New Zealand vs Egypt
Group G · Matchday 2
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (4)
Cards (3)
M. Lasheen
S. Singh
C. McCowatt
Substitutions (11)
↑ R. Rabia for H. Fathy
↑ Ben Old for Callum McCowatt
↑ R. Thomas for S. Singh
↑ J. Randall for L. Cacace
↑ Hamza Abdelkarim for Mostafa Ziko
↑ Mahmoud Trézéguet for Omar Marmoush
↑ H. Abdelmaguid for M. Salah
↑ Zizo for E. Ashour
↑ Francis De Vries for Elijah Just
↑ Tyler Bindon for Tim Payne
↑ Mohamed Abdelmonem for Hossam Abdelmaguid
Match stats
Top performer
FSF. Surman
New Zealand · 1 goal
Lineups
New Zealand4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group G. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 5
New Zealand · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
New Zealand wins
0
Draws
1
Egypt wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
New Zealand
No known absences.
Egypt
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Egypt are strong favourites at 68%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 59% of the time.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeNew Zealand
10%
Draw
45%
Egypt
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Egypt
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
New Zealand
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Egypt goals
Most likely: 0-2 12%, 1-2 10%, 1-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 58%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 9.6
NZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Expected total: 4.8
EG corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=8)
Expected total: 3.4
NZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 1.2
EG anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=4)
Expected total: 3.0
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.81, away 2.27). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.