Argentina vs Cape Verde
Group null · Matchday 4
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Goals (5)
Cards (2)
K. Lenini
G. Montiel
Substitutions (11)
↑ Nicolás González for Thiago Almada
↑ Julián Alvarez for Lautaro Martínez
↑ Dailon Rocha Livramento for Nuno Da Costa
↑ Jamiro Monteiro for Laros Duarte
↑ Hélio Varela for Jovane Cabral
↑ Willy Semedo for Ryan Mendes
↑ L. Paredes for R. de Paul
↑ Nicolás Tagliafico for Facundo Medina
↑ Gilson Tavares for Kevin Lenini
↑ Yannick Semedo for Deroy Duarte
↑ G. Montiel for N. Molina
Match stats
Top performer
LML. Messi
Argentina · 1 goal
Lineups
Argentina4-4-2
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 4
Argentina · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Argentina wins
1
Draws
0
Cape Verde wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Argentina
No known absences.
Cape Verde
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Argentina are strong favourites at 71%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 48%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeArgentina
50%
Draw
50%
Cape Verde
0%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Winner : Argentina and -3.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Argentina
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Cape Verde goals
Most likely: 2-0 16%, 1-0 14%, 3-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 47%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 9.9
AR corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.1
CV corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Expected total: 3.3
AR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 2.0
CV anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 0.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.05, away 0.54). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.