Sweden vs Tunisia

Group F · Matchday 1

· Estadio BBVA, Monterrey

Group F standings →Bracket →SE 100% · TN 0% to advance

Sweden

61%

5–1

HT 2–1

Tunisia

15%

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Goals (6)

Y. Ayari

Sweden

30'

A. Isak

assist: V. Gyokeres

Sweden

43'

O. Rekik

assist: H. Mejbri

Tunisia

59'

V. Gyokeres

assist: A. Isak

Sweden

84'

M. Svanberg

assist: A. Isak

Sweden

90'

Y. Ayari

assist: L. Bergvall

Sweden

Cards (1)

54'

Rani Khedira

Tunisia

Substitutions (10)

65'

↑ E. Stroud for G. Gudmundsson

Sweden

65'

↑ L. Bergvall for B. Nygren

Sweden

72'

↑ S. Tounekti for E. Saad

Tunisia

72'

↑ E. Achouri for E. Skhiri

Tunisia

72'

↑ M. Belhadj for Y. Valery

Tunisia

83'

↑ I. Gharbi for R. Khedira

Tunisia

84'

↑ M. Svanberg for J. Karlstrom

Sweden

84'

↑ F. Chaouat for A. Slimane

Tunisia

91'

↑ D. Svensson for A. Bernhardsson

Sweden

90'

↑ A. Elanga for A. Isak

Sweden

Match stats

49%Possession51%

13Shots6

7Shots on target2

1.33Expected goals0.28

4Corners2

10Fouls8

3Offsides6

1Saves1

78%Pass accuracy79%

Top performer

Y. Ayari

Sweden · 2 goals

Lineups

Sweden3-1-4-2

Tunisia5-3-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group F opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

1.75

Goals / match

0.67

2.50

Conceded / match

4.00

75%

BTTS rate

67%

Clean sheet rate

1.02

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.0

Corners / match

4.9

1.7

Yellows / match

1.9

55%

Possession

48%

Sweden · last 4

Tunisia5-115 June LA

Netherlands5-120 June DA

Tunisia · last 3

Netherlands1-325 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Sweden wins

Draws

Tunisia wins

Last: Sweden 5-1 Tunisia (2026-06-15)avg 6.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Sweden

No known absences.

Tunisia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Sweden are strong favourites at 61%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 54%).

Most likely score 2-0 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

-3.0%/-1.0%

Set pieces

+0.8%/-0.8%

Club xG form

-2.0%/-2.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Sweden

33%

Draw

33%

Tunisia

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Sweden goals

0123456

Tunisia goals

Most likely: 2-0 11%, 1-1 11%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 54%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

SwedenTunisia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win61%1.63

Draw24%4.23

Away win15%6.63

Double chance

Home or draw85%1.18

Home or away76%1.31

Draw or away39%2.58

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)80%1.25

Away (DNB)20%5.06

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08

Under 0.57%14.12

Over 1.579%1.27

Under 1.521%4.76

Over 2.554%1.85

Under 2.546%2.18

Over 3.532%3.14

Under 3.568%1.47

Over 4.516%6.26

Under 4.584%1.19

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.12

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals7%14.12

1 goals14%7.18

2 goals25%4.03

3 goals22%4.48

4 goals16%6.29

5 goals9%11.05

6+ goals7%14.42

Both teams to score

Yes51%1.96

No49%2.04

Team totals

Home over 0.586%1.16

Home over 1.559%1.69

Home over 2.532%3.12

Away over 0.558%1.73

Away over 1.521%4.70

Away over 2.56%17.77

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet42%2.36

Away clean sheet14%7.31

Win to nil

Home win to nil35%2.83

Away win to nil7%15.15

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.520%5.11

Home -1.539%2.55

Home -0.562%1.60

Home +0.586%1.16

Home +1.595%1.05

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-011%8.72

1-111%8.94

1-010%9.76

2-110%10.15

3-08%13.16

0-07%14.12

3-17%15.32

1-24%23.51

Half-time result

Home46%2.15

Draw38%2.62

Away15%6.52

Half-time goals

Over 0.572%1.38

Under 0.528%3.60

Over 1.537%2.73

Under 1.563%1.58

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home41%2.42

Home/Draw4%24.53

Home/Away1%99.05

Draw/Home19%5.13

Draw/Draw13%7.89

Draw/Away6%16.48

Away/Home3%34.22

Away/Draw4%24.53

Away/Away8%11.99

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.573%1.36

Under 8.527%3.74

Over 9.562%1.62

Under 9.538%2.61

Over 10.549%2.02

Under 10.551%1.98

Over 11.538%2.66

Under 11.562%1.60

Over 12.527%3.69

Under 12.573%1.37

Expected total: 10.6

SE corners

Indicative

Over 3.582%1.22

Under 3.518%5.58

Over 4.567%1.48

Under 4.533%3.07

Over 5.551%1.98

Under 5.549%2.02

Over 6.535%2.88

Under 6.565%1.53

Expected total: 5.7

TN corners

Indicative

Over 3.572%1.38

Under 3.528%3.61

Over 4.554%1.84

Under 4.546%2.20

Over 5.537%2.71

Under 5.563%1.59

Over 6.523%4.43

Under 6.577%1.29

Expected total: 4.9

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.570%1.43

Under 2.530%3.34

Over 3.549%2.04

Under 3.551%1.96

Over 4.530%3.36

Under 4.570%1.42

Over 5.516%6.30

Under 5.584%1.19

Expected total: 3.6

SE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Kiese Thelin (?)18%5.54

M. Lustig (?)18%5.54

P. Bengtsson (?)18%5.54

O. Lewicki (?)18%5.54

K. Olsson (?)18%5.54

J. Johansson (?)18%5.54

L. Augustinsson (?)18%5.54

A. Tinnerholm (?)18%5.54

Expected total: 1.6

TN anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

H. Mastouri (Attacker)26%3.90

F. Chaouat (Attacker)23%4.40

E. Saad (Attacker)23%4.40

K. Ayari (Attacker)23%4.40

Y. Meriah (?)8%12.15

F. Ben Mustapha (?)8%12.15

M. Hassen (?)8%12.15

A. Balbouli (?)8%12.15

Expected total: 1.4

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.99, away 0.86). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.