All matches
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Group F · Matchday 3
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Goals (4)
Substitutions (10)
67'
Tunisia
↑ Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud for Rani Khedira
68'Tunisia
↑ Elias Achouri for Anis Ben Slimane
68'Tunisia
↑ Mortadha Ben Ouanes for Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
72'
Netherlands
↑ C. Summerville for D. Malen
72'Netherlands
↑ T. Koopmeiners for F. de Jong
72'Netherlands
↑ J. Kluivert for T. Reijnders
75'Tunisia
↑ Firas Chaouat for Ismael Gharbi
77'Netherlands
↑ Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey
84'Netherlands
↑ Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo
90'Tunisia
↑ S. Tounekti for H. Mastouri
Match stats
28%Possession72%
10Shots20
4Shots on target7
4Corners6
11Fouls10
2Offsides1
4Saves3
Top performer
BBBrian Brobbey
Netherlands · 1 goal
Lineups
Tunisia5-4-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 4
0.67
Goals / match
2.75
4.00
Conceded / match
1.25
67%
BTTS rate
100%
0%
Clean sheet rate
0%
0.00
xG / match (club)
2.08
4.9
Corners / match
7.4
1.9
Yellows / match
1.3
48%
Possession
65%
Tunisia · last 3
Netherlands · last 4
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Tunisia wins
0
Draws
1
Netherlands wins
Last: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands (2026-06-25)avg 4.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Tunisia
No known absences.
Netherlands
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Netherlands are strong favourites at 85%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 66% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.
Most likely score 0-2 (14%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
-5.9%/+2.2%
Set pieces
-1.1%/+1.8%
Travel
0.0%/-1.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeTunisia
0%
Draw
50%
Netherlands
50%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·100
13·
Attack
·88
25·
Defence
·75
Their advice: Combo Winner : Netherlands and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Tunisia goals
4
9
14
14
10
6
5
7
7
5
0123456
Netherlands goals
Most likely: 0-2 14%, 0-3 14%, 0-4 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 63%
40
101
202
223
194
135
106+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
TunisiaNetherlands
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win4%26.57
Draw11%8.88
Away win85%1.18
Double chance
Home or draw15%6.66
Home or away89%1.13
Draw or away96%1.04
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)4%23.58
Away (DNB)96%1.04
Total goals
Over 0.596%1.04
Under 0.54%25.01
Over 1.586%1.17
Under 1.514%7.03
Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.92
Over 3.544%2.28
Under 3.556%1.78
Over 4.525%3.95
Under 4.575%1.34
Odd / even goals
Odd49%2.05
Even51%1.95
Exact total goals
0 goals4%25.01
1 goals10%9.77
2 goals20%5.00
3 goals22%4.57
4 goals19%5.39
5 goals13%7.96
6+ goals13%7.84
Both teams to score
Yes37%2.73
No63%1.58
Team totals
Home over 0.538%2.62
Home over 1.58%11.88
Home over 2.51%77.42
Away over 0.595%1.06
Away over 1.579%1.27
Away over 2.556%1.80
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet5%18.28
Away clean sheet62%1.62
Win to nil
Home win to nil1%67.95
Away win to nil58%1.73
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.5<1%1017.81
Home -1.51%141.99
Home -0.53%31.80
Home +0.514%6.94
Home +1.532%3.10
Home +2.555%1.84
Correct score (top 8)
0-214%7.00
0-314%7.22
0-410%9.94
0-19%10.84
1-27%14.58
1-37%15.05
0-56%17.11
1-15%18.74
Half-time result
Home6%16.66
Draw28%3.52
Away66%1.52
Half-time goals
Over 0.578%1.28
Under 0.522%4.59
Over 1.545%2.22
Under 1.555%1.82
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home2%52.52
Home/Draw2%56.28
Home/Away2%43.06
Draw/Home2%61.72
Draw/Draw6%15.44
Draw/Away20%4.93
Away/Home<1%427.98
Away/Draw2%56.28
Away/Away64%1.57
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.574%1.35
Under 8.526%3.85
Over 9.563%1.60
Under 9.537%2.67
Over 10.550%1.98
Under 10.550%2.02
Over 11.538%2.60
Under 11.562%1.63
Over 12.528%3.58
Under 12.572%1.39
Expected total: 10.7
TN corners
IndicativeOver 3.572%1.38
Under 3.528%3.61
Over 4.554%1.84
Under 4.546%2.20
Over 5.537%2.71
Under 5.563%1.59
Over 6.523%4.43
Under 6.577%1.29
Expected total: 4.9
NL corners
IndicativeOver 3.583%1.21
Under 3.517%5.83
Over 4.568%1.46
Under 4.532%3.17
Over 5.552%1.93
Under 5.548%2.08
Over 6.536%2.79
Under 6.564%1.56
Expected total: 5.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.76
Over 3.542%2.41
Under 3.558%1.71
Over 4.523%4.27
Under 4.577%1.31
Over 5.512%8.69
Under 5.589%1.13
Expected total: 3.3
TN anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
H. Mastouri (Attacker)15%6.55
F. Chaouat (Attacker)13%7.46
E. Saad (Attacker)13%7.46
K. Ayari (Attacker)13%7.46
Y. Meriah (?)5%21.32
F. Ben Mustapha (?)5%21.32
M. Hassen (?)5%21.32
A. Balbouli (?)5%21.32
Expected total: 0.8
NL anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Cillessen (?)25%3.97
L. Geertruida (Defender)8%11.98
Expected total: 0.4
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.48, away 2.91). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.