Norway vs England

Group null · Matchday 6

· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Group standings →Bracket →NO 100% · GB-ENG 100% to advance

Norway

24%

FT

1–2

England

53%

Share card

Goals (3)

36'

A. Schjelderup

assist: M. Odegaard

Norway
47'

J. Bellingham

assist: A. Gordon

England
93'

J. Bellingham

England

Cards (1)

117'

K. Ajer

Norway

Substitutions (12)

46'

↑ B. Saka for N. Madueke

England
46'

↑ E. Eze for D. Rice

England
60'

↑ F. Aursnes for J. Ryerson

Norway
68'

↑ O. Bobb for A. Sorloth

Norway
68'

↑ A. Nusa for A. Schjelderup

Norway
71'

↑ R. James for A. Gordon

England
86'

↑ D. Spence for N. O'Reilly

England
89'

↑ M. Rogers for E. Konsa

England
90'

↑ M. Pedersen for D. Wolfe

Norway
91'

↑ L. Ostigard for T. Heggem

Norway
106'

↑ J. Larsen for E. Haaland

Norway
111'

↑ D. Burn for J. Bellingham

England

Match stats

47%Possession53%
13Shots14
4Shots on target8
0.77Expected goals1.09
7Corners4
10Fouls8
1Offsides5
6Saves3
86%Pass accuracy91%

Top performer

JB

J. Bellingham

England · 2 goals

Lineups

Norway4-3-3

England4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 8

2.17
Goals / match
2.50
1.83
Conceded / match
1.50
100%
BTTS rate
75%
0%
Clean sheet rate
25%
3.63
xG / match (club)
1.51
6.3
Corners / match
5.8
1.2
Yellows / match
1.4
58%
Possession
65%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Norway wins

1

Draws

0

England wins

Last: Norway 0-0 England (2026-07-11)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Norway

No known absences.

England

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: England are slight favourites at 53%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 73% of the time.

  • Both score: Both teams to score is likely (70%).

Most likely score 1-2 (9%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
+1.9%/-2.2%
Set pieces
+0.1%/+1.4%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Norway

10%

Draw

45%

England

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

48·
Form
·52
52·
Attack
·48
36·
Defence
·64

Their advice: Combo Winner : England and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Norway goals
4
6
5
9
9
7
6
7
5
0123456

England goals

Most likely: 1-2 9%, 1-1 9%, 1-3 7%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 72%

3
0
7
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
15
5
17
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
NorwayEngland

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win24%4.16
Draw23%4.36
Away win53%1.89

Double chance

Home or draw47%2.13
Home or away77%1.30
Draw or away76%1.32

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)31%3.20
Away (DNB)69%1.45

Total goals

Over 0.597%1.03
Under 0.53%30.00
Over 1.590%1.11
Under 1.510%9.99
Over 2.573%1.38
Under 2.527%3.64
Over 3.552%1.92
Under 3.548%2.08
Over 4.533%3.07
Under 4.567%1.48

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.09
Even52%1.92

Exact total goals

0 goals3%30.00
1 goals7%14.97
2 goals17%5.74
3 goals21%4.85
4 goals19%5.16
5 goals15%6.84
6+ goals18%5.57

Both teams to score

Yes70%1.42
No30%3.39

Team totals

Home over 0.577%1.29
Home over 1.544%2.29
Home over 2.519%5.34
Away over 0.590%1.11
Away over 1.566%1.50
Away over 2.540%2.51

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet10%9.79
Away clean sheet23%4.41

Win to nil

Home win to nil7%14.52
Away win to nil19%5.18

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.54%25.17
Home -1.511%9.14
Home -0.524%4.24
Home +0.546%2.20
Home +1.565%1.53
Home +2.582%1.22

Correct score (top 8)

1-29%11.18
1-19%11.29
1-37%14.71
2-27%15.06
0-26%16.61
2-16%17.18
2-35%19.81
0-35%21.84

Half-time result

Home23%4.27
Draw33%3.00
Away43%2.31

Half-time goals

Over 0.582%1.22
Under 0.518%5.45
Over 1.551%1.98
Under 1.549%2.02

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home14%6.99
Home/Draw5%19.67
Home/Away4%25.01
Draw/Home8%12.42
Draw/Draw10%10.28
Draw/Away16%6.45
Away/Home2%44.90
Away/Draw5%19.67
Away/Away36%2.78

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.578%1.28
Under 8.522%4.54
Over 9.567%1.48
Under 9.533%3.07
Over 10.556%1.80
Under 10.544%2.25
Over 11.544%2.29
Under 11.556%1.78
Over 12.533%3.07
Under 12.567%1.48

Expected total: 11.1

NO corners

Indicative
Over 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.74
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.14
Over 5.551%1.94
Under 5.549%2.06
Over 6.535%2.82
Under 6.565%1.55

Expected total: 5.8

GB-ENG corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.28
Under 3.522%4.63
Over 4.562%1.61
Under 4.538%2.65
Over 5.545%2.22
Under 5.555%1.82
Over 6.529%3.39
Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Over 3.530%3.29
Under 3.570%1.44
Over 4.515%6.69
Under 4.585%1.18
Over 5.56%15.75
Under 5.594%1.07

Expected total: 2.8

NO anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Hansen (?)14%7.25
Tore Reginiussen (?)14%7.25
Håvard Nordtveit (?)14%7.25
S. Johansen (?)14%7.25
R. Jarstein (?)14%7.25
O. Omoijuanfo (?)14%7.25
S. Rossbach (?)14%7.25
T. Lehne Olsen (?)14%7.25

Expected total: 1.2

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)50%2.02
D. Rose (?)20%4.90
D. Alli (?)20%4.90

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.49, away 2.28). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.