Uruguay vs Spain

Group H · Matchday 3

· Estadio Akron, Guadalajara

Group H standings →Bracket →UY 0% · ES 100% to advance

Uruguay

10%

0–1

Spain

67%

Share card

Goals (1)

42'

A. Baena

assist: M. Llorente

Spain

Cards (5)

46'

A. Baena

Spain

54'

J. Sanabria

Uruguay

58'

G. Varela

Uruguay

93'

Nicolás de la Cruz

Uruguay

95'

Agustín Canobbio

Uruguay

Substitutions (9)

45'

↑ N. de la Cruz for M. Ugarte

Uruguay

46'

↑ S. Rochet for F. Muslera

Uruguay

57'

↑ F. Vinas for F. Valverde

Uruguay

60'

↑ Fabián Ruiz for Pedri

Spain

60'

↑ Daniel Olmo Carvajal for Mikel Merino

Spain

66'

↑ Y. Pino for A. Baena

Spain

70'

↑ B. Rodriguez for J. Sanabria

Uruguay

76'

↑ F. Torres for M. Oyarzabal

Spain

76'

↑ N. Williams for Lamine Yamal

Spain

Match stats

33%Possession67%

5Shots6

1Shots on target1

0.20Expected goals0.86

1Corners6

13Fouls14

5Offsides2

0Saves2

76%Pass accuracy89%

Top performer

A. Baena

Spain · 1 goal

Lineups

Uruguay4-2-3-1

Spain4-3-3

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 3 · away 8

1.00

Goals / match

1.75

1.33

Conceded / match

0.12

67%

BTTS rate

12%

Clean sheet rate

88%

1.67

xG / match (club)

2.70

4.2

Corners / match

6.3

1.4

Yellows / match

1.8

49%

Possession

68%

Uruguay · last 3

Saudi Arabia1-115 June DH

Cape Verde2-221 June LH

Spain · last 5

Head to head · 1 meetings

Uruguay wins

Draws

Spain wins

Last: Spain 2-1 Uruguay (2013-06-16)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Uruguay

No known absences.

Spain

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Spain are strong favourites at 67%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 45%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 38%.

Most likely score 0-2 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Head-to-head

-2.0%/+2.0%

Club xG form

-4.7%/-1.1%

Set pieces

+0.6%/-1.4%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Uruguay

10%

Draw

45%

Spain

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

33·

Form

·67

43·

Attack

·57

0·

Defence

·100

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Spain

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Uruguay goals

0123456

Spain goals

Most likely: 0-2 15%, 0-1 15%, 1-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 44%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

UruguaySpain

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win10%10.02

Draw23%4.39

Away win67%1.49

Double chance

Home or draw33%3.05

Home or away77%1.30

Draw or away90%1.11

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)13%7.74

Away (DNB)87%1.15

Total goals

Over 0.590%1.11

Under 0.510%10.31

Over 1.572%1.39

Under 1.528%3.54

Over 2.545%2.24

Under 2.555%1.81

Over 3.523%4.26

Under 3.577%1.31

Over 4.510%9.61

Under 4.590%1.12

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals10%10.31

1 goals19%5.38

2 goals27%3.70

3 goals21%4.71

4 goals13%7.65

5 goals6%15.53

6+ goals4%25.22

Both teams to score

Yes38%2.64

No62%1.61

Team totals

Home over 0.543%2.31

Home over 1.511%9.02

Home over 2.52%50.28

Away over 0.585%1.18

Away over 1.557%1.77

Away over 2.530%3.38

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet15%6.67

Away clean sheet57%1.76

Win to nil

Home win to nil5%18.91

Away win to nil47%2.12

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%260.11

Home -1.52%43.36

Home -0.59%11.08

Home +0.532%3.14

Home +1.557%1.75

Home +2.579%1.27

Correct score (top 8)

0-215%6.52

0-115%6.68

1-110%9.68

0-010%10.31

0-310%10.31

1-29%11.53

1-35%18.22

0-45%21.73

Half-time result

Home11%9.43

Draw41%2.46

Away49%2.05

Half-time goals

Over 0.567%1.49

Under 0.533%3.03

Over 1.530%3.29

Under 1.570%1.44

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home5%18.97

Home/Draw3%31.90

Home/Away2%45.47

Draw/Home4%22.51

Draw/Draw14%7.07

Draw/Away22%4.55

Away/Home1%198.48

Away/Draw3%31.90

Away/Away45%2.21

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.575%1.33

Under 8.525%4.07

Over 9.564%1.55

Under 9.536%2.80

Over 10.552%1.91

Under 10.548%2.09

Over 11.540%2.48

Under 11.560%1.68

Over 12.530%3.39

Under 12.570%1.42

Expected total: 10.8

UY corners

Indicative

Over 3.562%1.62

Under 3.538%2.62

Over 4.543%2.35

Under 4.557%1.74

Over 5.526%3.85

Under 5.574%1.35

Over 6.514%7.07

Under 6.586%1.16

Expected total: 4.3

ES corners

Indicative

Over 3.589%1.12

Under 3.511%9.36

Over 4.578%1.27

Under 4.522%4.64

Over 5.564%1.56

Under 5.536%2.79

Over 6.549%2.06

Under 6.551%1.94

Expected total: 6.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.561%1.64

Under 2.539%2.56

Over 3.539%2.59

Under 3.561%1.63

Over 4.521%4.77

Under 4.579%1.27

Over 5.510%10.06

Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.1

UY anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

D. Godín (?)6%18.18

G. Pereiro (?)6%18.18

M. Cáceres (?)6%18.18

S. Coates (?)6%18.18

M. Campaña (?)6%18.18

M. Silva (?)6%18.18

N. Nández (?)6%18.18

M. Gómez (?)6%18.18

Expected total: 0.5

ES anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Paco Alcácer (?)17%5.78

Jordi Alba (?)17%5.78

Sergi Roberto (?)17%5.78

Sergio Busquets (?)17%5.78

Raúl Albiol (?)17%5.78

Dani Carvajal (?)17%5.78

Nacho (?)17%5.78

Dani Ceballos (?)17%5.78

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.57, away 1.90). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.