Uruguay vs Cape Verde
Group H · Matchday 2
· Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Goals (4)
Cards (4)
S. Lopes Cabral
R. Bentancur
M. Olivera
D. Borges
Substitutions (8)
↑ D. Duarte for T. Arcanjo
↑ H. Varela for G. Rodrigues
↑ N. Da Costa for Benchimol
↑ D. Nunez for F. Vinas
↑ N. de la Cruz for M. Ugarte
↑ L. Duarte for K. Lenini
↑ Y. Semedo for J. Monteiro
↑ B. Rodriguez for M. Araujo
Match stats
Top performer
MAM. Araujo
Uruguay · 1 goal
Lineups
Uruguay4-2-3-1
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group H. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 4
Uruguay · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Uruguay wins
0
Draws
1
Cape Verde wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Uruguay
No known absences.
Cape Verde
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
Medium confidenceResult: Uruguay are slight favourites at 59%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (58%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 42%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeUruguay
35%
Draw
35%
Cape Verde
30%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Double chance : Uruguay or draw and -2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
Uruguay
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Cape Verde goals
Most likely: 1-0 14%, 2-0 13%, 1-1 12%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 42%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 9.1
UY corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.3
CV corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=13)
Expected total: 3.1
UY anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 1.3
CV anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 0.8
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.67, away 0.69). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.