Portugal vs Croatia

Group null · Matchday 4

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group standings →Bracket →PT 100% · HR 100% to advance

Portugal

52%

2–1

Croatia

20%

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Goals (3)

53'

I. Perisic

Croatia

68'

C. Ronaldopen

Portugal

90'

G. Ramos

assist: R. Leao

Portugal

Cards (3)

17'

R. Dias

Portugal

59'

L. Modric

Croatia

98'

I. Perisic

Croatia

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ I. Matanovic for A. Budimir

Croatia

62'

↑ B. Silva for Vitinha

Portugal

63'

↑ N. Semedo for B. Fernandes

Portugal

63'

↑ G. Ramos for J. Cancelo

Portugal

63'

↑ F. Conceicao for P. Neto

Portugal

68'

↑ M. Pasalic for M. Baturina

Croatia

81'

↑ R. Neves for C. Ronaldo

Portugal

96'

↑ A. Kramaric for M. Kovacic

Croatia

92'

↑ J. Gvardiol for N. Vlasic

Croatia

Match stats

60%Possession40%

15Shots14

3Shots on target6

2.18Expected goals1.34

9Corners5

6Fouls12

1Offsides4

5Saves2

91%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

I. Perisic

Croatia · 1 goal

Lineups

Portugal4-2-3-1

Croatia4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

1.60

Goals / match

1.50

0.60

Conceded / match

1.75

40%

BTTS rate

75%

40%

Clean sheet rate

25%

3.07

xG / match (club)

2.42

7.1

Corners / match

6.0

1.7

Yellows / match

1.6

66%

Possession

60%

Portugal · last 5

DR Congo1-117 June WH

Uzbekistan5-023 June DA

Colombia0-027 June WH

Croatia · last 4

Head to head · 8 meetings

Portugal wins

Draws

Croatia wins

Last: Croatia 1-1 Portugal (2024-11-18)avg 2.6 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Portugal

No known absences.

Croatia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Portugal are slight favourites at 52%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 46%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Head-to-head

+3.4%/-3.4%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Club xG form

+0.6%/+0.5%

Set pieces

+0.6%/+0.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Portugal

45%

Draw

45%

Croatia

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

45·

Form

·55

55·

Attack

·45

83·

Defence

·17

Their advice: Double chance : Portugal or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Portugal

Croatia

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Portugal goals

0123456

Croatia goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 1-0 12%, 2-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 46%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

PortugalCroatia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win52%1.94

Draw28%3.56

Away win20%4.90

Double chance

Home or draw80%1.26

Home or away72%1.39

Draw or away48%2.06

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)72%1.40

Away (DNB)28%3.52

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%10.32

Over 1.573%1.37

Under 1.527%3.69

Over 2.546%2.18

Under 2.554%1.84

Over 3.524%4.10

Under 3.576%1.32

Over 4.511%9.12

Under 4.589%1.12

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.15

Even53%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals10%10.32

1 goals17%5.75

2 goals27%3.68

3 goals21%4.67

4 goals13%7.46

5 goals7%14.88

6+ goals4%23.57

Both teams to score

Yes49%2.04

No51%1.96

Team totals

Home over 0.580%1.25

Home over 1.548%2.10

Home over 2.522%4.59

Away over 0.559%1.68

Away over 1.523%4.38

Away over 2.56%15.83

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet41%2.46

Away clean sheet20%4.97

Win to nil

Home win to nil31%3.24

Away win to nil10%9.60

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.512%8.22

Home -1.529%3.48

Home -0.552%1.91

Home +0.580%1.24

Home +1.593%1.08

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.50

1-012%8.66

2-011%9.53

0-010%10.32

2-19%10.56

0-16%17.17

3-06%17.82

1-25%18.78

Half-time result

Home39%2.57

Draw43%2.35

Away19%5.40

Half-time goals

Over 0.568%1.48

Under 0.532%3.09

Over 1.531%3.21

Under 1.569%1.45

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home33%3.01

Home/Draw5%22.17

Home/Away1%83.21

Draw/Home18%5.48

Draw/Draw16%6.26

Draw/Away8%11.94

Away/Home2%40.78

Away/Draw5%22.17

Away/Away12%8.64

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.587%1.15

Under 8.513%7.58

Over 9.579%1.27

Under 9.521%4.74

Over 10.569%1.45

Under 10.531%3.23

Over 11.558%1.72

Under 11.542%2.38

Over 12.547%2.14

Under 12.553%1.88

Expected total: 12.4

PT corners

Indicative

Over 3.591%1.10

Under 3.59%11.09

Over 4.581%1.23

Under 4.519%5.33

Over 5.568%1.47

Under 5.532%3.12

Over 6.553%1.90

Under 6.547%2.11

Expected total: 6.8

HR corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.04

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.83

Over 5.548%2.10

Under 5.552%1.91

Over 6.532%3.14

Under 6.568%1.47

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.565%1.55

Under 2.535%2.83

Over 3.543%2.35

Under 3.557%1.74

Over 4.524%4.12

Under 4.576%1.32

Over 5.512%8.28

Under 5.588%1.14

Expected total: 3.3

PT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

João Félix (Attacker)38%2.62

Raphaël Guerreiro (?)15%6.75

João Mário (?)15%6.75

Mário Rui (?)15%6.75

Pepe (?)15%6.75

Diogo Leite (?)15%6.75

Éderzito António Macedo Lopes (?)15%6.75

Bruno Varela (?)15%6.75

Expected total: 1.6

HR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Mitrović (?)9%11.59

I. Rakitić (?)9%11.59

Šime Vrsaljko (?)9%11.59

M. Brozović (?)9%11.59

D. Lovren (?)9%11.59

M. Livaja (?)9%11.59

L. Modrić (Midfielder)9%11.59

F. Benković (?)9%11.59

Expected total: 0.7

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.60, away 0.90). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.