Argentina vs Egypt

Group null · Matchday 5

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group standings →Bracket →AR 100% · EG 100% to advance

Argentina

70%

3–2

Egypt

10%

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Goals (5)

15'

Y. Ibrahim

Egypt

67'

M. Ziko

assist: H. Hassan

Egypt

79'

C. Romero

assist: L. Messi

Argentina

83'

L. Messi

assist: G. Montiel

Argentina

92'

E. Fernandez

assist: L. Martinez

Argentina

Missed penalties (1)

21'

L. Messimiss

Argentina

Cards (5)

93'

M. Shobeir

Egypt

94'

H. Fathy

Egypt

98'

M. Attia

Egypt

99'

H. Hassan

Egypt

102'

H. Hassan

Egypt

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ H. Fathy for E. Ashour

Egypt

66'

↑ N. Gonzalez for N. Tagliafico

Argentina

66'

↑ L. Martinez for R. de Paul

Argentina

73'

↑ G. Montiel for N. Molina

Argentina

73'

↑ Trezeguet for H. Hassan

Egypt

80'

↑ O. Marmoush for M. Ziko

Egypt

95'

↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero

Argentina

95'

↑ F. Medina for J. Alvarez

Argentina

96'

↑ Zizo for M. Lasheen

Egypt

Match stats

64%Possession36%

19Shots5

7Shots on target2

2.90Expected goals0.97

6Corners1

13Fouls11

3Offsides0

0Saves4

90%Pass accuracy83%

Top performer

L. Messi

Argentina · 1 goal

Lineups

Argentina4-4-2

Egypt4-4-2

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 5

2.38

Goals / match

1.60

1.00

Conceded / match

1.40

62%

BTTS rate

100%

25%

Clean sheet rate

2.22

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.3

Corners / match

4.8

1.4

Yellows / match

1.9

61%

Possession

52%

Argentina · last 5

Cape Verde3-23 July WH

Egypt3-27 July WH

Switzerland3-112 July WA

England1-215 July LA

Spain1-019 July

Egypt · last 5

Belgium1-115 June WA

New Zealand1-322 June DH

Iran1-127 June DA

Australia1-13 July LA

Argentina3-27 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Argentina wins

Draws

Egypt wins

Last: Argentina 0-0 Egypt (2026-07-07)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Argentina

No known absences.

Egypt

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Argentina are strong favourites at 70%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.

Most likely score 2-0 (14%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+0.2%/-4.3%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Argentina

45%

Draw

45%

Egypt

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

67·

Form

·33

65·

Attack

·35

57·

Defence

·43

Their advice: Double chance : Argentina or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Argentina

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Egypt

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Argentina goals

0123456

Egypt goals

Most likely: 2-0 14%, 1-0 13%, 3-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 51%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

ArgentinaEgypt

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win70%1.43

Draw20%4.89

Away win9%10.54

Double chance

Home or draw91%1.10

Home or away80%1.26

Draw or away30%3.34

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)88%1.14

Away (DNB)12%8.38

Total goals

Over 0.592%1.08

Under 0.58%13.23

Over 1.577%1.30

Under 1.523%4.34

Over 2.552%1.94

Under 2.548%2.07

Over 3.530%3.39

Under 3.571%1.42

Over 4.514%6.98

Under 4.586%1.17

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.10

Even52%1.91

Exact total goals

0 goals8%13.23

1 goals15%6.46

2 goals25%3.95

3 goals22%4.52

4 goals15%6.59

5 goals8%12.02

6+ goals6%16.65

Both teams to score

Yes42%2.39

No58%1.72

Team totals

Home over 0.588%1.14

Home over 1.563%1.60

Home over 2.536%2.82

Away over 0.546%2.16

Away over 1.513%7.72

Away over 2.53%39.30

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet54%1.86

Away clean sheet12%8.31

Win to nil

Home win to nil46%2.17

Away win to nil4%22.37

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.525%3.96

Home -1.547%2.12

Home -0.571%1.41

Home +0.591%1.09

Home +1.598%1.02

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-014%6.91

1-013%7.96

3-010%9.79

1-110%10.40

2-19%11.09

0-08%13.23

3-16%15.71

4-05%18.49

Half-time result

Home52%1.93

Draw37%2.67

Away11%9.36

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.41

Under 0.529%3.43

Over 1.535%2.86

Under 1.565%1.54

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home48%2.08

Home/Draw3%31.90

Home/Away1%181.20

Draw/Home21%4.67

Draw/Draw12%8.37

Draw/Away4%24.57

Away/Home3%39.59

Away/Draw3%31.90

Away/Away5%19.92

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.566%1.52

Under 8.534%2.93

Over 9.553%1.88

Under 9.547%2.14

Over 10.541%2.45

Under 10.559%1.69

Over 11.529%3.39

Under 11.571%1.42

Over 12.520%4.96

Under 12.580%1.25

Expected total: 9.9

AR corners

Indicative

Over 3.575%1.33

Under 3.525%4.02

Over 4.558%1.72

Under 4.542%2.38

Over 5.540%2.47

Under 5.560%1.68

Over 6.526%3.92

Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

EG corners

Indicative

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.41

Over 4.553%1.90

Under 4.547%2.11

Over 5.535%2.85

Under 5.565%1.54

Over 6.521%4.76

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.570%1.43

Under 2.530%3.33

Over 3.549%2.05

Under 3.551%1.95

Over 4.530%3.38

Under 4.570%1.42

Over 5.516%6.34

Under 5.584%1.19

Expected total: 3.6

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)47%2.13

J. Foyth (?)19%5.24

S. Agüero (?)19%5.24

P. Dybala (?)19%5.24

E. Andrada (?)19%5.24

P. Gómez (?)19%5.24

N. Valentini (?)19%5.24

T. Geralnik (?)19%5.24

Expected total: 2.1

EG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=4)

Trézéguet (Attacker)19%5.17

Zizo (Attacker)17%5.87

Emam Ashour (Midfielder)8%12.85

Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)8%12.85

Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)7%14.47

Koka (?)6%16.56

Mahmoud Gennesh (?)6%16.56

Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)6%16.56

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.12, away 0.62). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.