All matches
Tunisia vs Japan
Group F · Matchday 2
· Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Substitutions (10)
46'
Tunisia
↑ M. Ben Hamida for D. Bronn
46'Tunisia
↑ I. Gharbi for E. Saad
65'Tunisia
↑ F. Chaouat for S. Tounekti
73'
Japan
↑ J. Suzuki for D. Kamada
74'Japan
↑ Y. Sugawara for R. Doan
79'Japan
↑ A. Seko for T. Tomiyasu
79'Japan
↑ Y. Suzuki for K. Nakamura
84'Japan
↑ K. Goto for A. Ueda
91'Tunisia
↑ E. Achouri for A. Abdi
91'Tunisia
↑ R. Khedira for E. Skhiri
Match stats
38%Possession62%
2Shots11
0Shots on target5
0.05Expected goals2.07
3Corners5
7Fouls15
1Offsides1
1Saves0
81%Pass accuracy89%
Top performer
AUA. Ueda
Japan · 2 goals
Lineups
Tunisia3-4-2-1
Japan3-4-2-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group F. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 4
0.67
Goals / match
2.00
4.00
Conceded / match
1.25
67%
BTTS rate
75%
0%
Clean sheet rate
25%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.9
Corners / match
4.9
1.9
Yellows / match
1.0
48%
Possession
54%
Tunisia · last 3
Head to head · 2 meetings
1
Tunisia wins
0
Draws
1
Japan wins
Last: Japan 2-0 Tunisia (2023-10-17)avg 2.5 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Tunisia
No known absences.
Japan
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Japan are strong favourites at 74%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 55%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.
Most likely score 0-2 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Head-to-head
-2.0%/+2.0%
Club xG form
-3.0%/-4.7%
Travel
-1.0%/0.0%
Set pieces
-0.3%/-1.1%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeTunisia
10%
Draw
45%
Japan
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·100
33·
Attack
·67
29·
Defence
·71
Their advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Japan and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Tunisia
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Tunisia goals
7
12
14
11
6
9
9
7
0123456
Japan goals
Most likely: 0-2 14%, 0-1 12%, 0-3 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 54%
70
141
242
223
164
95
66+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
TunisiaJapan
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win8%12.37
Draw18%5.47
Away win74%1.36
Double chance
Home or draw26%3.79
Home or away82%1.22
Draw or away92%1.09
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)10%10.11
Away (DNB)90%1.11
Total goals
Over 0.593%1.07
Under 0.57%15.32
Over 1.579%1.26
Under 1.521%4.87
Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Over 3.533%3.04
Under 3.567%1.49
Over 4.517%5.97
Under 4.583%1.20
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.09
Even52%1.92
Exact total goals
0 goals7%15.32
1 goals14%7.13
2 goals24%4.14
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals16%6.18
5 goals9%10.67
6+ goals7%13.57
Both teams to score
Yes42%2.39
No58%1.72
Team totals
Home over 0.545%2.20
Home over 1.512%8.09
Home over 2.52%42.35
Away over 0.590%1.11
Away over 1.567%1.50
Away over 2.540%2.49
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet10%9.87
Away clean sheet55%1.83
Win to nil
Home win to nil4%27.77
Away win to nil48%2.08
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.5<1%302.07
Home -1.52%52.65
Home -0.57%13.95
Home +0.525%3.93
Home +1.548%2.08
Home +2.571%1.42
Correct score (top 8)
0-214%6.90
0-112%8.57
0-311%9.03
1-29%11.40
1-19%11.55
1-37%14.93
0-07%15.32
0-46%15.78
Half-time result
Home10%10.31
Draw35%2.83
Away55%1.82
Half-time goals
Over 0.573%1.37
Under 0.527%3.68
Over 1.537%2.67
Under 1.563%1.60
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home4%23.62
Home/Draw3%34.77
Home/Away3%38.66
Draw/Home3%29.06
Draw/Draw11%9.49
Draw/Away21%4.68
Away/Home<1%204.91
Away/Draw3%34.77
Away/Away52%1.94
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.565%1.53
Under 8.535%2.87
Over 9.552%1.91
Under 9.548%2.10
Over 10.540%2.50
Under 10.560%1.67
Over 11.529%3.48
Under 11.571%1.40
Over 12.520%5.11
Under 12.580%1.24
Expected total: 9.9
TN corners
IndicativeOver 3.572%1.38
Under 3.528%3.61
Over 4.554%1.84
Under 4.546%2.20
Over 5.537%2.71
Under 5.563%1.59
Over 6.523%4.43
Under 6.577%1.29
Expected total: 4.9
JP corners
IndicativeOver 3.573%1.37
Under 3.527%3.67
Over 4.555%1.82
Under 4.545%2.22
Over 5.537%2.67
Under 5.563%1.60
Over 6.523%4.35
Under 6.577%1.30
Expected total: 5.0
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Over 3.535%2.86
Under 3.565%1.54
Over 4.518%5.48
Under 4.582%1.22
Over 5.58%12.11
Under 5.592%1.09
Expected total: 3.0
TN anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
H. Mastouri (Attacker)19%5.31
F. Chaouat (Attacker)17%6.02
E. Saad (Attacker)17%6.02
K. Ayari (Attacker)17%6.02
Y. Meriah (?)6%17.04
F. Ben Mustapha (?)6%17.04
M. Hassen (?)6%17.04
A. Balbouli (?)6%17.04
Expected total: 1.0
JP anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Keito Nakamura (Midfielder)23%4.32
T. Nishimura (?)20%4.89
Kosuke Nakamura (?)20%4.89
D. Schmidt (?)20%4.89
K. Anzai (?)20%4.89
S. Hatanaka (?)20%4.89
G. Miura (?)20%4.89
S. Muroya (?)20%4.89
Expected total: 1.9
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.60, away 2.29). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.