Switzerland vs Colombia

Group null · Matchday 5

· BC Place, Vancouver

Group standings →Bracket →CH 100% · CO 100% to advance

Switzerland

20%

After Pens

0–0

Pens 4–3

Colombia

47%

Share card

Decided on penalties

0-0 after ET · 4-3 pens

Switzerland

Colombia

××

›Per-kick log

1Switzerland✓G. Xhaka
2Colombia✓J. Quintero
3Switzerland✓Z. Amdouni
4Colombia✗D. Sanchez
5Switzerland✗M. Akanji
6Colombia✓J. Campaz
7Switzerland✓C. Itten
8Colombia✗C. Hernandez
9Switzerland✓R. Vargas
10Colombia✓L. Diaz

Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (5)

51'

Granit Xhaka

Switzerland

59'

Denis Zakaria

Switzerland

60'

Luis Suárez

Colombia

95'

D. Sanchez

Colombia

105'

M. Muheim

Switzerland

Substitutions (11)

46'

↑ D. Sow for A. Jashari

Switzerland

66'

↑ Juan Quintero for James Rodríguez

Colombia

66'

↑ Jaminton Campaz for Jhon Arias

Colombia

71'

↑ Miro Muheim for Ricardo Rodríguez

Switzerland

82'

↑ C. Hernandez for L. Suarez

Colombia

82'

↑ R. Rios for J. Lerma

Colombia

87'

↑ C. Itten for B. Embolo

Switzerland

87'

↑ S. Widmer for D. Zakaria

Switzerland

92'

↑ R. Vargas for D. Ndoye

Switzerland

103'

↑ Z. Amdouni for F. Rieder

Switzerland

119'

↑ Y. Mina for J. Lucumi

Colombia

Match stats

49%Possession51%

2Shots5

2Shots on target1

0.06Expected goals0.25

1Corners4

6Fouls6

1Offsides1

1Saves2

88%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

J. Quintero

Colombia · 1 goal

Lineups

Switzerland4-2-3-1

Colombia4-3-3

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 5

1.67

Goals / match

1.00

Conceded / match

0.20

67%

BTTS rate

20%

33%

Clean sheet rate

80%

1.18

xG / match (club)

1.62

5.4

Corners / match

4.5

1.9

Yellows / match

2.2

60%

Possession

54%

Switzerland · last 5

Bosnia and Herzegovina4-118 June WH

Colombia · last 5

Uzbekistan1-318 June WH

DR Congo1-024 June DH

Portugal0-027 June WH

Ghana1-04 July DA

Switzerland0-07 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Switzerland wins

Draws

Colombia wins

Last: Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (2026-07-07)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Switzerland

No known absences.

Colombia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Colombia are slight favourites at 47%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (67%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.

Most likely score 0-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

-3.0%/0.0%

Club xG form

-4.7%/-4.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Switzerland

35%

Draw

35%

Colombia

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

64·

Attack

·36

25·

Defence

·75

Their advice: Double chance : Switzerland or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Switzerland goals

0123456

Colombia goals

Most likely: 0-1 15%, 0-0 15%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 33%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

SwitzerlandColombia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win20%4.89

Draw32%3.10

Away win47%2.11

Double chance

Home or draw53%1.90

Home or away68%1.48

Draw or away80%1.26

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)30%3.31

Away (DNB)70%1.43

Total goals

Over 0.585%1.17

Under 0.515%6.76

Over 1.562%1.62

Under 1.538%2.61

Over 2.533%3.02

Under 2.567%1.49

Over 3.515%6.77

Under 3.585%1.17

Over 4.56%18.14

Under 4.594%1.06

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.18

Even54%1.85

Exact total goals

0 goals15%6.76

1 goals23%4.27

2 goals29%3.49

3 goals18%5.47

4 goals9%10.79

5 goals4%26.62

6+ goals2%56.95

Both teams to score

Yes39%2.54

No61%1.65

Team totals

Home over 0.552%1.92

Home over 1.517%5.91

Home over 2.54%25.69

Away over 0.572%1.38

Away over 1.537%2.71

Away over 2.514%7.12

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet28%3.63

Away clean sheet48%2.09

Win to nil

Home win to nil13%7.84

Away win to nil33%3.03

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%74.54

Home -1.56%16.10

Home -0.520%5.07

Home +0.552%1.92

Home +1.577%1.30

Home +2.592%1.09

Correct score (top 8)

0-115%6.51

0-015%6.76

1-114%7.06

0-211%9.14

1-08%12.36

1-28%12.38

0-35%21.27

2-15%21.63

Half-time result

Home17%5.78

Draw48%2.07

Away34%2.91

Half-time goals

Over 0.560%1.67

Under 0.540%2.49

Over 1.523%4.31

Under 1.577%1.30

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home11%8.77

Home/Draw4%24.13

Home/Away2%56.87

Draw/Home9%11.06

Draw/Draw21%4.82

Draw/Away19%5.40

Away/Home1%110.58

Away/Draw4%24.13

Away/Away29%3.41

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.568%1.46

Under 8.532%3.16

Over 9.556%1.78

Under 9.544%2.28

Over 10.544%2.29

Under 10.556%1.77

Over 11.532%3.12

Under 11.568%1.47

Over 12.522%4.49

Under 12.578%1.29

Expected total: 10.2

CH corners

Indicative

Over 3.582%1.21

Under 3.518%5.71

Over 4.568%1.47

Under 4.532%3.12

Over 5.551%1.95

Under 5.549%2.05

Over 6.535%2.83

Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

CO corners

Indicative

Over 3.564%1.56

Under 3.536%2.79

Over 4.545%2.22

Under 4.555%1.82

Over 5.528%3.56

Under 5.572%1.39

Over 6.516%6.37

Under 6.584%1.19

Expected total: 4.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.577%1.30

Under 2.523%4.38

Over 3.558%1.72

Under 3.542%2.38

Over 4.538%2.60

Under 4.562%1.63

Over 5.523%4.43

Under 5.577%1.29

Expected total: 4.1

CH anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

H. Seferović (?)7%14.06

K. Mbabu (?)7%14.06

M. Gavranović (?)7%14.06

S. Lichtsteiner (?)7%14.06

Y. Sommer (?)7%14.06

T. Klose (?)7%14.06

M. Lang (?)7%14.06

R. Freuler (Midfielder)7%14.06

Expected total: 0.6

CO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Rodríguez (Attacker)32%3.12

J. Córdoba (Attacker)32%3.12

J. Murillo (?)12%8.27

I. Poveda (?)12%8.27

J. Cuadrado (?)12%8.27

A. Morelos (?)12%8.27

I. Arboleda (?)12%8.27

L. Orejuela (?)12%8.27

Expected total: 1.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.74, away 1.29). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.