England vs DR Congo

Group null · Matchday 4

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group standings →Bracket →GB-ENG 100% · CD 100% to advance

England

66%

FT

2–1

DR Congo

12%

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Goals (3)

7'

B. Cipenga

DR Congo
75'

H. Kane

assist: A. Gordon

England
86'

H. Kane

England

Cards (2)

19'

J. Bellingham

England
27'

N. Sadiki

DR Congo

Substitutions (9)

61'

↑ A. Gordon for M. Rashford

England
61'

↑ B. Saka for N. Madueke

England
64'

↑ M. Elia for N. Mbuku

DR Congo
70'

↑ E. Eze for D. Spence

England
76'

↑ E. Kayembe for N. Mukau

DR Congo
76'

↑ T. Bongonda for B. Cipenga

DR Congo
89'

↑ J. Kayembe for A. Masuaku

DR Congo
89'

↑ F. Mayele for S. Moutoussamy

DR Congo
91'

↑ J. Stones for D. Rice

England

Match stats

60%Possession40%
16Shots6
7Shots on target2
2.04Expected goals0.76
5Corners3
9Fouls11
0Offsides4
1Saves5
91%Pass accuracy82%

Top performer

HK

H. Kane

England · 2 goals

Lineups

England4-2-3-1

DR Congo4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.50
Goals / match
1.25
1.50
Conceded / match
1.25
75%
BTTS rate
75%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.51
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.8
Corners / match
4.3
1.4
Yellows / match
1.3
65%
Possession
44%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

England wins

0

Draws

1

DR Congo wins

Last: England 0-1 Congo DR (2026-07-01)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

England

No known absences.

DR Congo

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

  • Result: England are strong favourites at 66%.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).

Most likely score 2-0 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+0.9%/-6.5%
Set pieces
+2.4%/-1.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

England

50%

Draw

50%

DR Congo

0%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

64·
Form
·36
60·
Attack
·40
60·
Defence
·40

Their advice: Double chance : England or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

England goals
7
12
10
13
9
9
6
5
0123456

DR Congo goals

Most likely: 2-0 13%, 1-0 12%, 1-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 52%

7
0
15
1
25
2
22
3
15
4
9
5
6
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
EnglandDR Congo

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win66%1.51
Draw22%4.56
Away win12%8.50

Double chance

Home or draw88%1.13
Home or away78%1.28
Draw or away34%2.97

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)85%1.18
Away (DNB)15%6.63

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08
Under 0.57%13.42
Over 1.578%1.29
Under 1.522%4.47
Over 2.552%1.91
Under 2.548%2.10
Over 3.530%3.31
Under 3.570%1.43
Over 4.515%6.76
Under 4.585%1.17

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11
Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals7%13.42
1 goals15%6.70
2 goals25%3.96
3 goals22%4.50
4 goals15%6.50
5 goals9%11.72
6+ goals6%15.95

Both teams to score

Yes46%2.18
No54%1.85

Team totals

Home over 0.587%1.15
Home over 1.561%1.64
Home over 2.534%2.96
Away over 0.551%1.95
Away over 1.516%6.16
Away over 2.54%27.40

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet49%2.05
Away clean sheet13%7.79

Win to nil

Home win to nil41%2.42
Away win to nil5%18.58

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.523%4.43
Home -1.544%2.30
Home -0.567%1.49
Home +0.589%1.12
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-013%7.59
1-012%8.59
1-110%9.59
2-19%10.55
3-09%11.09
0-07%13.42
3-16%15.42
4-05%21.60

Half-time result

Home49%2.02
Draw38%2.63
Away13%7.93

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.40
Under 0.529%3.48
Over 1.535%2.82
Under 1.565%1.55

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home45%2.22
Home/Draw4%28.12
Home/Away1%137.26
Draw/Home21%4.84
Draw/Draw12%8.07
Draw/Away5%20.37
Away/Home3%36.91
Away/Draw4%28.12
Away/Away6%15.78

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 8.565%1.53
Under 8.535%2.88
Over 9.553%1.90
Under 9.547%2.11
Over 10.540%2.49
Under 10.560%1.67
Over 11.529%3.46
Under 11.571%1.41
Over 12.520%5.08
Under 12.580%1.25

Expected total: 9.9

GB-ENG corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.28
Under 3.522%4.63
Over 4.562%1.61
Under 4.538%2.65
Over 5.545%2.22
Under 5.555%1.82
Over 6.529%3.39
Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

CD corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.566%1.52
Under 3.534%2.92
Over 4.547%2.14
Under 4.553%1.88
Over 5.530%3.37
Under 5.570%1.42
Over 6.517%5.92
Under 6.583%1.20

Expected total: 4.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Over 3.531%3.23
Under 3.569%1.45
Over 4.515%6.53
Under 4.585%1.18
Over 5.57%15.26
Under 5.593%1.07

Expected total: 2.8

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)46%2.17
D. Rose (?)19%5.39
D. Alli (?)19%5.39

Expected total: 1.0

CD anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=2)

F. Mayele (Attacker)22%4.55
B. Cipenga (Attacker)22%4.55
S. Banza (Attacker)19%5.15
G. Kakuta (Attacker)19%5.15
W. Balikwisha (?)7%14.41
S. Bastien (?)7%14.41
M. Bokadi (?)7%14.41
P. M'Poku (?)7%14.41

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.05, away 0.72). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.