All matches
Netherlands vs Japan
Group F · Matchday 1
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Goals (4)
Cards (3)
61'
Netherlands
Crysencio Summerville
83'Netherlands
Memphis Depay
91'Netherlands
Micky van de Ven
Substitutions (10)
66'
Japan
↑ J. Ito for D. Maeda
70'Netherlands
↑ M. Depay for D. Malen
70'Netherlands
↑ Q. Timber for T. Reijnders
70'Netherlands
↑ T. Koopmeiners for C. Summerville
75'Japan
↑ T. Tomiyasu for T. Watanabe
75'Japan
↑ Y. Sugawara for R. Doan
75'Japan
↑ K. Ogawa for T. Kubo
81'Netherlands
↑ N. Ake for R. Gravenberch
84'Japan
↑ K. Shiogai for A. Ueda
85'Netherlands
↑ B. Brobbey for C. Gakpo
Match stats
60%Possession40%
10Shots10
6Shots on target3
0.78Expected goals0.59
5Corners4
7Fouls7
1Offsides0
1Saves4
88%Pass accuracy84%
Top performer
VVV. van Dijk
Netherlands · 1 goal
Lineups
Netherlands4-3-3
Japan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group F opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 4
2.75
Goals / match
2.00
1.25
Conceded / match
1.25
100%
BTTS rate
75%
0%
Clean sheet rate
25%
2.08
xG / match (club)
0.00
7.4
Corners / match
4.9
1.3
Yellows / match
1.0
65%
Possession
54%
Netherlands · last 4
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
Netherlands wins
1
Draws
0
Japan wins
Last: Netherlands 2-2 Japan (2026-06-14)avg 2.5 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Netherlands
No known absences.
Japan
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Netherlands are slight favourites at 54%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 52%).
Most likely score 1-1 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Club xG form
+2.2%/-7.6%
Rest days
-2.0%/+2.0%
Set pieces
+1.8%/-1.9%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two-model consensusNetherlands
50%
Draw
50%
Japan
0%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: Double chance : Netherlands or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Netherlands
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Netherlands goals
8
5
10
12
5
10
10
5
6
6
0123456
Japan goals
Most likely: 1-1 12%, 2-0 10%, 1-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 52%
80
151
262
223
154
85
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
NetherlandsJapan
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win54%1.84
Draw26%3.82
Away win19%5.13
Double chance
Home or draw81%1.24
Home or away74%1.35
Draw or away46%2.19
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)74%1.36
Away (DNB)26%3.79
Total goals
Over 0.592%1.08
Under 0.58%12.77
Over 1.577%1.29
Under 1.523%4.43
Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.08
Over 3.530%3.37
Under 3.570%1.42
Over 4.514%6.92
Under 4.586%1.17
Odd / even goals
Odd47%2.13
Even53%1.88
Exact total goals
0 goals8%12.77
1 goals15%6.79
2 goals26%3.90
3 goals22%4.51
4 goals15%6.57
5 goals8%11.94
6+ goals6%16.46
Both teams to score
Yes53%1.89
No47%2.12
Team totals
Home over 0.583%1.20
Home over 1.553%1.88
Home over 2.527%3.76
Away over 0.562%1.62
Away over 1.525%4.00
Away over 2.57%13.62
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet38%2.62
Away clean sheet17%5.97
Win to nil
Home win to nil30%3.29
Away win to nil9%11.21
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.515%6.77
Home -1.532%3.10
Home -0.555%1.81
Home +0.581%1.23
Home +1.593%1.07
Home +2.598%1.02
Correct score (top 8)
1-112%8.04
2-010%9.79
1-010%9.99
2-110%10.17
0-08%12.77
3-06%16.43
3-16%17.08
1-25%18.90
Half-time result
Home42%2.41
Draw40%2.50
Away18%5.43
Half-time goals
Over 0.571%1.41
Under 0.529%3.45
Over 1.535%2.85
Under 1.565%1.54
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home36%2.80
Home/Draw5%22.02
Home/Away1%77.91
Draw/Home18%5.48
Draw/Draw14%7.12
Draw/Away8%12.91
Away/Home3%35.66
Away/Draw5%22.02
Away/Away11%9.04
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.574%1.35
Under 8.526%3.89
Over 9.563%1.59
Under 9.537%2.70
Over 10.551%1.97
Under 10.549%2.03
Over 11.539%2.57
Under 11.561%1.64
Over 12.528%3.55
Under 12.572%1.39
Expected total: 10.7
NL corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.83
Over 4.568%1.46
Under 4.532%3.17
Over 5.552%1.93
Under 5.548%2.08
Over 6.536%2.79
Under 6.564%1.56
Expected total: 5.8
JP corners
IndicativeOver 3.573%1.37
Under 3.527%3.67
Over 4.555%1.82
Under 4.545%2.22
Over 5.537%2.67
Under 5.563%1.60
Over 6.523%4.35
Under 6.577%1.30
Expected total: 5.0
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.91
Over 3.526%3.84
Under 3.574%1.35
Over 4.512%8.31
Under 4.588%1.14
Over 5.55%20.90
Under 5.595%1.05
Expected total: 2.6
NL anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Cillessen (?)16%6.11
L. Geertruida (Defender)5%19.16
Expected total: 0.2
JP anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Keito Nakamura (Midfielder)10%9.55
T. Nishimura (?)9%10.91
Kosuke Nakamura (?)9%10.91
D. Schmidt (?)9%10.91
K. Anzai (?)9%10.91
S. Hatanaka (?)9%10.91
G. Miura (?)9%10.91
S. Muroya (?)9%10.91
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.79, away 0.96). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.