All matches
Japan vs Sweden
Group F · Matchday 3
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Goals (2)
Cards (3)
32'
Sweden
Isak Hien
77'
Japan
Shogo Taniguchi
85'Sweden
Viktor Gyökeres
Substitutions (10)
37'Sweden
↑ Lucas Bergvall for Isak Hien
39'Japan
↑ Shogo Taniguchi for Ko Itakura
66'Japan
↑ Koki Ogawa for Ayase Ueda
67'Japan
↑ Junya Ito for Ritsu Doan
75'Japan
↑ Yuto Nagatomo for Keito Nakamura
75'Japan
↑ Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Ayumu Seko
75'Sweden
↑ K. Sema for E. Stroud
75'Sweden
↑ D. Svensson for A. Bernhardsson
87'Sweden
↑ Carl Starfelt for Victor Lindelöf
88'Sweden
↑ Benjamin Nygren for Gabriel Gudmundsson
Match stats
51%Possession49%
8Shots10
3Shots on target5
2Corners8
20Fouls11
3Offsides2
4Saves2
Top performer
DMDaizen Maeda
Japan · 1 goal
Lineups
Japan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
2.00
Goals / match
1.75
1.25
Conceded / match
2.50
75%
BTTS rate
75%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
1.02
4.9
Corners / match
6.0
1.0
Yellows / match
1.7
54%
Possession
55%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Japan wins
1
Draws
0
Sweden wins
Last: Japan 1-1 Sweden (2026-06-25)avg 2.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Japan
No known absences.
Sweden
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Japan are slight favourites at 51%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 53%).
Most likely score 1-1 (13%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+2.0%/-2.0%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Set pieces
-1.6%/+0.8%
Club xG form
-3.7%/-2.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeJapan
45%
Draw
45%
Sweden
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
57·
Form
·43
50·
Attack
·50
75·
Defence
·25
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Japan or draw and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Sweden
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Japan goals
7
5
9
13
6
9
10
5
5
6
0123456
Sweden goals
Most likely: 1-1 13%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 53%
70
141
252
223
164
95
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
JapanSweden
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win51%1.96
Draw27%3.76
Away win22%4.48
Double chance
Home or draw78%1.29
Home or away73%1.36
Draw or away49%2.04
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)70%1.44
Away (DNB)30%3.29
Total goals
Over 0.593%1.08
Under 0.57%13.39
Over 1.579%1.27
Under 1.521%4.66
Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.14
Over 3.531%3.22
Under 3.569%1.45
Over 4.515%6.49
Under 4.585%1.18
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals7%13.39
1 goals14%7.14
2 goals25%3.97
3 goals22%4.49
4 goals16%6.39
5 goals9%11.37
6+ goals7%15.14
Both teams to score
Yes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Team totals
Home over 0.583%1.21
Home over 1.552%1.92
Home over 2.526%3.92
Away over 0.565%1.53
Away over 1.529%3.47
Away over 2.59%10.82
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet35%2.90
Away clean sheet17%5.74
Win to nil
Home win to nil27%3.70
Away win to nil10%10.04
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.513%7.58
Home -1.530%3.38
Home -0.552%1.93
Home +0.578%1.28
Home +1.591%1.09
Home +2.598%1.03
Correct score (top 8)
1-113%7.92
2-110%10.24
2-09%10.90
1-09%11.04
0-07%13.39
1-26%16.81
3-16%17.58
3-05%18.71
Half-time result
Home40%2.53
Draw40%2.51
Away21%4.87
Half-time goals
Over 0.572%1.39
Under 0.528%3.54
Over 1.536%2.77
Under 1.564%1.56
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home33%3.01
Home/Draw5%20.83
Home/Away2%65.92
Draw/Home17%5.79
Draw/Draw14%7.15
Draw/Away9%11.58
Away/Home3%35.11
Away/Draw5%20.83
Away/Away13%7.77
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.574%1.36
Under 8.526%3.78
Over 9.562%1.61
Under 9.538%2.64
Over 10.550%2.01
Under 10.550%1.99
Over 11.538%2.64
Under 11.562%1.61
Over 12.527%3.65
Under 12.573%1.38
Expected total: 10.7
JP corners
IndicativeOver 3.573%1.37
Under 3.527%3.67
Over 4.555%1.82
Under 4.545%2.22
Over 5.537%2.67
Under 5.563%1.60
Over 6.523%4.35
Under 6.577%1.30
Expected total: 5.0
SE corners
IndicativeOver 3.582%1.22
Under 3.518%5.58
Over 4.567%1.48
Under 4.533%3.07
Over 5.551%1.98
Under 5.549%2.02
Over 6.535%2.88
Under 6.565%1.53
Expected total: 5.7
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Over 3.534%2.98
Under 3.566%1.50
Over 4.517%5.82
Under 4.583%1.21
Over 5.58%13.12
Under 5.592%1.08
Expected total: 2.9
JP anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Keito Nakamura (Midfielder)18%5.49
T. Nishimura (?)16%6.24
Kosuke Nakamura (?)16%6.24
D. Schmidt (?)16%6.24
K. Anzai (?)16%6.24
S. Hatanaka (?)16%6.24
G. Miura (?)16%6.24
S. Muroya (?)16%6.24
Expected total: 1.4
SE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
I. Kiese Thelin (?)10%9.91
M. Lustig (?)10%9.91
P. Bengtsson (?)10%9.91
O. Lewicki (?)10%9.91
K. Olsson (?)10%9.91
J. Johansson (?)10%9.91
L. Augustinsson (?)10%9.91
A. Tinnerholm (?)10%9.91
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.75, away 1.06). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.