Algeria vs Austria

Group J · Matchday 3

· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Group J standings →Bracket →DZ 100% · AT 100% to advance

Algeria

20%

3–3

Austria

54%

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Goals (6)

28'

M. Arnautovic

Austria

45'

R. Belghali

Algeria

55'

M. Sabitzer

assist: K. Laimer

Austria

60'

R. Mahrez

Algeria

90'

R. Mahrez

assist: H. Aouar

Algeria

90'

S. Kalajdzic

assist: M. Gregoritsch

Austria

Cards (1)

11'

M. Arnautovic

Austria

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ F. Grillitsch for X. Schlager

Austria

46'

↑ P. Wanner for R. Schmid

Austria

46'

↑ M. Gregoritsch for M. Arnautovic

Austria

62'

↑ K. Danso for D. Alaba

Austria

71'

↑ R. Ait-Nouri for J. Hadjam

Algeria

71'

↑ S. Chergui for R. Belghali

Algeria

71'

↑ Z. Belaid for A. Gouiri

Algeria

94'

↑ F. Ghedjemis for H. Aouar

Algeria

95'

↑ S. Kalajdzic for P. Mwene

Austria

Match stats

65%Possession35%

12Shots9

5Shots on target2

1.59Expected goals1.18

0Corners3

3Fouls7

1Offsides3

0Saves2

94%Pass accuracy87%

Top performer

R. Mahrez

Algeria · 2 goals

Lineups

Algeria4-3-3

Austria4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Matchday 3, final group game. Both sides know the exact result they need.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

1.25

Goals / match

1.50

2.25

Conceded / match

2.25

50%

BTTS rate

50%

Clean sheet rate

0.00

xG / match (club)

2.27

6.2

Corners / match

4.9

2.3

Yellows / match

1.7

60%

Possession

59%

Algeria · last 4

Argentina3-017 June WA

Austria · last 4

Argentina2-022 June DA

Algeria3-328 June LA

Spain3-02 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Algeria wins

Draws

Austria wins

Last: Algeria 0-0 Austria (2026-06-28)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Algeria

No known absences.

Austria

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Austria are slight favourites at 54%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 54%).

Most likely score 1-1 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Club xG form

-3.0%/+1.1%

Rest days

-2.0%/+2.0%

Travel

-3.0%/-3.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Algeria

10%

Draw

45%

Austria

45%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

40·

Attack

·60

43·

Defence

·57

Their advice: Double chance : draw or Austria

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Algeria goals

0123456

Austria goals

Most likely: 1-1 12%, 1-2 10%, 0-2 10%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 53%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AlgeriaAustria

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win20%5.00

Draw26%3.86

Away win54%1.85

Double chance

Home or draw46%2.18

Home or away74%1.35

Draw or away80%1.25

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)27%3.70

Away (DNB)73%1.37

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08

Under 0.57%13.55

Over 1.579%1.27

Under 1.521%4.68

Over 2.554%1.87

Under 2.546%2.15

Over 3.531%3.20

Under 3.569%1.45

Over 4.516%6.44

Under 4.584%1.18

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.13

Even53%1.89

Exact total goals

0 goals7%13.55

1 goals14%7.15

2 goals25%3.98

3 goals22%4.49

4 goals16%6.37

5 goals9%11.30

6+ goals7%14.98

Both teams to score

Yes54%1.84

No46%2.19

Team totals

Home over 0.563%1.58

Home over 1.527%3.77

Home over 2.58%12.40

Away over 0.584%1.19

Away over 1.554%1.84

Away over 2.527%3.65

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet16%6.15

Away clean sheet37%2.72

Win to nil

Home win to nil9%11.27

Away win to nil29%3.41

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.52%50.38

Home -1.57%13.76

Home -0.519%5.21

Home +0.545%2.23

Home +1.568%1.48

Home +2.585%1.18

Correct score (top 8)

1-112%8.15

1-210%10.13

0-210%10.15

0-19%10.61

0-07%13.55

1-36%16.73

0-36%16.76

2-15%18.37

Half-time result

Home19%5.28

Draw39%2.53

Away42%2.40

Half-time goals

Over 0.572%1.39

Under 0.528%3.56

Over 1.536%2.76

Under 1.564%1.57

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home11%8.76

Home/Draw5%21.67

Home/Away3%34.54

Draw/Home8%12.75

Draw/Draw14%7.32

Draw/Away18%5.56

Away/Home1%73.51

Away/Draw5%21.67

Away/Away36%2.81

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.577%1.29

Under 8.523%4.39

Over 9.566%1.50

Under 9.534%2.98

Over 10.555%1.83

Under 10.545%2.20

Over 11.543%2.34

Under 11.557%1.74

Over 12.532%3.16

Under 12.568%1.46

Expected total: 11.1

DZ corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.24

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.35

Over 5.554%1.86

Under 5.546%2.17

Over 6.538%2.65

Under 6.562%1.61

Expected total: 5.9

AT corners

Indicative

Over 3.576%1.32

Under 3.524%4.08

Over 4.559%1.71

Under 4.541%2.41

Over 5.541%2.44

Under 5.559%1.69

Over 6.526%3.85

Under 6.574%1.35

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.576%1.32

Under 2.524%4.08

Over 3.556%1.79

Under 3.544%2.26

Over 4.536%2.76

Under 4.564%1.57

Over 5.521%4.81

Under 5.579%1.26

Expected total: 4.0

DZ anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

A. Benbouali (Attacker)29%3.42

A. Boulbina (Attacker)26%3.85

F. Ghedjemis (Attacker)26%3.85

Y. Brahimi (?)10%10.49

I. Belfodil (?)10%10.49

Y. Atal (?)10%10.49

M. Belkhither (?)10%10.49

B. Bounedjah (?)10%10.49

Expected total: 1.4

AT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

G. Burgstaller (?)17%6.02

F. Grillitsch (Midfielder)17%6.02

J. Baumgartlinger (?)17%6.02

A. Ulmer (?)17%6.02

X. Schlager (Midfielder)17%6.02

S. Ilsanker (?)17%6.02

D. Ljubičić (Midfielder)17%6.02

M. Entrup (?)17%6.02

Expected total: 1.5

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.00, away 1.82). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.