All matches
United States vs Belgium
Group null · Matchday 5
· Lumen Field, Seattle
Goals (5)
Cards (2)
35'
United States
W. McKennie
69'United States
M. Tillman
Substitutions (10)
21'
Belgium
↑ H. Vanaken for A. Onana
46'United States
↑ G. Reyna for S. Dest
59'United States
↑ S. Berhalter for C. Pulisic
67'Belgium
↑ J. Doku for D. Lukebakio
67'Belgium
↑ R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaere
72'United States
↑ R. Pepi for T. Adams
89'Belgium
↑ A. Saelemaekers for L. Trossard
89'Belgium
↑ A. Witsel for N. Raskin
92'United States
↑ H. Wright for F. Balogun
92'United States
↑ M. Arfsten for A. Robinson
Match stats
56%Possession44%
7Shots14
2Shots on target6
0.64Expected goals2.10
3Corners5
11Fouls9
0Offsides1
3Saves1
87%Pass accuracy81%
Top performer
CDC. De Ketelaere
Belgium · 2 goals
Lineups
United States4-3-3
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 5 · away 6
2.20
Goals / match
2.33
1.60
Conceded / match
1.17
60%
BTTS rate
83%
40%
Clean sheet rate
17%
2.51
xG / match (club)
2.41
6.1
Corners / match
7.3
1.2
Yellows / match
1.5
61%
Possession
60%
United States · last 5
Head to head · 2 meetings
0
United States wins
0
Draws
2
Belgium wins
Last: USA 2-5 Belgium (2026-03-28)avg 5.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
United States
No known absences.
Belgium
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Belgium are strong favourites at 61%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 61% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (57%).
Most likely score 1-1 (10%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Head-to-head
-2.0%/+2.0%
Club xG form
-2.5%/+1.2%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Set pieces
+0.6%/+0.8%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeUnited States
10%
Draw
45%
Belgium
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
53·
Form
·47
53·
Attack
·47
50·
Defence
·50
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Belgium
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
United States goals
5
8
10
7
10
10
7
5
5
0123456
Belgium goals
Most likely: 1-1 10%, 1-2 10%, 0-2 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 61%
50
111
222
223
184
115
96+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
United StatesBelgium
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win16%6.15
Draw23%4.44
Away win61%1.63
Double chance
Home or draw39%2.58
Home or away78%1.29
Draw or away84%1.19
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)21%4.76
Away (DNB)79%1.27
Total goals
Over 0.595%1.06
Under 0.55%18.44
Over 1.584%1.20
Under 1.516%6.09
Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.58
Over 3.539%2.57
Under 3.561%1.64
Over 4.521%4.70
Under 4.579%1.27
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.10
Even52%1.91
Exact total goals
0 goals5%18.44
1 goals11%9.09
2 goals22%4.47
3 goals22%4.48
4 goals18%5.67
5 goals11%8.96
6+ goals10%9.88
Both teams to score
Yes57%1.75
No43%2.34
Team totals
Home over 0.563%1.58
Home over 1.527%3.76
Home over 2.58%12.34
Away over 0.588%1.13
Away over 1.564%1.57
Away over 2.537%2.73
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet12%8.66
Away clean sheet37%2.73
Win to nil
Home win to nil6%16.33
Away win to nil31%3.20
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.52%65.46
Home -1.56%17.59
Home -0.515%6.52
Home +0.537%2.67
Home +1.560%1.68
Home +2.579%1.27
Correct score (top 8)
1-110%9.65
1-210%10.10
0-210%10.14
0-18%12.59
1-37%14.04
0-37%14.09
0-05%18.44
2-25%20.13
Half-time result
Home17%5.97
Draw36%2.79
Away47%2.11
Half-time goals
Over 0.576%1.32
Under 0.524%4.15
Over 1.542%2.40
Under 1.558%1.71
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home9%10.98
Home/Draw4%23.31
Home/Away3%29.81
Draw/Home6%16.18
Draw/Draw11%8.96
Draw/Away19%5.39
Away/Home1%80.52
Away/Draw4%23.31
Away/Away42%2.39
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.584%1.19
Under 8.516%6.28
Over 9.575%1.33
Under 9.525%4.03
Over 10.565%1.55
Under 10.535%2.83
Over 11.553%1.88
Under 11.547%2.13
Over 12.542%2.40
Under 12.558%1.72
Expected total: 11.9
US corners
IndicativeOver 3.578%1.29
Under 3.522%4.51
Over 4.562%1.63
Under 4.538%2.60
Over 5.544%2.27
Under 5.556%1.79
Over 6.529%3.48
Under 6.571%1.40
Expected total: 5.3
BE corners
IndicativeOver 3.590%1.12
Under 3.510%9.57
Over 4.579%1.27
Under 4.521%4.72
Over 5.565%1.55
Under 5.535%2.83
Over 6.549%2.04
Under 6.551%1.96
Expected total: 6.6
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.13
Over 3.531%3.26
Under 3.569%1.44
Over 4.515%6.60
Under 4.585%1.18
Over 5.56%15.46
Under 5.594%1.07
Expected total: 2.8
US anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Green (?)10%10.47
M. Fossey (?)10%10.47
A. Soñora (?)10%10.47
Chituru Ethan Odunze (?)10%10.47
J. Wynder (?)10%10.47
Expected total: 0.5
BE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Witsel (Midfielder)19%5.15
C. Ngonge (?)19%5.15
N. Chadli (?)19%5.15
Thomas Vermaelen (?)19%5.15
T. Alderweireld (?)19%5.15
J. Vertonghen (?)19%5.15
S. Mignolet (?)19%5.15
D. Mertens (?)19%5.15
Expected total: 1.7
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.00, away 2.16). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.