Panama vs England

Group L · Matchday 3

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group L standings →Bracket →PA 0% · GB-ENG 100% to advance

Panama

0–2

England

82%

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Goals (2)

62'

J. Bellingham

England

67'

H. Kane

assist: J. Bellingham

England

Cards (3)

53'

J. Fajardo

Panama

60'

J. Quansah

England

84'

A. Andrade

Panama

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ J. Fajardo for T. Rodriguez

Panama

63'

↑ N. Madueke for B. Saka

England

63'

↑ D. Spence for J. Quansah

England

71'

↑ E. Eze for J. Bellingham

England

71'

↑ A. Londono for J. Rodriguez

Panama

71'

↑ I. Diaz for Y. Barcenas

Panama

84'

↑ J. Henderson for E. Anderson

England

84'

↑ O. Watkins for H. Kane

England

88'

↑ E. Davis for J. Gutierrez

Panama

88'

↑ A. Quintero for C. Harvey

Panama

Match stats

33%Possession67%

12Shots16

2Shots on target6

0.59Expected goals1.34

2Corners6

14Fouls11

3Offsides4

4Saves2

75%Pass accuracy89%

Top performer

J. Bellingham

England · 1 goal

Lineups

Panama5-4-1

England4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 8

0.00

Goals / match

2.50

1.33

Conceded / match

1.50

BTTS rate

75%

Clean sheet rate

25%

1.00

xG / match (club)

1.51

4.3

Corners / match

5.8

2.0

Yellows / match

1.4

55%

Possession

65%

Panama · last 3

England · last 5

Argentina1-215 July WA

France4-618 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Panama wins

Draws

England wins

Last: England 6-1 Panama (2018-06-24)avg 7.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Panama

No known absences.

England

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: England are strong favourites at 82%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 27%.

Most likely score 0-2 (19%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

-7.3%/+1.0%

Set pieces

-1.6%/+2.5%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Panama

10%

Draw

45%

England

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·100

0·

Attack

·100

50·

Defence

·50

Their advice: Combo Winner : England and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Panama goals

0123456

England goals

Most likely: 0-2 19%, 0-1 15%, 0-3 15%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 50%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

PanamaEngland

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win4%26.63

Draw14%6.95

Away win82%1.22

Double chance

Home or draw18%5.51

Home or away86%1.17

Draw or away96%1.04

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)4%22.79

Away (DNB)96%1.05

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08

Under 0.57%13.95

Over 1.576%1.31

Under 1.524%4.25

Over 2.552%1.94

Under 2.548%2.06

Over 3.529%3.40

Under 3.571%1.42

Over 4.514%7.01

Under 4.586%1.17

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.07

Even52%1.94

Exact total goals

0 goals7%13.95

1 goals16%6.12

2 goals25%4.01

3 goals22%4.52

4 goals15%6.60

5 goals8%12.06

6+ goals6%16.75

Both teams to score

Yes27%3.68

No73%1.37

Team totals

Home over 0.529%3.44

Home over 1.55%21.19

Home over 2.51%190.35

Away over 0.591%1.10

Away over 1.569%1.45

Away over 2.543%2.33

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet9%10.95

Away clean sheet71%1.41

Win to nil

Home win to nil2%50.86

Away win to nil64%1.57

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%1708.66

Home -1.51%179.11

Home -0.53%31.80

Home +0.518%5.70

Home +1.540%2.52

Home +2.564%1.57

Correct score (top 8)

0-219%5.39

0-115%6.75

0-315%6.76

0-49%11.30

0-07%13.95

1-26%15.68

1-16%16.60

1-35%19.65

Half-time result

Home5%18.89

Draw34%2.92

Away60%1.65

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.41

Under 0.529%3.43

Over 1.535%2.87

Under 1.565%1.54

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home2%52.80

Home/Draw2%58.92

Home/Away2%58.75

Draw/Home2%56.11

Draw/Draw10%10.40

Draw/Away23%4.38

Away/Home<1%618.27

Away/Draw2%58.92

Away/Away59%1.71

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.564%1.55

Under 8.536%2.81

Over 9.552%1.93

Under 9.548%2.07

Over 10.539%2.55

Under 10.561%1.65

Over 11.528%3.56

Under 11.572%1.39

Over 12.519%5.26

Under 12.581%1.23

Expected total: 9.8

PA corners

Indicative

Over 3.565%1.55

Under 3.535%2.82

Over 4.545%2.20

Under 4.555%1.83

Over 5.528%3.52

Under 5.572%1.40

Over 6.516%6.27

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

GB-ENG corners

Indicative

Over 3.578%1.28

Under 3.522%4.63

Over 4.562%1.61

Under 4.538%2.65

Over 5.545%2.22

Under 5.555%1.82

Over 6.529%3.39

Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.566%1.52

Under 2.534%2.92

Over 3.544%2.28

Under 3.556%1.78

Over 4.525%3.96

Under 4.575%1.34

Over 5.513%7.86

Under 5.587%1.15

Expected total: 3.4

PA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Fajardo (Attacker)10%10.19

C. Waterman (Attacker)10%10.19

T. Rodríguez (Attacker)10%10.19

H. Cummings (?)3%29.59

A. Machado (?)3%29.59

J. Vargas (?)3%29.59

A. Cooper (?)3%29.59

A. Quintero (Midfielder)3%29.59

Expected total: 0.5

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)51%1.95

D. Rose (?)21%4.70

D. Alli (?)21%4.70

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.34, away 2.39). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.