Tunisia vs Netherlands
Group F · Matchday 3
· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Goals (4)
Substitutions (10)
↑ Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud for Rani Khedira
↑ Elias Achouri for Anis Ben Slimane
↑ Mortadha Ben Ouanes for Mohamed Amine Ben Hamida
↑ C. Summerville for D. Malen
↑ T. Koopmeiners for F. de Jong
↑ J. Kluivert for T. Reijnders
↑ Firas Chaouat for Ismael Gharbi
↑ Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbey
↑ Noa Lang for Cody Gakpo
↑ S. Tounekti for H. Mastouri
Match stats
Top performer
BBBrian Brobbey
Netherlands · 1 goal
Lineups
Tunisia5-4-1
What's at stake
Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.
Season form comparison
sample home 3 · away 4
Tunisia · last 3
Netherlands · last 4
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Tunisia wins
0
Draws
1
Netherlands wins
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Tunisia
No known absences.
Netherlands
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Netherlands are strong favourites at 85%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 66% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 37%.
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeTunisia
0%
Draw
50%
Netherlands
50%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
Their advice: Combo Winner : Netherlands and +2.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Netherlands goals
Most likely: 0-2 14%, 0-3 14%, 0-4 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 63%
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Double chance
Draw no bet
Total goals
Odd / even goals
Exact total goals
Both teams to score
Team totals
Clean sheet
Win to nil
Asian handicap (home)
Correct score (top 8)
Half-time result
Half-time goals
Half-time / full-time
Corners (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 10.7
TN corners
IndicativeExpected total: 4.9
NL corners
IndicativeExpected total: 5.8
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeExpected total: 3.3
TN anytime goalscorer
Indicativelow sample (n=1)
Expected total: 0.8
NL anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
Expected total: 0.4
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.48, away 2.91). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.