All matches
Uruguay vs Cape Verde
Group H · Matchday 2
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Goals (4)
Cards (4)
5'
Cape Verde
S. Lopes Cabral
20'
Uruguay
R. Bentancur
58'Uruguay
M. Olivera
93'Cape Verde
D. Borges
Substitutions (8)
46'Cape Verde
↑ D. Duarte for T. Arcanjo
58'Cape Verde
↑ H. Varela for G. Rodrigues
58'Cape Verde
↑ N. Da Costa for Benchimol
70'Uruguay
↑ D. Nunez for F. Vinas
70'Uruguay
↑ N. de la Cruz for M. Ugarte
71'Cape Verde
↑ L. Duarte for K. Lenini
80'Cape Verde
↑ Y. Semedo for J. Monteiro
81'Uruguay
↑ B. Rodriguez for M. Araujo
Match stats
66%Possession34%
16Shots7
2Shots on target2
2.28Expected goals0.77
11Corners3
8Fouls4
3Offsides0
83%Pass accuracy74%
Top performer
MAM. Araujo
Uruguay · 1 goal
Lineups
Uruguay4-2-3-1
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group H. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 4
1.00
Goals / match
1.00
1.33
Conceded / match
1.25
67%
BTTS rate
50%
0%
Clean sheet rate
50%
1.67
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.2
Corners / match
4.7
1.4
Yellows / match
1.5
49%
Possession
51%
Uruguay · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Uruguay wins
0
Draws
1
Cape Verde wins
Last: Uruguay 0-1 Cape Verde Islands (2026-06-21)avg 1.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Uruguay
No known absences.
Cape Verde
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Uruguay are slight favourites at 59%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (58%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.
Most likely score 1-0 (14%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-1.4%/-5.1%
Travel
-3.0%/0.0%
Set pieces
+1.6%/-1.2%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeUruguay
35%
Draw
35%
Cape Verde
30%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
100·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·100
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Uruguay or draw and -2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Uruguay
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Uruguay goals
11
5
14
12
13
9
7
5
0123456
Cape Verde goals
Most likely: 1-0 14%, 2-0 13%, 1-1 12%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 42%
110
201
282
213
124
65
36+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
UruguayCape Verde
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win59%1.71
Draw27%3.73
Away win15%6.82
Double chance
Home or draw85%1.17
Home or away73%1.37
Draw or away41%2.41
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)80%1.25
Away (DNB)20%4.99
Total goals
Over 0.589%1.12
Under 0.511%9.18
Over 1.570%1.44
Under 1.530%3.29
Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Over 3.521%4.71
Under 3.579%1.27
Over 4.59%11.06
Under 4.591%1.10
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.14
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals11%9.18
1 goals20%5.13
2 goals28%3.61
3 goals21%4.84
4 goals12%8.22
5 goals6%17.44
6+ goals3%30.22
Both teams to score
Yes42%2.39
No58%1.72
Team totals
Home over 0.581%1.23
Home over 1.550%2.01
Home over 2.523%4.27
Away over 0.550%2.01
Away over 1.515%6.58
Away over 2.53%30.47
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet50%1.99
Away clean sheet19%5.30
Win to nil
Home win to nil39%2.54
Away win to nil8%12.52
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.515%6.60
Home -1.534%2.93
Home -0.560%1.68
Home +0.586%1.16
Home +1.596%1.04
Home +2.599%1.01
Correct score (top 8)
1-014%6.95
2-013%7.59
1-112%8.13
0-011%9.18
2-19%11.02
3-07%13.66
0-15%19.55
3-15%19.83
Half-time result
Home43%2.34
Draw43%2.32
Away14%7.13
Half-time goals
Over 0.565%1.53
Under 0.535%2.89
Over 1.529%3.49
Under 1.571%1.40
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home38%2.62
Home/Draw4%26.21
Home/Away1%131.52
Draw/Home21%4.88
Draw/Draw16%6.14
Draw/Away6%15.67
Away/Home2%44.86
Away/Draw4%26.21
Away/Away8%12.52
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 8.556%1.80
Under 8.544%2.25
Over 9.542%2.36
Under 9.558%1.74
Over 10.530%3.28
Under 10.570%1.44
Over 11.521%4.86
Under 11.579%1.26
Over 12.513%7.64
Under 12.587%1.15
Expected total: 9.1
UY corners
IndicativeOver 3.562%1.62
Under 3.538%2.62
Over 4.543%2.35
Under 4.557%1.74
Over 5.526%3.85
Under 5.574%1.35
Over 6.514%7.07
Under 6.586%1.16
Expected total: 4.3
CV corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Over 2.560%1.68
Under 2.540%2.47
Over 3.537%2.69
Under 3.563%1.59
Over 4.520%5.03
Under 4.580%1.25
Over 5.59%10.80
Under 5.591%1.10
Expected total: 3.1
UY anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
D. Godín (?)15%6.51
G. Pereiro (?)15%6.51
M. Cáceres (?)15%6.51
S. Coates (?)15%6.51
M. Campaña (?)15%6.51
M. Silva (?)15%6.51
N. Nández (?)15%6.51
M. Gómez (?)15%6.51
Expected total: 1.3
CV anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Gilson Benchimol (Attacker)19%5.36
D. Livramento (Attacker)19%5.36
Kevin Pina (Midfielder)8%13.12
Jovane Cabral (Midfielder)7%15.02
Zé Luís (?)7%15.02
Steven Pereira (?)7%15.02
Patrick Andrade (?)7%15.02
Ludovic Soares (?)7%15.02
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.67, away 0.69). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.