Spain vs Belgium

Group null · Matchday 6

· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Group standings →Bracket →ES 100% · BE 100% to advance

Spain

55%

FT

2–1

Belgium

16%

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Goals (3)

30'

F. Ruiz

Spain
41'

C. De Ketelaere

Belgium
88'

M. Merino

Spain

Cards (4)

43'

P. Cubarsi

Spain
85'

K. De Bruyne

Belgium
93'

A. Laporte

Spain
95'

A. Witsel

Belgium

Substitutions (9)

55'

↑ F. Torres for A. Baena

Spain
55'

↑ Pedri for F. Ruiz

Spain
60'

↑ A. Witsel for L. Trossard

Belgium
60'

↑ R. Lukaku for H. Vanaken

Belgium
61'

↑ J. Seys for M. De Cuyper

Belgium
71'

↑ S. Lammens for T. Courtois

Belgium
79'

↑ N. Williams for M. Oyarzabal

Spain
86'

↑ A. Saelemaekers for K. De Bruyne

Belgium
86'

↑ M. Merino for D. Olmo

Spain

Match stats

68%Possession32%
16Shots5
7Shots on target2
2.04Expected goals0.38
5Corners1
13Fouls16
3Offsides1
1Saves5
90%Pass accuracy79%

Top performer

FR

F. Ruiz

Spain · 1 goal

Lineups

Spain4-2-3-1

Belgium4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 6

1.75
Goals / match
2.33
0.12
Conceded / match
1.17
12%
BTTS rate
83%
88%
Clean sheet rate
17%
2.70
xG / match (club)
2.41
6.3
Corners / match
7.3
1.8
Yellows / match
1.5
68%
Possession
60%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Spain wins

1

Draws

0

Belgium wins

Last: Spain 0-0 Belgium (2026-07-10)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Spain

No known absences.

Belgium

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Spain are slight favourites at 55%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (62%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 41%.

Most likely score 1-0 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
-2.7%/+0.5%
Head-to-head
+1.2%/-1.2%
Set pieces
-1.1%/+0.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Spain

45%

Draw

45%

Belgium

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

54·
Form
·46
41·
Attack
·59
100·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Double chance : Spain or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Spain goals
12
6
15
13
4
13
9
6
4
0123456

Belgium goals

Most likely: 1-0 15%, 1-1 13%, 2-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 38%

12
0
21
1
28
2
20
3
11
4
5
5
2
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
SpainBelgium

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win55%1.83
Draw29%3.47
Away win16%6.07

Double chance

Home or draw84%1.20
Home or away71%1.41
Draw or away45%2.21

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)77%1.30
Away (DNB)23%4.32

Total goals

Over 0.588%1.14
Under 0.512%8.10
Over 1.567%1.50
Under 1.533%2.99
Over 2.538%2.61
Under 2.562%1.62
Over 3.519%5.41
Under 3.582%1.23
Over 4.57%13.35
Under 4.593%1.08

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.15
Even54%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals12%8.10
1 goals21%4.74
2 goals28%3.54
3 goals20%5.05
4 goals11%9.08
5 goals5%20.44
6+ goals3%38.50

Both teams to score

Yes41%2.45
No59%1.69

Team totals

Home over 0.578%1.28
Home over 1.545%2.22
Home over 2.520%5.08
Away over 0.550%1.99
Away over 1.516%6.43
Away over 2.53%29.39

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet50%2.01
Away clean sheet22%4.59

Win to nil

Home win to nil37%2.68
Away win to nil9%10.56

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.512%8.05
Home -1.530%3.32
Home -0.556%1.80
Home +0.584%1.18
Home +1.595%1.05
Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

1-015%6.66
1-113%7.67
2-013%7.95
0-012%8.10
2-19%11.38
3-06%15.67
0-16%16.46
3-14%22.42

Half-time result

Home40%2.51
Draw45%2.21
Away15%6.65

Half-time goals

Over 0.563%1.58
Under 0.537%2.72
Over 1.526%3.78
Under 1.574%1.36

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home35%2.85
Home/Draw4%25.35
Home/Away1%124.46
Draw/Home20%5.00
Draw/Draw18%5.57
Draw/Away7%13.84
Away/Home2%48.61
Away/Draw4%25.35
Away/Away9%11.07

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.591%1.10
Under 8.59%10.92
Over 9.585%1.18
Under 9.515%6.49
Over 10.576%1.31
Under 10.524%4.23
Over 11.567%1.50
Under 11.533%2.99
Over 12.556%1.80
Under 12.544%2.26

Expected total: 13.2

ES corners

Indicative
Over 3.589%1.12
Under 3.511%9.36
Over 4.578%1.27
Under 4.522%4.64
Over 5.564%1.56
Under 5.536%2.79
Over 6.549%2.06
Under 6.551%1.94

Expected total: 6.6

BE corners

Indicative
Over 3.590%1.12
Under 3.510%9.57
Over 4.579%1.27
Under 4.521%4.72
Over 5.565%1.55
Under 5.535%2.83
Over 6.549%2.04
Under 6.551%1.96

Expected total: 6.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.556%1.80
Under 2.544%2.26
Over 3.533%3.00
Under 3.567%1.50
Over 4.517%5.87
Under 4.583%1.21
Over 5.58%13.26
Under 5.592%1.08

Expected total: 2.9

ES anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Paco Alcácer (?)14%7.08
Jordi Alba (?)14%7.08
Sergi Roberto (?)14%7.08
Sergio Busquets (?)14%7.08
Raúl Albiol (?)14%7.08
Dani Carvajal (?)14%7.08
Nacho (?)14%7.08
Dani Ceballos (?)14%7.08

Expected total: 1.2

BE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Witsel (Midfielder)7%14.81
C. Ngonge (?)7%14.81
N. Chadli (?)7%14.81
Thomas Vermaelen (?)7%14.81
T. Alderweireld (?)7%14.81
J. Vertonghen (?)7%14.81
S. Mignolet (?)7%14.81
D. Mertens (?)7%14.81

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.52, away 0.70). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.