Jordan vs Argentina

Group J · Matchday 3

· AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Group J standings →Bracket →JO 0% · AR 100% to advance

Jordan

4%

FT

1–3

Argentina

82%

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Goals (4)

19'

G. Lo Celso

Argentina
31'

L. Martinezpen

Argentina
55'

M. Tamari

assist: E. Haddad

Jordan
80'

L. Messi

Argentina

Cards (3)

17'

M. Abu Taha

Jordan
64'

Y. Al Arab

Jordan
94'

Shararh

Jordan

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ M. Al Mardi for O. Al Fakhouri

Jordan
46'

↑ M. Tamari for A. Azaizeh

Jordan
60'

↑ L. Messi for L. Martinez

Argentina
60'

↑ T. Almada for G. Lo Celso

Argentina
61'

↑ A. Mac Allister for N. Paz

Argentina
71'

↑ V. Barco for G. Simeone

Argentina
76'

↑ A. Jamous for N. Al Rashdan

Jordan
82'

↑ J. Lopez for J. Alvarez

Argentina
90'

↑ S. Obaid for H. Abu Dahab

Jordan
90'

↑ Shararh for A. Olwan

Jordan

Match stats

27%Possession73%
5Shots12
1Shots on target4
0.74Expected goals2.14
1Corners6
11Fouls7
1Offsides3
1Saves0
80%Pass accuracy92%

Top performer

GL

G. Lo Celso

Argentina · 1 goal

Lineups

Jordan3-4-2-1

Argentina4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 8

1.00
Goals / match
2.38
2.67
Conceded / match
1.00
100%
BTTS rate
62%
0%
Clean sheet rate
25%
0.00
xG / match (club)
2.22
3.8
Corners / match
5.3
2.1
Yellows / match
1.4
42%
Possession
61%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Jordan wins

1

Draws

0

Argentina wins

Last: Jordan 0-0 Argentina (2026-06-28)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Jordan

No known absences.

Argentina

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: Argentina are strong favourites at 82%.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 55%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 30%.

Most likely score 0-2 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-1.6%/+0.6%
Set pieces
-0.6%/+0.6%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Jordan

0%

Draw

50%

Argentina

50%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·
Form
·100
29·
Attack
·71
0·
Defence
·100

Their advice: Winner : Argentina

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Jordan goals
6
13
17
15
9
5
6
7
6
0123456

Argentina goals

Most likely: 0-2 17%, 0-3 15%, 0-1 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 54%

6
0
15
1
24
2
22
3
16
4
9
5
6
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
JordanArgentina

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win4%25.26
Draw14%7.28
Away win82%1.22

Double chance

Home or draw18%5.65
Home or away86%1.16
Draw or away96%1.04

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)5%21.79
Away (DNB)95%1.05

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.07
Under 0.56%16.15
Over 1.579%1.26
Under 1.521%4.82
Over 2.555%1.80
Under 2.545%2.24
Over 3.533%3.02
Under 3.567%1.49
Over 4.517%5.93
Under 4.583%1.20

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.06
Even52%1.94

Exact total goals

0 goals6%16.15
1 goals15%6.88
2 goals24%4.20
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals16%6.16
5 goals9%10.62
6+ goals7%13.46

Both teams to score

Yes30%3.29
No70%1.44

Team totals

Home over 0.532%3.10
Home over 1.56%16.98
Home over 2.51%135.12
Away over 0.592%1.09
Away over 1.572%1.40
Away over 2.546%2.18

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet8%12.33
Away clean sheet68%1.48

Win to nil

Home win to nil2%52.08
Away win to nil62%1.63

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%1317.44
Home -1.51%154.38
Home -0.53%30.07
Home +0.517%5.86
Home +1.538%2.62
Home +2.562%1.62

Correct score (top 8)

0-217%5.77
0-315%6.89
0-113%7.64
0-49%10.98
1-27%14.80
0-06%16.15
1-16%16.45
1-36%17.67

Half-time result

Home6%17.50
Draw33%3.05
Away62%1.62

Half-time goals

Over 0.573%1.37
Under 0.527%3.69
Over 1.538%2.66
Under 1.562%1.60

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home2%49.87
Home/Draw2%55.74
Home/Away2%52.21
Draw/Home2%54.77
Draw/Draw9%11.42
Draw/Away22%4.51
Away/Home<1%516.79
Away/Draw2%55.74
Away/Away60%1.68

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 8.557%1.74
Under 8.543%2.35
Over 9.544%2.26
Under 9.556%1.79
Over 10.532%3.11
Under 10.568%1.47
Over 11.522%4.55
Under 11.578%1.28
Over 12.514%7.07
Under 12.586%1.16

Expected total: 9.2

JO corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.559%1.70
Under 3.541%2.43
Over 4.539%2.55
Under 4.561%1.65
Over 5.523%4.30
Under 5.577%1.30
Over 6.512%8.16
Under 6.588%1.14

Expected total: 4.1

AR corners

Indicative
Over 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 2.572%1.38
Under 2.528%3.62
Over 3.552%1.93
Under 3.548%2.07
Over 4.532%3.09
Under 4.568%1.48
Over 5.518%5.62
Under 5.582%1.22

Expected total: 3.8

JO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

Ali Olwan (Attacker)13%7.94
Mohammed Abu Zurayq (Attacker)11%9.06
Mahmoud Al Mardi (Attacker)11%9.06
O. Al Fakhouri (Attacker)11%9.06
A. Azaizeh (Attacker)11%9.06
Nizar Al Rashdan (Midfielder)4%22.78
Baha' Abdel-Rahman Suleiman (?)4%26.18
Amer Shafi&apos; (?)4%26.18

Expected total: 0.7

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)53%1.89
J. Foyth (?)22%4.50
S. Agüero (?)22%4.50
P. Dybala (?)22%4.50
E. Andrada (?)22%4.50
P. Gómez (?)22%4.50
N. Valentini (?)22%4.50
T. Geralnik (?)22%4.50

Expected total: 2.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.39, away 2.51). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.