France vs Iraq

Group I · Matchday 2

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group I standings →Bracket →FR 100% · IQ 0% to advance

France

89%

3–0

Iraq

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Goals (3)

14'

K. Mbappe

France

54'

Kylian Mbappé

France

66'

Ousmane Dembélé

France

Cards (1)

A. Al Ammari

Iraq

Substitutions (10)

26'

↑ A. Al Hamadi for A. Hussein

Iraq

60'

↑ Rebin Sulaka for Zaid Tahseen

Iraq

60'

↑ Youssef Amyn for Zaid Ismael

Iraq

68'

↑ Aimar Sher for Amir Al-Ammari

Iraq

68'

↑ R. Cherki for M. Olise

France

68'

↑ D. Doue for O. Dembele

France

69'

↑ Marko Farji for Ibrahim Bayesh

Iraq

83'

↑ M. Gusto for J. Kounde

France

83'

↑ M. Akliouche for B. Barcola

France

91'

↑ M. Thuram for K. Mbappe

France

Match stats

55%Possession45%

19Shots4

5Shots on target0

4Corners2

8Fouls4

1Offsides0

0Saves2

Top performer

K. Mbappe

France · 1 goal

Lineups

France4-2-3-1

Iraq4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group I. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 3

2.50

Goals / match

0.33

1.25

Conceded / match

4.00

38%

BTTS rate

33%

50%

Clean sheet rate

2.23

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.0

Corners / match

3.9

1.4

Yellows / match

1.7

58%

Possession

43%

France · last 5

Iraq · last 3

Head to head · 1 meetings

France wins

Draws

Iraq wins

Last: France 0-0 Iraq (2026-06-22)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

France

No known absences.

Iraq

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: France are strong favourites at 89%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 64% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 25%.

Most likely score 2-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+2.3%/-5.8%

Set pieces

+2.0%/-1.4%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

France

50%

Draw

50%

Iraq

Their internal ratings (0-100)

100·

Form

·0

75·

Attack

·25

80·

Defence

·20

Their advice: Combo Winner : France and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

France

No per-90 data for this squad yet.

Iraq

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

France goals

0123456

Iraq goals

Most likely: 2-0 17%, 3-0 17%, 4-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 60%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

FranceIraq

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win89%1.12

Draw9%11.48

Away win2%53.87

Double chance

Home or draw98%1.02

Home or away91%1.10

Draw or away11%9.46

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)98%1.02

Away (DNB)2%49.17

Total goals

Over 0.596%1.04

Under 0.54%23.95

Over 1.584%1.19

Under 1.516%6.40

Over 2.564%1.57

Under 2.536%2.76

Over 3.542%2.40

Under 3.558%1.71

Over 4.523%4.27

Under 4.577%1.31

Odd / even goals

Odd49%2.04

Even51%1.96

Exact total goals

0 goals4%23.95

1 goals11%8.74

2 goals21%4.85

3 goals22%4.52

4 goals18%5.50

5 goals12%8.38

6+ goals12%8.69

Both teams to score

Yes25%4.05

No75%1.33

Team totals

Home over 0.595%1.05

Home over 1.580%1.25

Home over 2.557%1.74

Away over 0.526%3.91

Away over 1.54%27.91

Away over 2.5<1%291.11

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet74%1.34

Away clean sheet5%19.88

Win to nil

Home win to nil70%1.42

Away win to nil1%116.88

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.551%1.96

Home -1.573%1.36

Home -0.590%1.11

Home +0.599%1.01

Home +1.599%+1.00

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-017%5.97

3-017%5.99

4-012%8.02

1-011%9.29

5-07%13.41

2-15%20.25

3-15%20.32

0-04%23.95

Half-time result

Home69%1.44

Draw27%3.70

Away4%28.34

Half-time goals

Over 0.577%1.30

Under 0.523%4.39

Over 1.543%2.30

Under 1.557%1.77

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home68%1.47

Home/Draw1%93.46

Home/Away<1%1158.43

Draw/Home20%4.89

Draw/Draw6%17.51

Draw/Away1%112.50

Away/Home2%65.48

Away/Draw1%93.46

Away/Away1%107.37

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.567%1.49

Under 8.533%3.02

Over 9.554%1.84

Under 9.546%2.19

Over 10.542%2.39

Under 10.558%1.72

Over 11.531%3.28

Under 11.570%1.44

Over 12.521%4.76

Under 12.579%1.27

Expected total: 10.0

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

IQ corners

Indicative

Over 3.559%1.69

Under 3.541%2.45

Over 4.540%2.52

Under 4.560%1.66

Over 5.524%4.24

Under 5.576%1.31

Over 6.512%8.02

Under 6.588%1.14

Expected total: 4.1

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.559%1.69

Under 2.541%2.46

Over 3.537%2.71

Under 3.563%1.59

Over 4.520%5.06

Under 4.580%1.25

Over 5.59%10.91

Under 5.591%1.10

Expected total: 3.1

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)26%3.87

M. Diaby (?)26%3.87

K. Coman (?)26%3.87

L. Dubois (?)26%3.87

H. Aouar (Midfielder)26%3.87

N. Fekir (?)26%3.87

K. Benzema (?)26%3.87

B. Matuidi (?)26%3.87

Expected total: 2.4

IQ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

Aymen Hussein (Attacker)10%10.33

Mohanad Ali (Attacker)8%11.81

Ali Yousif Hashim (Attacker)8%11.81

A. Jasim (Attacker)8%11.81

Bashar Rasan (?)3%34.36

Humam Tariq (?)3%34.36

Masies Artien (?)3%34.36

Ahmad Ibrahim Khalaf (?)3%34.36

Expected total: 0.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.99, away 0.29). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.