Paraguay vs France

Group null · Matchday 5

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group standings →Bracket →PY 100% · FR 100% to advance

Paraguay

0–1

France

70%

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Goals (1)

70'

K. Mbappepen

France

Cards (3)

19'

Bradley Barcola

France

81'

M. Kone

France

97'

M. Olise

France

Substitutions (6)

58'

↑ J. Canale for O. Alderete

Paraguay

61'

↑ G. Caballero for J. Enciso

Paraguay

61'

↑ D. Doue for B. Barcola

France

71'

↑ Mauricio for G. Gomez

Paraguay

71'

↑ G. Avalos for M. Almiron

Paraguay

84'

↑ R. Cherki for O. Dembele

France

Match stats

24%Possession76%

5Shots15

1Shots on target5

0.15Expected goals1.36

1Corners11

12Fouls10

4Saves1

54%Pass accuracy90%

Top performer

K. Mbappe

France · 1 goal

Lineups

Paraguay5-4-1

France4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 8

0.60

Goals / match

2.50

1.20

Conceded / match

1.25

40%

BTTS rate

38%

40%

Clean sheet rate

50%

0.90

xG / match (club)

2.23

4.0

Corners / match

6.0

2.6

Yellows / match

1.4

47%

Possession

58%

Paraguay · last 5

United States4-113 June WA

Turkey0-120 June DH

Australia0-026 June DA

France · last 5

Head to head · 1 meetings

Paraguay wins

Draws

France wins

Last: France 5-0 Paraguay (2017-06-02)avg 5.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Paraguay

No known absences.

France

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: France are strong favourites at 70%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (59%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 31%.

Most likely score 0-1 (18%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+6.0%/-6.0%

Club xG form

-7.4%/+2.3%

Set pieces

-1.0%/+1.7%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Paraguay

Draw

50%

France

50%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

37·

Form

·63

24·

Attack

·76

29·

Defence

·71

Their advice: Winner : France

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Paraguay goals

0123456

France goals

Most likely: 0-1 18%, 0-2 17%, 0-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 40%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

ParaguayFrance

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win8%12.95

Draw22%4.52

Away win70%1.43

Double chance

Home or draw30%3.35

Home or away78%1.28

Draw or away92%1.08

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)10%10.08

Away (DNB)90%1.11

Total goals

Over 0.589%1.12

Under 0.511%9.05

Over 1.568%1.47

Under 1.532%3.13

Over 2.541%2.47

Under 2.560%1.68

Over 3.520%4.96

Under 3.580%1.25

Over 4.58%11.87

Under 4.592%1.09

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals11%9.05

1 goals21%4.79

2 goals28%3.63

3 goals20%4.91

4 goals12%8.53

5 goals5%18.51

6+ goals3%33.13

Both teams to score

Yes31%3.21

No69%1.45

Team totals

Home over 0.536%2.81

Home over 1.57%13.78

Home over 2.51%97.61

Away over 0.584%1.18

Away over 1.556%1.80

Away over 2.529%3.49

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet16%6.45

Away clean sheet64%1.55

Win to nil

Home win to nil4%22.45

Away win to nil53%1.87

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.5<1%517.16

Home -1.51%68.83

Home -0.57%14.60

Home +0.529%3.45

Home +1.555%1.81

Home +2.578%1.28

Correct score (top 8)

0-118%5.70

0-217%5.76

0-011%9.05

0-311%9.28

1-19%10.81

1-28%13.10

0-45%19.91

1-35%21.08

Half-time result

Home8%11.90

Draw42%2.40

Away50%2.00

Half-time goals

Over 0.565%1.55

Under 0.535%2.82

Over 1.528%3.60

Under 1.572%1.38

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home4%25.10

Home/Draw3%38.39

Home/Away2%55.08

Draw/Home4%27.74

Draw/Draw15%6.75

Draw/Away23%4.31

Away/Home<1%309.34

Away/Draw3%38.39

Away/Away47%2.12

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.567%1.49

Under 8.533%3.05

Over 9.555%1.82

Under 9.545%2.21

Over 10.542%2.36

Under 10.558%1.73

Over 11.531%3.24

Under 11.569%1.45

Over 12.521%4.70

Under 12.579%1.27

Expected total: 10.1

PY corners

Indicative

Over 3.560%1.67

Under 3.540%2.48

Over 4.540%2.48

Under 4.560%1.67

Over 5.524%4.15

Under 5.576%1.32

Over 6.513%7.80

Under 6.587%1.15

Expected total: 4.2

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.574%1.35

Under 2.526%3.88

Over 3.554%1.85

Under 3.546%2.18

Over 4.535%2.89

Under 4.565%1.53

Over 5.519%5.13

Under 5.581%1.24

Expected total: 3.9

PY anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Romero (Attacker)12%8.08

L. Melgarejo (?)4%23.26

A. Silva (?)4%23.26

B. Valdez (?)4%23.26

S. Arzamendia (?)4%23.26

R. Rojas (?)4%23.26

C. González (?)4%23.26

G. Giménez (?)4%23.26

Expected total: 0.4

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)17%5.88

M. Diaby (?)17%5.88

K. Coman (?)17%5.88

L. Dubois (?)17%5.88

H. Aouar (Midfielder)17%5.88

N. Fekir (?)17%5.88

K. Benzema (?)17%5.88

B. Matuidi (?)17%5.88

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.44, away 1.86). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.