Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

Group H · Matchday 3

· NRG Stadium, Houston

Group H standings →Bracket →CV 100% · SA 0% to advance

Cape Verde

36%

FT

0–0

Saudi Arabia

30%

Share card

Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (4)

4'

S. Abdulhamid

Saudi Arabia
8'

Wagner Pina

Cape Verde
67'

N. Al Dawsari

Saudi Arabia
93'

Firas Al-Buraikan

Saudi Arabia

Substitutions (10)

33'

↑ A. Lajami for H. Tambakti

Saudi Arabia
46'

↑ M. Al Juwayr for A. Al Khaibari

Saudi Arabia
61'

↑ H. Varela for W. Semedo

Cape Verde
61'

↑ N. Da Costa for D. Livramento

Cape Verde
66'

↑ A. Al Hamdan for S. Mandash

Saudi Arabia
66'

↑ M. Abu Al Shamat for S. Al Dawsari

Saudi Arabia
71'

↑ G. Rodrigues for R. Mendes

Cape Verde
71'

↑ L. Duarte for J. Monteiro

Cape Verde
82'

↑ Moteb Al-Harbi for Nawaf Boushal

Saudi Arabia
94'

↑ S. Moreira for W. Pina

Cape Verde

Match stats

51%Possession49%
15Shots7
2Shots on target3
1.52Expected goals0.27
4Corners2
10Fouls16
1Offsides0
3Saves2
85%Pass accuracy81%

Lineups

Cape Verde4-2-3-1

Saudi Arabia4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

1.00
Goals / match
0.33
1.25
Conceded / match
1.67
50%
BTTS rate
33%
50%
Clean sheet rate
33%
0.00
xG / match (club)
0.00
4.7
Corners / match
4.4
1.5
Yellows / match
2.0
51%
Possession
58%

Head to head · 1 meetings

0

Cape Verde wins

1

Draws

0

Saudi Arabia wins

Last: Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia (2026-06-27)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Cape Verde

No known absences.

Saudi Arabia

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Cape Verde edge it at just 36%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (68%).

  • Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 41%.

Most likely score 0-0 (16%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Travel
-1.0%/0.0%
Club xG form
-2.8%/-1.8%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two-model consensus

Cape Verde

50%

Draw

50%

Saudi Arabia

0%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

67·
Form
·33
67·
Attack
·33
71·
Defence
·29

Their advice: Double chance : Cape Verde Islands or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Key players to watch

Per-90 stats: Rising Transfers (risingtransfers.com), CC BY 4.0

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Cape Verde goals
16
11
6
13
15
6
8
7
0123456

Saudi Arabia goals

Most likely: 0-0 16%, 1-1 15%, 1-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 31%

16
0
24
1
29
2
18
3
9
4
3
5
1
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
Cape VerdeSaudi Arabia

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win36%2.80
Draw35%2.89
Away win30%3.37

Double chance

Home or draw70%1.42
Home or away65%1.53
Draw or away64%1.56

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)55%1.83
Away (DNB)45%2.20

Total goals

Over 0.584%1.19
Under 0.516%6.36
Over 1.560%1.66
Under 1.540%2.52
Over 2.531%3.18
Under 2.569%1.46
Over 3.514%7.28
Under 3.586%1.16
Over 4.55%20.04
Under 4.595%1.05

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.20
Even54%1.84

Exact total goals

0 goals16%6.36
1 goals24%4.17
2 goals29%3.47
3 goals18%5.63
4 goals9%11.44
5 goals3%29.05
6+ goals2%64.64

Both teams to score

Yes41%2.45
No59%1.69

Team totals

Home over 0.565%1.54
Home over 1.528%3.56
Home over 2.59%11.27
Away over 0.560%1.66
Away over 1.524%4.23
Away over 2.57%14.96

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet40%2.52
Away clean sheet35%2.84

Win to nil

Home win to nil24%4.17
Away win to nil19%5.14

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.54%22.71
Home -1.515%6.76
Home -0.536%2.79
Home +0.570%1.42
Home +1.589%1.12
Home +2.597%1.03

Correct score (top 8)

0-016%6.36
1-115%6.57
1-013%7.79
0-111%8.97
2-08%13.12
2-17%14.20
1-26%16.06
0-26%16.78

Half-time result

Home27%3.70
Draw50%2.01
Away23%4.30

Half-time goals

Over 0.559%1.70
Under 0.541%2.43
Over 1.522%4.50
Under 1.578%1.29

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home21%4.69
Home/Draw4%22.34
Home/Away1%78.98
Draw/Home15%6.72
Draw/Draw22%4.52
Draw/Away13%7.87
Away/Home1%68.21
Away/Draw4%22.34
Away/Away17%5.78

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 8.558%1.72
Under 8.542%2.40
Over 9.545%2.21
Under 9.555%1.82
Over 10.533%3.03
Under 10.567%1.49
Over 11.523%4.41
Under 11.577%1.29
Over 12.515%6.81
Under 12.585%1.17

Expected total: 9.3

CV corners

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

SA corners

Indicative
Over 3.566%1.53
Under 3.535%2.90
Over 4.546%2.15
Under 4.554%1.87
Over 5.529%3.40
Under 5.571%1.42
Over 6.517%5.99
Under 6.583%1.20

Expected total: 4.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.18
Over 3.547%2.13
Under 3.553%1.89
Over 4.528%3.56
Under 4.572%1.39
Over 5.515%6.81
Under 5.585%1.17

Expected total: 3.5

CV anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

Gilson Benchimol (Attacker)27%3.72
D. Livramento (Attacker)27%3.72
Kevin Pina (Midfielder)11%8.83
Jovane Cabral (Midfielder)10%10.08
Zé Luís (?)10%10.08
Steven Pereira (?)10%10.08
Patrick Andrade (?)10%10.08
Ludovic Soares (?)10%10.08

Expected total: 1.3

SA anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Sultan Mandash (Attacker)24%4.13
Feras Al Brikan (Attacker)24%4.13
Abdullah Al Hamdan (Attacker)24%4.13
Saleh Al Shehri (Attacker)24%4.13
Khalid Al Ghannam (Attacker)24%4.13
Musab Al Juwayr (Attacker)24%4.13
Abdullah Al Jadani (?)9%11.33
Abdullah Hussain Ali Al Saleh (?)9%11.33

Expected total: 1.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.04, away 0.92). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.