All matches
Egypt vs Iran
Group G · Matchday 3
· Lumen Field, Seattle
Goals (2)
Missed penalties (1)
Cards (7)
19'
Iran
H. Kanaani
20'
Egypt
M. Saber
42'Egypt
Y. Ibrahim
43'Iran
Ali Nemati
79'Iran
S. Ezatolahi
92'Egypt
M. Lasheen
94'Iran
Shoja Khalilzadeh
Substitutions (8)
14'Egypt
↑ Y. Ibrahim for M. Abdelmonem
46'Egypt
↑ O. Marmoush for E. Ashour
46'Egypt
↑ M. Attia for M. Saber
46'Iran
↑ S. Hardani for H. Kanaani
57'Egypt
↑ Zizo for M. Salah
67'Iran
↑ S. Moghanlou for S. Ghoddos
76'Egypt
↑ H. Abdelkarim for M. Ziko
91'Iran
↑ A. Jahanbakhsh for M. Mohebi
Match stats
62%Possession38%
15Shots10
3Shots on target4
0.81Expected goals1.59
8Corners1
11Fouls16
0Offsides2
3Saves2
88%Pass accuracy77%
Top performer
MSM. Saber
Egypt · 1 goal
Lineups
Egypt4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 3
1.60
Goals / match
1.00
1.40
Conceded / match
1.00
100%
BTTS rate
67%
0%
Clean sheet rate
33%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.8
Corners / match
5.6
1.9
Yellows / match
2.0
52%
Possession
55%
Egypt · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Egypt wins
1
Draws
0
Iran wins
Last: Egypt 1-1 Iran (2026-06-27)avg 2.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Egypt
No known absences.
Iran
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Wide-open matchResult: An open match. Iran edge it at just 39%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (66%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 43%.
Most likely score 1-1 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
-4.0%/0.0%
Club xG form
-3.2%/-3.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeEgypt
45%
Draw
45%
Iran
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
67·
Form
·33
67·
Attack
·33
50·
Defence
·50
Their advice: Double chance : Egypt or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Egypt
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Egypt goals
15
13
8
10
15
8
5
6
0123456
Iran goals
Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 15%, 0-1 13%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 34%
150
231
292
193
104
45
26+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
EgyptIran
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win28%3.60
Draw34%2.98
Away win39%2.58
Double chance
Home or draw61%1.63
Home or away66%1.50
Draw or away72%1.38
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)42%2.40
Away (DNB)58%1.72
Total goals
Over 0.585%1.17
Under 0.515%6.89
Over 1.563%1.60
Under 1.537%2.68
Over 2.534%2.95
Under 2.566%1.51
Over 3.515%6.52
Under 3.585%1.18
Over 4.56%17.26
Under 4.594%1.06
Odd / even goals
Odd46%2.19
Even54%1.84
Exact total goals
0 goals15%6.89
1 goals23%4.38
2 goals29%3.47
3 goals19%5.39
4 goals10%10.49
5 goals4%25.49
6+ goals2%53.45
Both teams to score
Yes43%2.35
No57%1.74
Team totals
Home over 0.560%1.67
Home over 1.523%4.28
Home over 2.57%15.26
Away over 0.568%1.47
Away over 1.532%3.17
Away over 2.511%9.26
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet32%3.13
Away clean sheet40%2.50
Win to nil
Home win to nil17%5.74
Away win to nil25%3.92
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.53%37.47
Home -1.510%9.84
Home -0.527%3.65
Home +0.561%1.64
Home +1.583%1.21
Home +2.595%1.06
Correct score (top 8)
1-115%6.62
0-015%6.89
0-113%7.78
1-010%10.03
0-28%12.02
1-28%13.12
2-16%16.34
2-05%18.65
Half-time result
Home22%4.49
Draw48%2.06
Away29%3.42
Half-time goals
Over 0.560%1.66
Under 0.540%2.52
Over 1.524%4.22
Under 1.576%1.31
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home16%6.22
Home/Draw5%22.01
Home/Away2%60.75
Draw/Home12%8.47
Draw/Draw21%4.77
Draw/Away16%6.38
Away/Home1%79.05
Away/Draw5%22.01
Away/Away23%4.26
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.570%1.42
Under 8.530%3.36
Over 9.558%1.72
Under 9.542%2.39
Over 10.546%2.18
Under 10.554%1.84
Over 11.534%2.93
Under 11.566%1.52
Over 12.524%4.16
Under 12.576%1.32
Expected total: 10.3
EG corners
IndicativeOver 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.41
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.76
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
IR corners
IndicativeOver 3.580%1.25
Under 3.520%5.01
Over 4.565%1.55
Under 4.535%2.82
Over 5.547%2.11
Under 5.553%1.90
Over 6.532%3.16
Under 6.568%1.46
Expected total: 5.5
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.64
Over 3.552%1.93
Under 3.548%2.08
Over 4.532%3.08
Under 4.568%1.48
Over 5.518%5.59
Under 5.582%1.22
Expected total: 3.8
EG anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=4)
Trézéguet (Attacker)27%3.69
Zizo (Attacker)24%4.16
Emam Ashour (Midfielder)11%8.90
Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)11%8.90
Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)10%10.00
Koka (?)9%11.43
Mahmoud Gennesh (?)9%11.43
Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)9%11.43
Expected total: 1.2
IR anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
A. Alipour (Attacker)29%3.45
M. Ghaedi (Attacker)29%3.45
A. Hosseinzadeh (Attacker)29%3.45
D. Eckert Ayensa (Attacker)29%3.45
S. Moghanlou (Attacker)29%3.45
M. Mohebi (Midfielder)12%8.13
K. Rezaei (?)11%9.28
S. Azmoun (?)11%9.28
Expected total: 2.1
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.92, away 1.14). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.