England vs Argentina

Group null · Matchday 7

· Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Group standings →Bracket →GB-ENG 100% · AR 100% to advance

England

27%

FT

1–2

Argentina

48%

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Goals (3)

55'

A. Gordon

assist: M. Rogers

England
85'

E. Fernandez

assist: L. Messi

Argentina
92'

L. Martinez

assist: L. Messi

Argentina

Cards (4)

37'

E. Anderson

England
42'

L. Martinez

Argentina
51'

C. Romero

Argentina
94'

R. de Paul

Argentina

Substitutions (10)

64'

↑ N. Gonzalez for L. Paredes

Argentina
72'

↑ E. Konsa for A. Gordon

England
72'

↑ R. de Paul for G. Simeone

Argentina
72'

↑ G. Montiel for N. Molina

Argentina
72'

↑ N. Otamendi for L. Martinez

Argentina
81'

↑ L. Martinez for N. Tagliafico

Argentina
82'

↑ D. Burn for R. James

England
82'

↑ N. O'Reilly for D. Rice

England
96'

↑ I. Toney for J. Stones

England
96'

↑ M. Rashford for D. Spence

England

Match stats

35%Possession65%
5Shots15
2Shots on target5
0.54Expected goals1.80
1Corners6
10Fouls15
1Offsides3
3Saves1
85%Pass accuracy91%

Top performer

AG

A. Gordon

England · 1 goal

Lineups

England4-2-3-1

Argentina4-4-2

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 8

2.50
Goals / match
2.38
1.50
Conceded / match
1.00
75%
BTTS rate
62%
25%
Clean sheet rate
25%
1.51
xG / match (club)
2.22
5.8
Corners / match
5.3
1.4
Yellows / match
1.4
65%
Possession
61%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

England wins

1

Draws

0

Argentina wins

Last: England 0-0 Argentina (2026-07-15)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

England

No known absences.

Argentina

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

  • Result: Argentina are slight favourites at 48%, but it is far from settled.

  • Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 63% of the time.

  • Both score: Both teams to score is likely (65%).

Most likely score 1-1 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
+2.0%/-2.0%
Set pieces
+2.1%/-0.4%
Club xG form
-0.7%/-2.6%
Head-to-head
+0.7%/-0.7%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

England

10%

Draw

45%

Argentina

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

46·
Form
·54
39·
Attack
·61
60·
Defence
·40

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Argentina

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

England goals
5
6
7
4
11
9
6
7
6
4
0123456

Argentina goals

Most likely: 1-1 11%, 1-2 9%, 0-2 7%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 63%

5
0
10
1
22
2
22
3
18
4
12
5
11
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
EnglandArgentina

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win27%3.74
Draw25%3.93
Away win48%2.09

Double chance

Home or draw52%1.92
Home or away75%1.34
Draw or away73%1.36

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)36%2.79
Away (DNB)64%1.56

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.05
Under 0.55%19.50
Over 1.585%1.18
Under 1.515%6.64
Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Over 3.541%2.43
Under 3.559%1.70
Over 4.523%4.35
Under 4.577%1.30

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11
Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals5%19.50
1 goals10%10.07
2 goals22%4.61
3 goals22%4.51
4 goals18%5.54
5 goals12%8.49
6+ goals11%8.90

Both teams to score

Yes65%1.55
No35%2.82

Team totals

Home over 0.574%1.34
Home over 1.540%2.53
Home over 2.516%6.35
Away over 0.585%1.18
Away over 1.557%1.77
Away over 2.530%3.38

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet15%6.67
Away clean sheet26%3.90

Win to nil

Home win to nil10%10.14
Away win to nil20%4.88

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.54%24.00
Home -1.512%8.35
Home -0.526%3.80
Home +0.551%1.95
Home +1.572%1.39
Home +2.587%1.15

Correct score (top 8)

1-111%8.92
1-29%10.62
0-27%14.46
2-17%14.80
2-26%15.59
0-16%16.68
1-36%16.78
0-05%19.50

Half-time result

Home24%4.08
Draw37%2.72
Away39%2.58

Half-time goals

Over 0.577%1.30
Under 0.523%4.34
Over 1.543%2.32
Under 1.557%1.76

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home16%6.26
Home/Draw5%19.22
Home/Away3%30.26
Draw/Home9%10.55
Draw/Draw12%8.37
Draw/Away15%6.50
Away/Home2%46.84
Away/Draw5%19.22
Away/Away31%3.19

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.572%1.39
Under 8.528%3.57
Over 9.560%1.66
Under 9.540%2.51
Over 10.548%2.09
Under 10.552%1.92
Over 11.536%2.77
Under 11.564%1.56
Over 12.526%3.88
Under 12.574%1.35

Expected total: 10.5

GB-ENG corners

Indicative
Over 3.578%1.28
Under 3.522%4.63
Over 4.562%1.61
Under 4.538%2.65
Over 5.545%2.22
Under 5.555%1.82
Over 6.529%3.39
Under 6.571%1.42

Expected total: 5.4

AR corners

Indicative
Over 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34

Expected total: 5.1

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.54
Over 3.538%2.61
Under 3.562%1.62
Over 4.521%4.80
Under 4.579%1.26
Over 5.510%10.16
Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.1

GB-ENG anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Toney (Attacker)34%2.98
D. Rose (?)13%7.86
D. Alli (?)13%7.86

Expected total: 0.7

AR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. González (Attacker)43%2.30
J. Foyth (?)17%5.78
S. Agüero (?)17%5.78
P. Dybala (?)17%5.78
E. Andrada (?)17%5.78
P. Gómez (?)17%5.78
N. Valentini (?)17%5.78
T. Geralnik (?)17%5.78

Expected total: 1.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.36, away 1.90). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.