All matches
Iraq vs Norway
Group I · Matchday 1
· Gillette Stadium, Boston
Goals (5)
Cards (1)
86'
Iraq
Zaid Tahseen
Substitutions (10)
59'Iraq
↑ Z. Iqbal for Z. Ismaeel
59'Iraq
↑ M. Farji for A. Al Hamadi
73'Iraq
↑ A. Qasem for A. Jasim
73'Iraq
↑ M. Saadoon for H. Ali
73'
Norway
↑ O. Bobb for A. Sorloth
73'Norway
↑ L. Ostigard for D. Wolfe
73'Norway
↑ K. Thorstvedt for F. Aursnes
73'Norway
↑ A. Schjelderup for A. Nusa
78'Iraq
↑ Meme for I. Bayesh
81'Norway
↑ P. Berg for M. Odegaard
Match stats
39%Possession61%
11Shots12
1Shots on target5
0.80Expected goals2.52
2Corners5
12Fouls13
1Offsides0
2Saves0
81%Pass accuracy89%
Top performer
EHE. Haaland
Norway · 2 goals
Lineups
Iraq4-4-2
Norway4-4-2
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group I opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 6
0.33
Goals / match
2.17
4.00
Conceded / match
1.83
33%
BTTS rate
100%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
3.63
3.9
Corners / match
6.3
1.7
Yellows / match
1.2
43%
Possession
58%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Iraq wins
0
Draws
1
Norway wins
Last: Iraq 1-4 Norway (2026-06-16)avg 5.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Iraq
No known absences.
Norway
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Norway are strong favourites at 80%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 60% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 39%.
Most likely score 0-2 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-5.9%/+5.8%
Set pieces
-1.7%/+1.6%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeIraq
33%
Draw
33%
Norway
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Norway
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Iraq goals
5
11
15
13
8
4
7
8
7
4
0123456
Norway goals
Most likely: 0-2 15%, 0-3 13%, 0-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 58%
50
121
222
223
174
115
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
IraqNorway
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win6%18.08
Draw15%6.85
Away win80%1.25
Double chance
Home or draw20%4.97
Home or away85%1.17
Draw or away94%1.06
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)6%15.44
Away (DNB)94%1.07
Total goals
Over 0.595%1.06
Under 0.55%19.03
Over 1.582%1.21
Under 1.518%5.70
Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Over 3.538%2.65
Under 3.562%1.61
Over 4.520%4.91
Under 4.580%1.26
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.07
Even52%1.93
Exact total goals
0 goals5%19.03
1 goals12%8.14
2 goals22%4.47
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals17%5.75
5 goals11%9.25
6+ goals10%10.49
Both teams to score
Yes39%2.57
No61%1.64
Team totals
Home over 0.541%2.43
Home over 1.510%10.03
Home over 2.52%59.36
Away over 0.592%1.08
Away over 1.573%1.37
Away over 2.548%2.10
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet8%13.18
Away clean sheet59%1.70
Win to nil
Home win to nil2%42.90
Away win to nil54%1.87
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.5<1%566.55
Home -1.51%87.24
Home -0.55%21.02
Home +0.519%5.17
Home +1.540%2.50
Home +2.563%1.59
Correct score (top 8)
0-215%6.74
0-313%7.84
0-111%9.34
0-48%12.16
1-28%12.70
1-17%14.49
1-37%14.77
0-05%19.03
Half-time result
Home8%13.18
Draw32%3.12
Away60%1.66
Half-time goals
Over 0.575%1.33
Under 0.525%4.05
Over 1.541%2.45
Under 1.559%1.69
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home3%35.21
Home/Draw2%43.82
Home/Away2%40.57
Draw/Home2%42.09
Draw/Draw8%11.85
Draw/Away21%4.72
Away/Home<1%297.94
Away/Draw2%43.82
Away/Away58%1.73
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.565%1.53
Under 8.535%2.89
Over 9.553%1.89
Under 9.547%2.12
Over 10.540%2.48
Under 10.560%1.67
Over 11.529%3.44
Under 11.571%1.41
Over 12.520%5.05
Under 12.580%1.25
Expected total: 9.9
IQ corners
IndicativeOver 3.559%1.69
Under 3.541%2.45
Over 4.540%2.52
Under 4.560%1.66
Over 5.524%4.24
Under 5.576%1.31
Over 6.512%8.02
Under 6.588%1.14
Expected total: 4.1
NO corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.74
Over 4.568%1.47
Under 4.532%3.14
Over 5.551%1.94
Under 5.549%2.06
Over 6.535%2.82
Under 6.565%1.55
Expected total: 5.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Over 3.537%2.67
Under 3.563%1.60
Over 4.520%4.96
Under 4.580%1.25
Over 5.59%10.61
Under 5.591%1.10
Expected total: 3.1
IQ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Aymen Hussein (Attacker)17%5.97
Mohanad Ali (Attacker)15%6.79
Ali Yousif Hashim (Attacker)15%6.79
A. Jasim (Attacker)15%6.79
Bashar Rasan (?)5%19.34
Humam Tariq (?)5%19.34
Masies Artien (?)5%19.34
Ahmad Ibrahim Khalaf (?)5%19.34
Expected total: 0.9
NO anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Hansen (?)23%4.40
Tore Reginiussen (?)23%4.40
Håvard Nordtveit (?)23%4.40
S. Johansen (?)23%4.40
R. Jarstein (?)23%4.40
O. Omoijuanfo (?)23%4.40
S. Rossbach (?)23%4.40
T. Lehne Olsen (?)23%4.40
Expected total: 2.1
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.53, away 2.58). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.