All matches
Argentina vs Cape Verde
Group null · Matchday 4
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Goals (5)
Cards (2)
68'
Cape Verde
K. Lenini
115'
Argentina
G. Montiel
Substitutions (11)
63'Argentina
↑ Nicolás González for Thiago Almada
63'Argentina
↑ Julián Alvarez for Lautaro Martínez
67'Cape Verde
↑ Dailon Rocha Livramento for Nuno Da Costa
67'Cape Verde
↑ Jamiro Monteiro for Laros Duarte
80'Cape Verde
↑ Hélio Varela for Jovane Cabral
80'Cape Verde
↑ Willy Semedo for Ryan Mendes
84'Argentina
↑ L. Paredes for R. de Paul
86'Argentina
↑ Nicolás Tagliafico for Facundo Medina
100'Cape Verde
↑ Gilson Tavares for Kevin Lenini
100'Cape Verde
↑ Yannick Semedo for Deroy Duarte
104'Argentina
↑ G. Montiel for N. Molina
Match stats
64%Possession36%
22Shots13
10Shots on target5
2.15Expected goals0.36
8Corners7
13Fouls12
3Offsides2
3Saves8
92%Pass accuracy86%
Top performer
LML. Messi
Argentina · 1 goal
Lineups
Argentina4-4-2
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 4
2.38
Goals / match
1.00
1.00
Conceded / match
1.25
62%
BTTS rate
50%
25%
Clean sheet rate
50%
2.22
xG / match (club)
0.00
5.3
Corners / match
4.7
1.4
Yellows / match
1.5
61%
Possession
51%
Argentina · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Argentina wins
1
Draws
0
Cape Verde wins
Last: Argentina 0-0 Cape Verde Islands (2026-07-03)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Argentina
No known absences.
Cape Verde
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Argentina are strong favourites at 71%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 48%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.
Most likely score 2-0 (16%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+1.2%/-4.5%
Set pieces
+1.0%/-0.7%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeArgentina
50%
Draw
50%
Cape Verde
0%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
75·
Form
·25
80·
Attack
·20
67·
Defence
·33
Their advice: Combo Winner : Argentina and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Argentina
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Argentina goals
9
14
9
16
8
11
6
6
0123456
Cape Verde goals
Most likely: 2-0 16%, 1-0 14%, 3-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 47%
90
171
262
223
144
75
46+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
ArgentinaCape Verde
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win71%1.41
Draw21%4.88
Away win8%11.96
Double chance
Home or draw92%1.09
Home or away80%1.26
Draw or away29%3.46
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)89%1.12
Away (DNB)11%9.51
Total goals
Over 0.591%1.09
Under 0.59%11.66
Over 1.574%1.35
Under 1.526%3.87
Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.92
Over 3.526%3.82
Under 3.574%1.35
Over 4.512%8.25
Under 4.588%1.14
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.10
Even52%1.91
Exact total goals
0 goals9%11.66
1 goals17%5.79
2 goals26%3.81
3 goals22%4.60
4 goals14%7.11
5 goals7%13.72
6+ goals5%20.71
Both teams to score
Yes37%2.68
No63%1.59
Team totals
Home over 0.587%1.15
Home over 1.561%1.64
Home over 2.534%2.96
Away over 0.542%2.41
Away over 1.510%9.84
Away over 2.52%57.64
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet58%1.71
Away clean sheet13%7.79
Win to nil
Home win to nil50%2.01
Away win to nil4%23.49
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.525%3.99
Home -1.548%2.10
Home -0.572%1.39
Home +0.593%1.08
Home +1.598%1.02
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
2-016%6.33
1-014%6.98
3-011%9.24
1-19%10.70
0-09%11.66
2-18%11.78
3-16%17.21
4-06%18.01
Half-time result
Home52%1.92
Draw39%2.60
Away9%10.56
Half-time goals
Over 0.569%1.45
Under 0.531%3.21
Over 1.532%3.08
Under 1.568%1.48
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home49%2.05
Home/Draw3%34.97
Home/Away<1%230.97
Draw/Home22%4.51
Draw/Draw13%7.92
Draw/Away4%26.89
Away/Home2%44.69
Away/Draw3%34.97
Away/Away4%22.87
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 8.566%1.52
Under 8.534%2.93
Over 9.553%1.88
Under 9.547%2.14
Over 10.541%2.45
Under 10.559%1.69
Over 11.530%3.39
Under 11.570%1.42
Over 12.520%4.95
Under 12.580%1.25
Expected total: 9.9
AR corners
IndicativeOver 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34
Expected total: 5.1
CV corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 2.564%1.56
Under 2.536%2.80
Over 3.542%2.37
Under 3.558%1.73
Over 4.524%4.17
Under 4.576%1.32
Over 5.512%8.43
Under 5.588%1.13
Expected total: 3.3
AR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
N. González (Attacker)46%2.17
J. Foyth (?)19%5.39
S. Agüero (?)19%5.39
P. Dybala (?)19%5.39
E. Andrada (?)19%5.39
P. Gómez (?)19%5.39
N. Valentini (?)19%5.39
T. Geralnik (?)19%5.39
Expected total: 2.0
CV anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Gilson Benchimol (Attacker)15%6.72
D. Livramento (Attacker)15%6.72
Kevin Pina (Midfielder)6%16.69
Jovane Cabral (Midfielder)5%19.12
Zé Luís (?)5%19.12
Steven Pereira (?)5%19.12
Patrick Andrade (?)5%19.12
Ludovic Soares (?)5%19.12
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.05, away 0.54). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.