Team
New Zealand vs Egypt
Group G · Matchday 2
· BC Place, Vancouver
Goals (4)
Cards (3)
17'
Egypt
M. Lasheen
20'
New Zealand
S. Singh
34'New Zealand
C. McCowatt
Substitutions (11)
41'Egypt
↑ R. Rabia for H. Fathy
66'New Zealand
↑ Ben Old for Callum McCowatt
76'New Zealand
↑ R. Thomas for S. Singh
76'New Zealand
↑ J. Randall for L. Cacace
76'Egypt
↑ Hamza Abdelkarim for Mostafa Ziko
76'Egypt
↑ Mahmoud Trézéguet for Omar Marmoush
85'Egypt
↑ H. Abdelmaguid for M. Salah
85'Egypt
↑ Zizo for E. Ashour
85'New Zealand
↑ Francis De Vries for Elijah Just
85'New Zealand
↑ Tyler Bindon for Tim Payne
90'Egypt
↑ Mohamed Abdelmonem for Hossam Abdelmaguid
Match stats
44%Possession56%
11Shots19
5Shots on target7
4Corners3
14Fouls8
3Offsides0
4Saves4
Top performer
FSF. Surman
New Zealand · 1 goal
Lineups
New Zealand4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group G. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 5
1.33
Goals / match
1.60
3.33
Conceded / match
1.40
100%
BTTS rate
100%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.7
Corners / match
4.8
1.4
Yellows / match
1.9
51%
Possession
52%
New Zealand · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
New Zealand wins
0
Draws
1
Egypt wins
Last: Egypt 1-0 New Zealand (2024-03-22)avg 1.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
New Zealand
No known absences.
Egypt
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Egypt are strong favourites at 68%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 59% of the time.
Most likely score 0-2 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-4.0%
Set pieces
-0.5%/+0.6%
Club xG form
-3.2%/-2.2%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeNew Zealand
10%
Draw
45%
Egypt
45%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
67·
Attack
·33
33·
Defence
·67
Their advice: Double chance : draw or Egypt
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Key players to watch
New Zealand
No per-90 data for this squad yet.
Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
New Zealand goals
6
9
12
9
5
10
10
7
4
0123456
Egypt goals
Most likely: 0-2 12%, 1-2 10%, 1-1 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 58%
60
121
232
223
174
115
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
New ZealandEgypt
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win12%8.47
Draw20%4.98
Away win68%1.47
Double chance
Home or draw32%3.14
Home or away80%1.25
Draw or away88%1.13
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)15%6.77
Away (DNB)85%1.17
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%17.51
Over 1.582%1.21
Under 1.518%5.65
Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46
Over 3.537%2.70
Under 3.563%1.59
Over 4.520%5.06
Under 4.580%1.25
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.10
Even52%1.91
Exact total goals
0 goals6%17.51
1 goals12%8.35
2 goals23%4.36
3 goals22%4.47
4 goals17%5.81
5 goals11%9.44
6+ goals9%10.89
Both teams to score
Yes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Team totals
Home over 0.556%1.80
Home over 1.520%5.11
Home over 2.55%20.34
Away over 0.590%1.12
Away over 1.566%1.51
Away over 2.539%2.53
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet10%9.63
Away clean sheet44%2.25
Win to nil
Home win to nil5%21.41
Away win to nil39%2.58
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.51%128.30
Home -1.53%28.79
Home -0.511%9.27
Home +0.531%3.24
Home +1.553%1.88
Home +2.574%1.35
Correct score (top 8)
0-212%8.46
1-210%10.41
1-110%10.44
0-19%10.71
0-39%11.20
1-37%13.79
0-06%17.51
0-45%19.78
Half-time result
Home13%7.64
Draw35%2.84
Away52%1.94
Half-time goals
Over 0.575%1.33
Under 0.525%3.99
Over 1.540%2.48
Under 1.560%1.67
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home6%15.69
Home/Draw4%27.62
Home/Away3%32.22
Draw/Home5%21.35
Draw/Draw11%9.40
Draw/Away20%5.01
Away/Home1%119.95
Away/Draw4%27.62
Away/Away47%2.12
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 8.562%1.61
Under 8.538%2.65
Over 9.549%2.03
Under 9.551%1.98
Over 10.537%2.71
Under 10.563%1.59
Over 11.526%3.83
Under 11.574%1.35
Over 12.517%5.75
Under 12.583%1.21
Expected total: 9.6
NZ corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
EG corners
IndicativeOver 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.41
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.76
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=8)
Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Over 3.543%2.31
Under 3.557%1.76
Over 4.525%4.02
Under 4.575%1.33
Over 5.512%8.02
Under 5.588%1.14
Expected total: 3.4
NZ anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
K. Barbarouses (Attacker)22%4.63
B. Waine (Attacker)22%4.63
J. Randall (Attacker)22%4.63
E. Just (Midfielder)11%9.00
S. Singh (Midfielder)8%12.82
D. Ingham (?)8%12.82
N. Tzanev (?)8%12.82
D. Wynne (?)8%12.82
Expected total: 1.2
EG anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=4)
Trézéguet (Attacker)54%1.84
Zizo (Attacker)49%2.03
Emam Ashour (Midfielder)26%3.92
Mostafa Zico (Midfielder)26%3.92
Mahmoud Saber (Midfielder)23%4.36
Koka (?)20%4.93
Mahmoud Gennesh (?)20%4.93
Mohamed Abou Gabal (?)20%4.93
Expected total: 3.0
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.81, away 2.27). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.