group G opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 5

2.33
Goals / match
1.60
1.17
Conceded / match
1.40
83%
BTTS rate
100%
17%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.41
xG / match (club)
0.00
7.3
Corners / match
4.8
1.5
Yellows / match
1.9
60%
Possession
52%

Head to head · 3 meetings

1

Belgium wins

1

Draws

1

Egypt wins

Last: Belgium 1-1 Egypt (2026-06-15)avg 2.7 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Belgium

No known absences.

Egypt

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: Belgium are strong favourites at 64%.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 50%).

Most likely score 2-0 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+3.0%/-6.4%
Travel
-1.0%/-4.0%
Set pieces
+0.8%/-0.4%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Belgium

45%

Draw

45%

Egypt

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Double chance : Belgium or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Belgium

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Belgium goals
8
12
11
13
9
9
6
4
0123456

Egypt goals

Most likely: 2-0 13%, 1-0 12%, 1-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 49%

8
0
16
1
26
2
22
3
15
4
8
5
5
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
BelgiumEgypt

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win64%1.57
Draw23%4.27
Away win13%7.84

Double chance

Home or draw87%1.15
Home or away77%1.31
Draw or away36%2.76

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)83%1.20
Away (DNB)17%6.00

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.09
Under 0.58%12.10
Over 1.576%1.32
Under 1.524%4.11
Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Over 3.528%3.61
Under 3.572%1.38
Over 4.513%7.62
Under 4.587%1.15

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12
Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals8%12.10
1 goals16%6.23
2 goals26%3.84
3 goals22%4.56
4 goals15%6.85
5 goals8%12.88
6+ goals5%18.67

Both teams to score

Yes45%2.21
No55%1.83

Team totals

Home over 0.586%1.17
Home over 1.558%1.73
Home over 2.531%3.26
Away over 0.551%1.95
Away over 1.516%6.13
Away over 2.54%27.21

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet49%2.06
Away clean sheet14%6.95

Win to nil

Home win to nil40%2.48
Away win to nil6%16.34

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.520%4.95
Home -1.541%2.46
Home -0.565%1.54
Home +0.588%1.13
Home +1.596%1.04
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-013%7.60
1-012%8.14
1-111%9.05
2-19%10.55
3-09%11.77
0-08%12.10
3-16%16.32
4-04%24.27

Half-time result

Home47%2.11
Draw39%2.54
Away13%7.57

Half-time goals

Over 0.570%1.43
Under 0.530%3.31
Over 1.534%2.97
Under 1.566%1.51

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home43%2.33
Home/Draw4%27.15
Home/Away1%131.46
Draw/Home21%4.85
Draw/Draw13%7.46
Draw/Away5%18.60
Away/Home3%38.43
Away/Draw4%27.15
Away/Away7%14.46

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.580%1.25
Under 8.520%5.08
Over 9.570%1.42
Under 9.530%3.37
Over 10.559%1.70
Under 10.541%2.43
Over 11.547%2.13
Under 11.553%1.89
Over 12.536%2.80
Under 12.564%1.56

Expected total: 11.4

BE corners

Indicative
Over 3.590%1.12
Under 3.510%9.57
Over 4.579%1.27
Under 4.521%4.72
Over 5.565%1.55
Under 5.535%2.83
Over 6.549%2.04
Under 6.551%1.96

Expected total: 6.6

EG corners

Indicative
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.41
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.76
Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.56
Over 3.539%2.59
Under 3.561%1.63
Over 4.521%4.75
Under 4.579%1.27
Over 5.510%10.01
Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.1

BE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Witsel (Midfielder)18%5.67
C. Ngonge (?)18%5.67
N. Chadli (?)18%5.67
Thomas Vermaelen (?)18%5.67
T. Alderweireld (?)18%5.67
J. Vertonghen (?)18%5.67
S. Mignolet (?)18%5.67
D. Mertens (?)18%5.67

Expected total: 1.6

EG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=4)

Trézéguet (Attacker)22%4.54
Zizo (Attacker)19%5.14
Emam Ashour (Midfielder)9%11.17
Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)9%11.17
Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)8%12.56
Koka (?)7%14.37
Mahmoud Gennesh (?)7%14.37
Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)7%14.37

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.94, away 0.72). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.