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Team

Colombia vs Portugal

Group K · Matchday 3

· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Group K standings →Bracket →CO 100% · PT 100% to advance

Colombia

21%

FT

0–0

Portugal

43%

Share card

Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (1)

86'

G. Puerta

Colombia

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ D. Dalot for J. Cancelo

Portugal
46'

↑ J. Neves for R. Neves

Portugal
60'

↑ L. Suarez for J. Cordoba

Colombia
60'

↑ R. Rios for J. Lerma

Colombia
70'

↑ Samu Costa for Vitinha

Portugal
70'

↑ R. Leao for Joao Felix

Portugal
76'

↑ J. Quintero for J. Rodriguez

Colombia
76'

↑ K. Castano for J. Arias

Colombia
87'

↑ D. Munoz for S. Arias

Colombia
92'

↑ M. Nunes for N. Mendes

Portugal

Match stats

55%Possession45%
23Shots13
6Shots on target2
1.58Expected goals0.69
5Corners2
11Fouls6
3Offsides2
2Saves6
89%Pass accuracy91%

Lineups

Colombia4-3-3

  • 12Camilo Vargas
  • 4Santiago Arias
  • 23Davinson Sánchez
  • 3Jhon Lucumí
  • 22Deiver Machado
  • 14Gustavo Puerta
  • 16Jefferson Lerma
  • 11Jhon Arias
  • 10James Rodríguez
  • 9Jhon Córdoba
  • 7Luis Díaz

Portugal4-2-3-1

  • 1Diogo Costa
  • 20João Cancelo
  • 3Rúben Dias
  • 13Renato Veiga
  • 25Nuno Mendes
  • 21Rúben Neves
  • 23Vitinha
  • 18Pedro Neto
  • 8Bruno Fernandes
  • 11João Félix
  • 7Cristiano Ronaldo

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 5

1.00
Goals / match
1.60
0.20
Conceded / match
0.60
20%
BTTS rate
40%
80%
Clean sheet rate
40%
1.62
xG / match (club)
3.07
4.5
Corners / match
7.1
2.2
Yellows / match
1.7
54%
Possession
66%

Colombia · last 5

WAUzbekistan flagUzbekistan1-318 JuneWHDR Congo flagDR Congo1-024 JuneDHPortugal flagPortugal0-027 JuneWHGhana flagGhana1-04 JulyDASwitzerland flagSwitzerland0-07 July

Portugal · last 5

DHDR Congo flagDR Congo1-117 JuneWHUzbekistan flagUzbekistan5-023 JuneDAColombia flagColombia0-027 JuneWHCroatia flagCroatia2-12 JulyLHSpain flagSpain0-16 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Colombia wins

1

Draws

0

Portugal wins

Last: Colombia 0-0 Portugal (2026-06-27)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Colombia

No known absences.

Portugal

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Portugal edge it at just 43%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (74%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 34%.

Most likely score 0-0 (19%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Club xG form
-3.4%/+1.1%
Rest days
-2.0%/+2.0%
Travel
-4.0%/-1.0%
Set pieces
-1.0%/+1.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Colombia

35%

Draw

35%

Portugal

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

60·
Form
·40
40·
Attack
·60
50·
Defence
·50

Their advice: Double chance : Colombia or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Colombia

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Portugal

  • João Félix

    Attacker · 2025-26

    0.60

    G/90

    0.35

    A/90

  • Rúben Neves

    Midfielder · 2025-26

    0.38

    G/90

    0.23

    A/90

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Colombia goals
19
17
10
10
14
7
4
0123456

Portugal goals

Most likely: 0-0 19%, 0-1 17%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 26%

19
0
27
1
28
2
16
3
7
4
2
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
ColombiaPortugal

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win21%4.70
Draw35%2.82
Away win43%2.31

Double chance

Home or draw57%1.76
Home or away65%1.55
Draw or away79%1.27

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)33%3.04
Away (DNB)67%1.49

Total goals

Over 0.581%1.23
Under 0.519%5.31
Over 1.554%1.85
Under 1.546%2.18
Over 2.526%3.86
Under 2.574%1.35
Over 3.510%9.75
Under 3.590%1.11
Over 4.53%29.71
Under 4.597%1.03

Odd / even goals

Odd45%2.21
Even55%1.83

Exact total goals

0 goals19%5.31
1 goals27%3.70
2 goals28%3.54
3 goals16%6.39
4 goals7%14.52
5 goals2%41.23
6+ goals1%106.41

Both teams to score

Yes34%2.94
No66%1.52

Team totals

Home over 0.549%2.05
Home over 1.514%6.91
Home over 2.53%32.93
Away over 0.566%1.50
Away over 1.530%3.35
Away over 2.510%10.19

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet34%2.98
Away clean sheet51%1.95

Win to nil

Home win to nil15%6.80
Away win to nil32%3.08

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%82.62
Home -1.56%16.48
Home -0.521%4.84
Home +0.556%1.78
Home +1.581%1.23
Home +2.594%1.06

Correct score (top 8)

0-019%5.31
0-117%5.83
1-114%7.05
0-210%9.74
1-010%10.15
1-27%14.58
2-14%23.86
2-04%26.08

Half-time result

Home17%5.88
Draw52%1.92
Away31%3.25

Half-time goals

Over 0.555%1.83
Under 0.545%2.21
Over 1.519%5.31
Under 1.581%1.23

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home12%8.50
Home/Draw4%25.74
Home/Away1%73.23
Draw/Home10%10.26
Draw/Draw24%4.09
Draw/Away18%5.55
Away/Home1%130.10
Away/Draw4%25.74
Away/Away26%3.83

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.579%1.27
Under 8.521%4.75
Over 9.569%1.46
Under 9.531%3.18
Over 10.557%1.76
Under 10.543%2.32
Over 11.545%2.22
Under 11.555%1.82
Over 12.534%2.95
Under 12.566%1.51

Expected total: 11.3

CO corners

Indicative
Over 3.564%1.56
Under 3.536%2.79
Over 4.545%2.22
Under 4.555%1.82
Over 5.528%3.56
Under 5.572%1.39
Over 6.516%6.37
Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

PT corners

Indicative
Over 3.591%1.10
Under 3.59%11.09
Over 4.581%1.23
Under 4.519%5.33
Over 5.568%1.47
Under 5.532%3.12
Over 6.553%1.90
Under 6.547%2.11

Expected total: 6.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.62
Over 3.552%1.93
Under 3.548%2.07
Over 4.532%3.09
Under 4.568%1.48
Over 5.518%5.62
Under 5.582%1.22

Expected total: 3.8

CO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Rodríguez (Attacker)18%5.51
J. Córdoba (Attacker)18%5.51
J. Murillo (?)6%15.48
I. Poveda (?)6%15.48
J. Cuadrado (?)6%15.48
A. Morelos (?)6%15.48
I. Arboleda (?)6%15.48
L. Orejuela (?)6%15.48

Expected total: 0.8

PT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

João Félix (Attacker)28%3.58
Raphaël Guerreiro (?)10%9.66
João Mário (?)10%9.66
Mário Rui (?)10%9.66
Pepe (?)10%9.66
Diogo Leite (?)10%9.66
Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)10%9.66
Bruno Varela (?)10%9.66

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.67, away 1.09). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.