Switzerland vs Algeria

Group null · Matchday 4

· BC Place, Vancouver

Group standings →Bracket →CH 100% · DZ 100% to advance

Switzerland

56%

FT

2–0

Algeria

17%

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Goals (2)

10'

B. Embolo

assist: J. Manzambi

Switzerland
46'

D. Ndoye

Switzerland

Cards (2)

36'

F. Chaibi

Algeria
72'

H. Boudaoui

Algeria

Substitutions (10)

58'

↑ Jaouen Hadjam for Houssem Aouar

Algeria
58'

↑ Amine Gouiri for Ramiz Zerrouki

Algeria
71'

↑ N. Okafor for J. Manzambi

Switzerland
71'

↑ F. Rieder for R. Vargas

Switzerland
71'

↑ H. Boudaoui for N. Bentaleb

Algeria
71'

↑ A. Hadj Moussa for R. Mahrez

Algeria
82'

↑ Adil Boulbina for Rafik Belghali

Algeria
83'

↑ Zeki Amdouni for Breel Embolo

Switzerland
87'

↑ S. Widmer for D. Zakaria

Switzerland
87'

↑ M. Aebischer for D. Ndoye

Switzerland

Match stats

44%Possession56%
9Shots7
4Shots on target2
2.40Expected goals0.71
4Corners2
10Fouls11
0Offsides2
2Saves1
81%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

BE

B. Embolo

Switzerland · 1 goal

Lineups

Switzerland4-2-3-1

Algeria4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 4

1.67
Goals / match
1.25
1.00
Conceded / match
2.25
67%
BTTS rate
50%
33%
Clean sheet rate
0%
1.18
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.4
Corners / match
6.2
1.9
Yellows / match
2.3
60%
Possession
60%

Head to head · 1 meetings

1

Switzerland wins

0

Draws

0

Algeria wins

Last: Switzerland 1-0 Algeria (2026-07-03)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Switzerland

No known absences.

Algeria

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Switzerland are slight favourites at 56%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 46%).

Most likely score 1-1 (13%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
-3.0%/0.0%
Club xG form
-2.9%/-4.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Switzerland

45%

Draw

45%

Algeria

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

64·
Form
·36
58·
Attack
·42
70·
Defence
·30

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Switzerland or draw and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Switzerland goals
10
5
12
13
5
12
10
7
5
0123456

Algeria goals

Most likely: 1-1 13%, 1-0 12%, 2-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 45%

10
0
18
1
27
2
21
3
13
4
7
5
4
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
SwitzerlandAlgeria

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win56%1.79
Draw27%3.72
Away win17%5.79

Double chance

Home or draw83%1.21
Home or away73%1.37
Draw or away44%2.27

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)76%1.31
Away (DNB)24%4.23

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11
Under 0.510%10.37
Over 1.573%1.37
Under 1.527%3.68
Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84
Over 3.524%4.11
Under 3.576%1.32
Over 4.511%9.16
Under 4.589%1.12

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.14
Even53%1.88

Exact total goals

0 goals10%10.37
1 goals18%5.69
2 goals27%3.69
3 goals21%4.68
4 goals13%7.47
5 goals7%14.93
6+ goals4%23.69

Both teams to score

Yes47%2.13
No53%1.88

Team totals

Home over 0.582%1.23
Home over 1.550%1.99
Home over 2.524%4.16
Away over 0.556%1.80
Away over 1.520%5.10
Away over 2.55%20.28

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet44%2.25
Away clean sheet18%5.42

Win to nil

Home win to nil35%2.88
Away win to nil9%11.36

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.514%6.94
Home -1.532%3.08
Home -0.557%1.76
Home +0.584%1.20
Home +1.595%1.06
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-113%7.87
1-012%8.08
2-012%8.56
0-010%10.37
2-110%10.52
3-07%15.19
3-15%18.68
0-15%19.26

Half-time result

Home42%2.40
Draw42%2.38
Away16%6.14

Half-time goals

Over 0.568%1.48
Under 0.532%3.08
Over 1.531%3.22
Under 1.569%1.45

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home36%2.75
Home/Draw4%23.77
Home/Away1%100.19
Draw/Home19%5.17
Draw/Draw16%6.44
Draw/Away7%13.85
Away/Home2%40.58
Away/Draw4%23.77
Away/Away10%10.41

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.582%1.22
Under 8.518%5.57
Over 9.573%1.38
Under 9.527%3.64
Over 10.561%1.63
Under 10.539%2.60
Over 11.550%2.01
Under 11.550%1.99
Over 12.538%2.61
Under 12.562%1.62

Expected total: 11.7

CH corners

Indicative
Over 3.582%1.21
Under 3.518%5.71
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.12
Over 5.551%1.95
Under 5.549%2.05
Over 6.535%2.83
Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

DZ corners

Indicative
Over 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.24
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61

Expected total: 5.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.577%1.29
Under 2.523%4.41
Over 3.558%1.72
Under 3.542%2.39
Over 4.539%2.59
Under 4.561%1.63
Over 5.523%4.40
Under 5.577%1.29

Expected total: 4.1

CH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

H. Seferović (?)16%6.43
K. Mbabu (?)16%6.43
M. Gavranović (?)16%6.43
S. Lichtsteiner (?)16%6.43
Y. Sommer (?)16%6.43
T. Klose (?)16%6.43
M. Lang (?)16%6.43
R. Freuler (Midfielder)16%6.43

Expected total: 1.4

DZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

A. Benbouali (Attacker)24%4.09
A. Boulbina (Attacker)22%4.62
F. Ghedjemis (Attacker)22%4.62
Y. Brahimi (?)8%12.80
I. Belfodil (?)8%12.80
Y. Atal (?)8%12.80
M. Belkhither (?)8%12.80
B. Bounedjah (?)8%12.80

Expected total: 1.2

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.69, away 0.81). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.