Team
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan
Group K · Matchday 3
· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Goals (4)
Cards (5)
21'
DR Congo
N. Sadiki
43'
Uzbekistan
A. Khusanov
50'DR Congo
N. Mbuku
48'Uzbekistan
S. Nasrullaev
62'DR Congo
S. Moutoussamy
Substitutions (10)
51'DR Congo
↑ F. Mayele for C. Bakambu
59'Uzbekistan
↑ O. Khamrobekov for O. Shukurov
59'Uzbekistan
↑ A. Ganiev for D. Khamdamov
72'DR Congo
↑ T. Bongonda for B. Cipenga
72'DR Congo
↑ M. Elia for N. Mbuku
72'DR Congo
↑ N. Mukau for S. Moutoussamy
73'Uzbekistan
↑ O. Urunov for A. Fayzullaev
82'Uzbekistan
↑ I. Sergeev for J. Urozov
82'Uzbekistan
↑ J. Iskanderov for A. Mozgovoy
83'DR Congo
↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku
Match stats
58%Possession42%
18Shots3
4Shots on target1
2.27Expected goals0.20
2Corners4
6Fouls15
3Offsides1
1Saves1
82%Pass accuracy75%
Top performer
YWY. Wissa
DR Congo · 2 goals
Lineups
DR Congo4-4-2
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 3
1.25
Goals / match
0.67
1.25
Conceded / match
3.67
75%
BTTS rate
67%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.3
Corners / match
4.3
1.3
Yellows / match
1.4
44%
Possession
48%
Uzbekistan · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
DR Congo wins
0
Draws
1
Uzbekistan wins
Last: Congo DR 0-1 Uzbekistan (2026-06-27)avg 1.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
DR Congo
No known absences.
Uzbekistan
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: DR Congo are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).
Most likely score 1-1 (13%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-3.3%/-2.1%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeDR Congo
45%
Draw
45%
Uzbekistan
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
100·
Form
·0
50·
Attack
·50
80·
Defence
·20
Their advice: Double chance : Congo DR or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
DR Congo goals
8
5
10
13
6
10
10
5
6
6
0123456
Uzbekistan goals
Most likely: 1-1 13%, 2-0 10%, 2-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 52%
80
151
262
223
154
85
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
DR CongoUzbekistan
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win53%1.88
Draw26%3.79
Away win20%4.90
Double chance
Home or draw80%1.26
Home or away74%1.36
Draw or away47%2.14
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)72%1.38
Away (DNB)28%3.61
Total goals
Over 0.592%1.08
Under 0.58%12.89
Over 1.578%1.29
Under 1.522%4.48
Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Over 3.530%3.34
Under 3.570%1.43
Over 4.515%6.83
Under 4.585%1.17
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals8%12.89
1 goals15%6.87
2 goals26%3.92
3 goals22%4.51
4 goals15%6.53
5 goals8%11.82
6+ goals6%16.17
Both teams to score
Yes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Team totals
Home over 0.583%1.21
Home over 1.553%1.89
Home over 2.526%3.83
Away over 0.563%1.59
Away over 1.526%3.82
Away over 2.58%12.66
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet37%2.70
Away clean sheet17%5.86
Win to nil
Home win to nil29%3.41
Away win to nil9%10.76
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.514%7.05
Home -1.531%3.20
Home -0.554%1.85
Home +0.580%1.24
Home +1.593%1.08
Home +2.598%1.02
Correct score (top 8)
1-113%7.98
2-010%10.12
2-110%10.19
1-010%10.28
0-08%12.89
3-06%17.16
3-16%17.28
1-26%18.15
Half-time result
Home41%2.45
Draw40%2.50
Away19%5.24
Half-time goals
Over 0.571%1.41
Under 0.529%3.47
Over 1.535%2.83
Under 1.565%1.55
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home35%2.87
Home/Draw5%21.60
Home/Away1%73.78
Draw/Home18%5.58
Draw/Draw14%7.10
Draw/Away8%12.42
Away/Home3%35.56
Away/Draw5%21.60
Away/Away12%8.58
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 8.555%1.82
Under 8.545%2.21
Over 9.542%2.40
Under 9.558%1.71
Over 10.530%3.36
Under 10.570%1.42
Over 11.520%5.00
Under 11.580%1.25
Over 12.513%7.91
Under 12.587%1.14
Expected total: 9.0
CD corners
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 3.566%1.52
Under 3.534%2.92
Over 4.547%2.14
Under 4.553%1.88
Over 5.530%3.37
Under 5.570%1.42
Over 6.517%5.92
Under 6.583%1.20
Expected total: 4.5
UZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=12)
Over 3.566%1.51
Under 3.534%2.96
Over 4.547%2.11
Under 4.553%1.90
Over 5.530%3.31
Under 5.570%1.43
Over 6.517%5.79
Under 6.583%1.21
Expected total: 4.5
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.34
Over 3.535%2.86
Under 3.565%1.54
Over 4.518%5.49
Under 4.582%1.22
Over 5.58%12.14
Under 5.592%1.09
Expected total: 3.0
CD anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=2)
F. Mayele (Attacker)46%2.19
B. Cipenga (Attacker)46%2.19
S. Banza (Attacker)41%2.43
G. Kakuta (Attacker)41%2.43
W. Balikwisha (?)16%6.17
S. Bastien (?)16%6.17
M. Bokadi (?)16%6.17
P. M'Poku (?)16%6.17
Expected total: 3.0
UZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Amonov (Attacker)26%3.88
O. O'runov (Attacker)26%3.88
I. Sergeev (Attacker)26%3.88
A. Gʻaniyev (Attacker)26%3.88
O. Akhmedov (?)9%10.58
F. Musaev (?)9%10.58
D. Tursunov (?)9%10.58
I. Alibaev (?)9%10.58
Expected total: 1.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.77, away 0.99). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.