DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

Group K · Matchday 3

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group K standings →Bracket →CD 100% · UZ 0% to advance

DR Congo

53%

3–1

Uzbekistan

20%

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Goals (4)

10'

E. Shomurodov

Uzbekistan

68'

Y. Wissapen

DR Congo

78'

F. Mayele

assist: M. Elia

DR Congo

90'

Y. Wissa

assist: M. Elia

DR Congo

Cards (5)

21'

N. Sadiki

DR Congo

43'

A. Khusanov

Uzbekistan

50'

N. Mbuku

DR Congo

48'

S. Nasrullaev

Uzbekistan

62'

S. Moutoussamy

DR Congo

Substitutions (10)

51'

↑ F. Mayele for C. Bakambu

DR Congo

59'

↑ O. Khamrobekov for O. Shukurov

Uzbekistan

59'

↑ A. Ganiev for D. Khamdamov

Uzbekistan

72'

↑ T. Bongonda for B. Cipenga

DR Congo

72'

↑ M. Elia for N. Mbuku

DR Congo

72'

↑ N. Mukau for S. Moutoussamy

DR Congo

73'

↑ O. Urunov for A. Fayzullaev

Uzbekistan

82'

↑ I. Sergeev for J. Urozov

Uzbekistan

82'

↑ J. Iskanderov for A. Mozgovoy

Uzbekistan

83'

↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku

DR Congo

Match stats

58%Possession42%

18Shots3

4Shots on target1

2.27Expected goals0.20

2Corners4

6Fouls15

3Offsides1

1Saves1

82%Pass accuracy75%

Top performer

Y. Wissa

DR Congo · 2 goals

Lineups

DR Congo4-4-2

Uzbekistan3-4-2-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

1.25

Goals / match

0.67

1.25

Conceded / match

3.67

75%

BTTS rate

67%

Clean sheet rate

0.00

xG / match (club)

0.00

4.3

Corners / match

4.3

1.3

Yellows / match

1.4

44%

Possession

48%

DR Congo · last 4

Portugal1-117 June LA

Colombia1-024 June WH

Uzbekistan3-127 June LA

England2-11 July

Uzbekistan · last 3

Colombia1-318 June LA

Portugal5-023 June LA

DR Congo3-127 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

DR Congo wins

Draws

Uzbekistan wins

Last: Congo DR 0-1 Uzbekistan (2026-06-27)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

DR Congo

No known absences.

Uzbekistan

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: DR Congo are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

-3.3%/-2.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

DR Congo

45%

Draw

45%

Uzbekistan

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

50·

Attack

·50

80·

Defence

·20

Their advice: Double chance : Congo DR or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

DR Congo goals

0123456

Uzbekistan goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 2-0 10%, 2-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 52%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

DR CongoUzbekistan

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win53%1.88

Draw26%3.79

Away win20%4.90

Double chance

Home or draw80%1.26

Home or away74%1.36

Draw or away47%2.14

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)72%1.38

Away (DNB)28%3.61

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.08

Under 0.58%12.89

Over 1.578%1.29

Under 1.522%4.48

Over 2.552%1.92

Under 2.548%2.09

Over 3.530%3.34

Under 3.570%1.43

Over 4.515%6.83

Under 4.585%1.17

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals8%12.89

1 goals15%6.87

2 goals26%3.92

3 goals22%4.51

4 goals15%6.53

5 goals8%11.82

6+ goals6%16.17

Both teams to score

Yes54%1.86

No46%2.16

Team totals

Home over 0.583%1.21

Home over 1.553%1.89

Home over 2.526%3.83

Away over 0.563%1.59

Away over 1.526%3.82

Away over 2.58%12.66

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet37%2.70

Away clean sheet17%5.86

Win to nil

Home win to nil29%3.41

Away win to nil9%10.76

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.514%7.05

Home -1.531%3.20

Home -0.554%1.85

Home +0.580%1.24

Home +1.593%1.08

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.98

2-010%10.12

2-110%10.19

1-010%10.28

0-08%12.89

3-06%17.16

3-16%17.28

1-26%18.15

Half-time result

Home41%2.45

Draw40%2.50

Away19%5.24

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.41

Under 0.529%3.47

Over 1.535%2.83

Under 1.565%1.55

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home35%2.87

Home/Draw5%21.60

Home/Away1%73.78

Draw/Home18%5.58

Draw/Draw14%7.10

Draw/Away8%12.42

Away/Home3%35.56

Away/Draw5%21.60

Away/Away12%8.58

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 8.555%1.82

Under 8.545%2.21

Over 9.542%2.40

Under 9.558%1.71

Over 10.530%3.36

Under 10.570%1.42

Over 11.520%5.00

Under 11.580%1.25

Over 12.513%7.91

Under 12.587%1.14

Expected total: 9.0

CD corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.566%1.52

Under 3.534%2.92

Over 4.547%2.14

Under 4.553%1.88

Over 5.530%3.37

Under 5.570%1.42

Over 6.517%5.92

Under 6.583%1.20

Expected total: 4.5

UZ corners

Indicative

low sample (n=12)

Over 3.566%1.51

Under 3.534%2.96

Over 4.547%2.11

Under 4.553%1.90

Over 5.530%3.31

Under 5.570%1.43

Over 6.517%5.79

Under 6.583%1.21

Expected total: 4.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 2.557%1.74

Under 2.543%2.34

Over 3.535%2.86

Under 3.565%1.54

Over 4.518%5.49

Under 4.582%1.22

Over 5.58%12.14

Under 5.592%1.09

Expected total: 3.0

CD anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

F. Mayele (Attacker)46%2.19

B. Cipenga (Attacker)46%2.19

S. Banza (Attacker)41%2.43

G. Kakuta (Attacker)41%2.43

W. Balikwisha (?)16%6.17

S. Bastien (?)16%6.17

M. Bokadi (?)16%6.17

P. M'Poku (?)16%6.17

Expected total: 3.0

UZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Amonov (Attacker)26%3.88

O. O'runov (Attacker)26%3.88

I. Sergeev (Attacker)26%3.88

A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)26%3.88

O. Akhmedov (?)9%10.58

F. Musaev (?)9%10.58

D. Tursunov (?)9%10.58

I. Alibaev (?)9%10.58

Expected total: 1.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.77, away 0.99). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.