All matches
Argentina vs Austria
Group J · Matchday 2
· AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Missed penalties (1)
Cards (4)
40'
Austria
S. Posch
76'
Argentina
F. Medina
76'Austria
K. Laimer
92'Argentina
L. Paredes
Substitutions (10)
57'Argentina
↑ N. Otamendi for C. Romero
64'Argentina
↑ J. Alvarez for T. Almada
65'Argentina
↑ N. Gonzalez for L. Martinez
67'Austria
↑ M. Friedl for D. Alaba
68'Austria
↑ M. Arnautovic for P. Wanner
68'Austria
↑ A. Prass for S. Posch
78'Austria
↑ P. Wimmer for R. Schmid
82'Argentina
↑ L. Paredes for R. de Paul
82'Argentina
↑ N. Tagliafico for F. Medina
85'Austria
↑ C. Chukwuemeka for M. Gregoritsch
Match stats
54%Possession46%
8Shots6
2Shots on target1
1.58Expected goals0.41
1Corners3
13Fouls12
2Offsides0
1Saves1
90%Pass accuracy86%
Top performer
LML. Messi
Argentina · 2 goals
Lineups
Argentina4-4-2
What's at stake
Matchday 2, Group J. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.
Season form comparison
sample home 8 · away 4
2.38
Goals / match
1.50
1.00
Conceded / match
2.25
62%
BTTS rate
50%
25%
Clean sheet rate
0%
2.22
xG / match (club)
2.27
5.3
Corners / match
4.9
1.4
Yellows / match
1.7
61%
Possession
59%
Argentina · last 5
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Argentina wins
1
Draws
0
Austria wins
Last: Argentina 0-0 Austria (2026-06-22)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Argentina
No known absences.
Austria
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Argentina are strong favourites at 70%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 58% of the time.
Most likely score 2-0 (13%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeArgentina
45%
Draw
45%
Austria
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
50·
Form
·50
50·
Attack
·50
100·
Defence
·0
Their advice: Double chance : Argentina or draw
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Argentina goals
6
10
9
13
9
10
7
5
4
0123456
Austria goals
Most likely: 2-0 13%, 1-0 10%, 3-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 58%
60
121
232
223
174
105
86+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
ArgentinaAustria
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win70%1.43
Draw19%5.15
Away win10%9.54
Double chance
Home or draw90%1.12
Home or away81%1.24
Draw or away30%3.35
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)87%1.15
Away (DNB)13%7.69
Total goals
Over 0.594%1.06
Under 0.56%17.03
Over 1.582%1.22
Under 1.518%5.46
Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.41
Over 3.536%2.77
Under 3.564%1.56
Over 4.519%5.24
Under 4.581%1.24
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.09
Even52%1.91
Exact total goals
0 goals6%17.03
1 goals12%8.03
2 goals23%4.31
3 goals22%4.46
4 goals17%5.88
5 goals10%9.69
6+ goals9%11.42
Both teams to score
Yes48%2.07
No52%1.94
Team totals
Home over 0.590%1.11
Home over 1.567%1.50
Home over 2.540%2.49
Away over 0.553%1.90
Away over 1.517%5.80
Away over 2.54%24.93
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet47%2.11
Away clean sheet10%9.86
Win to nil
Home win to nil42%2.41
Away win to nil4%23.44
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.527%3.67
Home -1.549%2.05
Home -0.571%1.41
Home +0.591%1.10
Home +1.597%1.03
Home +2.599%1.01
Correct score (top 8)
2-013%7.95
1-010%10.07
3-010%10.42
2-19%10.64
1-19%10.78
3-17%13.94
0-06%17.03
4-05%18.20
Half-time result
Home53%1.89
Draw35%2.85
Away12%8.37
Half-time goals
Over 0.574%1.34
Under 0.526%3.92
Over 1.540%2.52
Under 1.560%1.66
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home49%2.05
Home/Draw3%29.57
Home/Away1%140.21
Draw/Home20%4.91
Draw/Draw11%9.52
Draw/Away4%23.58
Away/Home3%33.66
Away/Draw3%29.57
Away/Away6%17.85
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.570%1.44
Under 8.530%3.29
Over 9.557%1.74
Under 9.543%2.35
Over 10.545%2.22
Under 10.555%1.82
Over 11.533%3.00
Under 11.567%1.50
Over 12.523%4.27
Under 12.577%1.31
Expected total: 10.3
AR corners
IndicativeOver 3.575%1.33
Under 3.525%4.02
Over 4.558%1.72
Under 4.542%2.38
Over 5.540%2.47
Under 5.560%1.68
Over 6.526%3.92
Under 6.574%1.34
Expected total: 5.1
AT corners
IndicativeOver 3.576%1.32
Under 3.524%4.08
Over 4.559%1.71
Under 4.541%2.41
Over 5.541%2.44
Under 5.559%1.69
Over 6.526%3.85
Under 6.574%1.35
Expected total: 5.2
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.20
Over 3.547%2.11
Under 3.553%1.90
Over 4.528%3.53
Under 4.572%1.40
Over 5.515%6.73
Under 5.585%1.17
Expected total: 3.5
AR anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
N. González (Attacker)50%2.01
J. Foyth (?)20%4.89
S. Agüero (?)20%4.89
P. Dybala (?)20%4.89
E. Andrada (?)20%4.89
P. Gómez (?)20%4.89
N. Valentini (?)20%4.89
T. Geralnik (?)20%4.89
Expected total: 2.3
AT anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
G. Burgstaller (?)7%13.89
F. Grillitsch (Midfielder)7%13.89
J. Baumgartlinger (?)7%13.89
A. Ulmer (?)7%13.89
X. Schlager (Midfielder)7%13.89
S. Ilsanker (?)7%13.89
D. Ljubičić (Midfielder)7%13.89
M. Entrup (?)7%13.89
Expected total: 0.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.29, away 0.75). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.