France vs Spain

Group null · Matchday 7

· AT&T Stadium, Dallas

Group standings →Bracket →FR 100% · ES 100% to advance

France

23%

0–2

Spain

47%

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Goals (2)

22'

Mikel Oyarzabalpen

Spain

58'

Pedro Porro

Spain

Cards (3)

Adrien Rabiot

France

31'

Marc Cucurella

Spain

86'

Kylian Mbappé

France

Substitutions (10)

30'

↑ Maxence Lacroix for William Saliba

France

46'

↑ M. Kone for A. Rabiot

France

57'

↑ Désiré Doue for Bradley Barcola

France

72'

↑ R. Cherki for M. Olise

France

72'

↑ T. Hernandez for L. Digne

France

74'

↑ Ferrán Torres for Mikel Oyarzabal

Spain

78'

↑ Mikel Merino for Daniel Olmo Carvajal

Spain

78'

↑ Pedri for Fabián Ruiz

Spain

84'

↑ Marcos Llorente for Pedro Porro

Spain

84'

↑ Nico Williams for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez

Spain

Match stats

49%Possession51%

10Shots10

3Shots on target2

7Corners1

11Fouls12

4Offsides5

0Saves3

Top performer

Mikel Oyarzabal

Spain · 1 goal

Lineups

France4-2-3-1

Spain4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 8

2.50

Goals / match

1.75

1.25

Conceded / match

0.12

38%

BTTS rate

12%

50%

Clean sheet rate

88%

2.23

xG / match (club)

2.70

6.0

Corners / match

6.3

1.4

Yellows / match

1.8

58%

Possession

68%

France · last 5

Spain · last 5

Head to head · 5 meetings

France wins

Draws

Spain wins

Last: Spain 5-4 France (2025-06-05)avg 3.8 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

France

No known absences.

Spain

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Spain are slight favourites at 47%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (58%).

Most likely score 1-1 (14%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+2.0%/-2.0%

Set pieces

+1.0%/-1.4%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Club xG form

-1.1%/-1.9%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

France

10%

Draw

45%

Spain

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

54·

Attack

·46

50·

Defence

·50

Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Spain and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

France goals

0123456

Spain goals

Most likely: 1-1 14%, 0-1 12%, 0-0 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 41%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

FranceSpain

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win23%4.34

Draw30%3.32

Away win47%2.13

Double chance

Home or draw53%1.88

Home or away70%1.43

Draw or away77%1.30

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)33%3.03

Away (DNB)67%1.49

Total goals

Over 0.589%1.13

Under 0.511%8.92

Over 1.570%1.44

Under 1.530%3.29

Over 2.542%2.40

Under 2.558%1.71

Over 3.521%4.77

Under 3.579%1.27

Over 4.59%11.22

Under 4.591%1.10

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.16

Even54%1.86

Exact total goals

0 goals11%8.92

1 goals19%5.20

2 goals28%3.57

3 goals21%4.85

4 goals12%8.28

5 goals6%17.66

6+ goals3%30.81

Both teams to score

Yes47%2.12

No53%1.89

Team totals

Home over 0.560%1.67

Home over 1.523%4.31

Home over 2.57%15.38

Away over 0.576%1.31

Away over 1.542%2.39

Away over 2.517%5.74

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet24%4.19

Away clean sheet40%2.49

Win to nil

Home win to nil13%7.89

Away win to nil29%3.46

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%47.60

Home -1.58%12.27

Home -0.522%4.47

Home +0.553%1.90

Home +1.576%1.32

Home +2.591%1.10

Correct score (top 8)

1-114%7.06

0-112%8.27

0-011%8.92

0-210%10.18

1-29%11.15

1-07%14.04

2-16%17.48

0-35%21.32

Half-time result

Home20%5.01

Draw45%2.24

Away35%2.83

Half-time goals

Over 0.565%1.53

Under 0.535%2.87

Over 1.528%3.51

Under 1.572%1.40

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home13%7.58

Home/Draw5%21.74

Home/Away2%45.94

Draw/Home10%10.45

Draw/Draw18%5.66

Draw/Away17%5.74

Away/Home1%79.74

Away/Draw5%21.74

Away/Away30%3.39

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.587%1.15

Under 8.513%7.86

Over 9.580%1.26

Under 9.520%4.89

Over 10.570%1.43

Under 10.530%3.32

Over 11.559%1.70

Under 11.541%2.44

Over 12.548%2.10

Under 12.552%1.91

Expected total: 12.5

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

ES corners

Indicative

Over 3.589%1.12

Under 3.511%9.36

Over 4.578%1.27

Under 4.522%4.64

Over 5.564%1.56

Under 5.536%2.79

Over 6.549%2.06

Under 6.551%1.94

Expected total: 6.6

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.558%1.74

Under 2.542%2.36

Over 3.535%2.85

Under 3.565%1.54

Over 4.518%5.44

Under 4.582%1.23

Over 5.58%12.00

Under 5.592%1.09

Expected total: 3.0

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)9%11.45

M. Diaby (?)9%11.45

K. Coman (?)9%11.45

L. Dubois (?)9%11.45

H. Aouar (Midfielder)9%11.45

N. Fekir (?)9%11.45

K. Benzema (?)9%11.45

B. Matuidi (?)9%11.45

Expected total: 0.7

ES anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Paco Alcácer (?)13%7.50

Jordi Alba (?)13%7.50

Sergi Roberto (?)13%7.50

Sergio Busquets (?)13%7.50

Raúl Albiol (?)13%7.50

Dani Carvajal (?)13%7.50

Nacho (?)13%7.50

Dani Ceballos (?)13%7.50

Expected total: 1.1

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.91, away 1.43). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.