Team
New Zealand vs Belgium
Group G · Matchday 3
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (6)
Cards (2)
46'
New Zealand
Marko Stamenić
56'New Zealand
Elijah Just
Substitutions (10)
46'New Zealand
↑ Jesse Randall for Sarpreet Singh
46'New Zealand
↑ Benjamin Old for Ryan Thomas
56'
Belgium
↑ Matías Fernández-Pardo for Jérémy Doku
64'New Zealand
↑ Callum McCowatt for Joe Bell
64'New Zealand
↑ Michael Boxall for Tim Payne
72'Belgium
↑ Amadou Onana for Kevin De Bruyne
72'Belgium
↑ Alexis Saelemaekers for Leandro Trossard
79'New Zealand
↑ Francis De Vries for Liberato Cacace
85'Belgium
↑ Nicolas Raskin for Youri Tielemans
85'Belgium
↑ Romelu Lukaku for Charles De Ketelaere
Match stats
39%Possession61%
1Shots16
0Shots on target4
0.01Expected goals1.71
1Corners4
3Fouls1
1Offsides0
3Saves0
84%Pass accuracy89%
Top performer
RLRomelu Lukaku
Belgium · 1 goal
Lineups
New Zealand4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 6
1.33
Goals / match
2.33
3.33
Conceded / match
1.17
100%
BTTS rate
83%
0%
Clean sheet rate
17%
0.00
xG / match (club)
2.41
4.7
Corners / match
7.3
1.4
Yellows / match
1.5
51%
Possession
60%
New Zealand · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
New Zealand wins
1
Draws
0
Belgium wins
Last: Belgium 0-0 New Zealand (2020-10-08)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
New Zealand
No known absences.
Belgium
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Belgium are strong favourites at 87%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 72% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.
Most likely score 0-3 (13%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-6.4%/+4.0%
Set pieces
-0.5%/+1.8%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeNew Zealand
10%
Draw
45%
Belgium
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
33·
Form
·67
75·
Attack
·25
17·
Defence
·83
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Belgium
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
New Zealand goals
7
12
13
11
7
4
6
7
6
0123456
Belgium goals
Most likely: 0-3 13%, 0-2 12%, 0-4 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 68%
30
81
172
213
194
145
136+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
New ZealandBelgium
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win3%30.61
Draw9%10.67
Away win87%1.14
Double chance
Home or draw13%7.91
Home or away91%1.10
Draw or away97%1.03
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)4%27.74
Away (DNB)96%1.04
Total goals
Over 0.597%1.03
Under 0.53%34.49
Over 1.589%1.12
Under 1.511%9.28
Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.58
Over 3.551%1.95
Under 3.549%2.05
Over 4.532%3.13
Under 4.568%1.47
Odd / even goals
Odd49%2.04
Even51%1.96
Exact total goals
0 goals3%34.49
1 goals8%12.70
2 goals17%5.83
3 goals21%4.82
4 goals19%5.16
5 goals14%6.91
6+ goals17%5.72
Both teams to score
Yes39%2.55
No61%1.65
Team totals
Home over 0.540%2.48
Home over 1.510%10.48
Home over 2.52%63.66
Away over 0.596%1.04
Away over 1.583%1.20
Away over 2.562%1.60
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet4%25.02
Away clean sheet60%1.68
Win to nil
Home win to nil1%91.08
Away win to nil57%1.76
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.5<1%1077.68
Home -1.51%158.90
Home -0.53%37.05
Home +0.512%8.28
Home +1.528%3.61
Home +2.548%2.06
Correct score (top 8)
0-313%7.54
0-212%8.09
0-411%9.37
0-17%13.97
0-57%14.54
1-37%14.58
1-26%15.65
1-46%18.11
Half-time result
Home6%17.52
Draw25%3.93
Away69%1.45
Half-time goals
Over 0.581%1.23
Under 0.519%5.37
Over 1.550%2.00
Under 1.550%2.00
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home2%61.07
Home/Draw2%62.02
Home/Away2%40.68
Draw/Home1%74.09
Draw/Draw5%19.55
Draw/Away19%5.27
Away/Home<1%442.00
Away/Draw2%62.02
Away/Away67%1.49
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 8.580%1.24
Under 8.520%5.09
Over 9.570%1.42
Under 9.530%3.37
Over 10.559%1.70
Under 10.541%2.44
Over 11.547%2.12
Under 11.553%1.89
Over 12.536%2.79
Under 12.564%1.56
Expected total: 11.4
NZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
BE corners
IndicativeOver 3.590%1.12
Under 3.510%9.57
Over 4.579%1.27
Under 4.521%4.72
Over 5.565%1.55
Under 5.535%2.83
Over 6.549%2.04
Under 6.551%1.96
Expected total: 6.6
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=8)
Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.16
Over 3.531%3.18
Under 3.569%1.46
Over 4.516%6.38
Under 4.584%1.19
Over 5.57%14.80
Under 5.593%1.07
Expected total: 2.8
NZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
K. Barbarouses (Attacker)14%6.96
B. Waine (Attacker)14%6.96
J. Randall (Attacker)14%6.96
E. Just (Midfielder)7%13.85
S. Singh (Midfielder)5%19.84
D. Ingham (?)5%19.84
N. Tzanev (?)5%19.84
D. Wynne (?)5%19.84
Expected total: 0.8
BE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Witsel (Midfielder)28%3.63
C. Ngonge (?)28%3.63
N. Chadli (?)28%3.63
Thomas Vermaelen (?)28%3.63
T. Alderweireld (?)28%3.63
J. Vertonghen (?)28%3.63
S. Mignolet (?)28%3.63
D. Mertens (?)28%3.63
Expected total: 2.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.52, away 3.22). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.