Mexico vs England

Group null · Matchday 5

· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Group standings →Bracket →MX 100% · GB-ENG 100% to advance

Mexico

28%

FT

2–3

England

45%

Share card

Goals (5)

36'

J. Bellingham

assist: B. Saka

England
38'

J. Bellingham

England
42'

J. Quinones

Mexico
60'

H. Kanepen

England
69'

R. Jimenezpen

Mexico

Cards (5)

1'

D. Rice

England
54'

J. Quansah

England
68'

M. Guehi

England
71'

J. Sanchez

Mexico
72'

N. O'Reilly

England

Substitutions (8)

45'

↑ Edson Álvarez for César Montes

Mexico
57'

↑ J. Stones for B. Saka

England
61'

↑ S. Gimenez for G. Mora

Mexico
61'

↑ B. Gutierrez for L. Romo

Mexico
74'

↑ Djed Spence for Nico O'Reilly

England
75'

↑ Dan Burn for Elliot Anderson

England
79'

↑ Álvaro Fidalgo for Jorge Sánchez

Mexico
81'

↑ Guillermo Martinez for Julián Quiñones

Mexico

Match stats

66%Possession34%
18Shots6
5Shots on target5
1.87Expected goals1.55
10Corners2
14Fouls7
1Offsides0
2Saves3
93%Pass accuracy80%

Top performer

JB

J. Bellingham

England · 1 goal

Lineups

Mexico4-3-3

England4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 8

2.00
Goals / match
2.50
0.60
Conceded / match
1.50
20%
BTTS rate
75%
80%
Clean sheet rate
25%
1.62
xG / match (club)
1.51
5.6
Corners / match
5.8
2.2
Yellows / match
1.4
57%
Possession
65%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Mexico wins

1

Draws

0

England wins

Last: Mexico 0-0 England (2026-07-06)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Mexico

No known absences.

England

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: England are slight favourites at 45%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 60% of the time.

  • Both score: Both teams to score is likely (63%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-5.0%/-1.1%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Set pieces
-0.8%/+2.1%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Mexico

45%

Draw

45%

England

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

55·
Form
·45
50·
Attack
·50
100·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Double chance : Mexico or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Mexico goals
6
6
7
4
5
12
9
6
4
7
6
0123456

England goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 1-2 9%, 2-1 7%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 60%

6
0
11
1
23
2
22
3
17
4
11
5
9
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
MexicoEngland

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win28%3.51
Draw26%3.81
Away win45%2.21

Double chance

Home or draw55%1.83
Home or away74%1.36
Draw or away72%1.40

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)39%2.59
Away (DNB)61%1.63

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%17.38
Over 1.583%1.20
Under 1.517%5.98
Over 2.560%1.65
Under 2.540%2.53
Over 3.538%2.62
Under 3.562%1.62
Over 4.521%4.84
Under 4.579%1.26

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12
Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals6%17.38
1 goals11%9.11
2 goals23%4.38
3 goals22%4.48
4 goals17%5.72
5 goals11%9.15
6+ goals10%10.28

Both teams to score

Yes63%1.59
No37%2.70

Team totals

Home over 0.574%1.35
Home over 1.539%2.55
Home over 2.516%6.41
Away over 0.583%1.21
Away over 1.553%1.89
Away over 2.526%3.82

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet17%5.88
Away clean sheet26%3.88

Win to nil

Home win to nil11%8.88
Away win to nil20%5.00

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.55%22.17
Home -1.513%7.75
Home -0.528%3.55
Home +0.554%1.85
Home +1.574%1.34
Home +2.589%1.13

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.40
1-29%10.72
2-17%14.01
0-27%14.54
0-16%15.63
2-26%15.82
0-06%17.38
1-36%18.17

Half-time result

Home25%3.93
Draw38%2.64
Away37%2.73

Half-time goals

Over 0.576%1.32
Under 0.524%4.08
Over 1.541%2.44
Under 1.559%1.70

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home17%5.84
Home/Draw5%19.03
Home/Away3%32.59
Draw/Home10%9.79
Draw/Draw13%7.88
Draw/Away15%6.66
Away/Home2%46.17
Away/Draw5%19.03
Away/Away29%3.42

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.576%1.32
Under 8.524%4.09
Over 9.564%1.55
Under 9.536%2.81
Over 10.552%1.91
Under 10.548%2.10
Over 11.540%2.47
Under 11.560%1.68
Over 12.530%3.38
Under 12.570%1.42

Expected total: 10.9

MX corners

Indicative
Over 3.580%1.26
Under 3.520%4.92
Over 4.564%1.56
Under 4.536%2.78
Over 5.547%2.13
Under 5.553%1.88
Over 6.531%3.21
Under 6.569%1.45

Expected total: 5.5

GB-ENG corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.28
Under 3.522%4.63
Over 4.562%1.61
Under 4.538%2.65
Over 5.545%2.22
Under 5.555%1.82
Over 6.529%3.39
Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.565%1.55
Under 2.535%2.83
Over 3.543%2.35
Under 3.557%1.74
Over 4.524%4.12
Under 4.576%1.32
Over 5.512%8.28
Under 5.588%1.14

Expected total: 3.3

MX anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

J. Quiñones (Midfielder)20%5.13
H. Lozano (?)13%7.89
A. Guardado (?)13%7.89
H. González (?)13%7.89
N. Araújo (?)13%7.89
M. Layún (?)13%7.89
H. Moreno (?)13%7.89
L. Rodríguez (?)13%7.89

Expected total: 1.2

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)41%2.43
D. Rose (?)16%6.16
D. Alli (?)16%6.16

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.36, away 1.77). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.