All matches
Germany vs Paraguay
Group null · Matchday 4
· Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Decided on penalties
1-1 after ET · 3-4 pens
Germany3
Paraguay4
Goals (2)
Cards (4)
65'Paraguay
A. Cubas
106'Germany
K. Havertz
115'Germany
J. Musiala
117'Paraguay
Matías Galarza
Substitutions (12)
46'Germany
↑ L. Goretzka for F. Nmecha
55'Paraguay
↑ G. Caballero for G. Avalos
57'Paraguay
↑ Mauricio for J. Enciso
63'Germany
↑ J. Musiala for D. Undav
79'Germany
↑ W. Anton for A. Pavlovic
88'Germany
↑ Nick Woltemade for Leroy Sané
91'Paraguay
↑ G. Velazquez for M. Almiron
99'Paraguay
↑ A. Sanabria for D. Bobadilla
99'Paraguay
↑ B. Ojeda for J. Caceres
110'Germany
↑ N. Amiri for F. Wirtz
110'Germany
↑ M. Thiaw for A. Rudiger
122'Paraguay
↑ Fabian Balbuena for J. Alonso
Match stats
75%Possession25%
21Shots7
6Shots on target3
1.49Expected goals0.42
16Corners6
18Fouls12
4Offsides1
2Saves6
90%Pass accuracy63%
Top performer
JEJ. Enciso
Paraguay · 1 goal
Lineups
Germany4-2-3-1
What's at stake
Knockout fixture, single elimination.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 5
2.75
Goals / match
0.60
1.25
Conceded / match
1.20
100%
BTTS rate
40%
0%
Clean sheet rate
40%
1.99
xG / match (club)
0.90
6.2
Corners / match
4.0
1.5
Yellows / match
2.6
68%
Possession
47%
Head to head · 1 meetings
0
Germany wins
1
Draws
0
Paraguay wins
Last: Germany 0-0 Paraguay (2026-06-29)avg 0.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Germany
No known absences.
Paraguay
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Germany are strong favourites at 70%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 50%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 40%.
Most likely score 2-0 (15%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
+6.0%/-6.0%
Club xG form
+3.3%/-7.8%
Set pieces
+2.1%/-1.5%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models moderately agreeGermany
45%
Draw
45%
Paraguay
10%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
60·
Form
·40
83·
Attack
·17
50·
Defence
·50
Their advice: Combo Winner : Germany and +1.5 goals
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Germany goals
8
13
10
15
9
10
6
5
0123456
Paraguay goals
Most likely: 2-0 15%, 1-0 13%, 3-0 10%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 49%
80
161
262
223
154
85
56+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
GermanyParaguay
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win70%1.42
Draw21%4.86
Away win9%10.92
Double chance
Home or draw91%1.10
Home or away79%1.26
Draw or away30%3.36
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)88%1.13
Away (DNB)12%8.67
Total goals
Over 0.592%1.09
Under 0.58%12.52
Over 1.576%1.32
Under 1.524%4.13
Over 2.550%2.00
Under 2.550%2.00
Over 3.528%3.56
Under 3.572%1.39
Over 4.513%7.49
Under 4.587%1.15
Odd / even goals
Odd48%2.10
Even52%1.91
Exact total goals
0 goals8%12.52
1 goals16%6.17
2 goals26%3.88
3 goals22%4.55
4 goals15%6.80
5 goals8%12.70
6+ goals5%18.24
Both teams to score
Yes40%2.49
No60%1.67
Team totals
Home over 0.588%1.14
Home over 1.562%1.62
Home over 2.535%2.89
Away over 0.545%2.24
Away over 1.512%8.38
Away over 2.52%44.78
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet55%1.81
Away clean sheet12%8.04
Win to nil
Home win to nil47%2.11
Away win to nil4%22.44
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.525%4.01
Home -1.547%2.12
Home -0.571%1.40
Home +0.592%1.09
Home +1.598%1.02
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
2-015%6.69
1-013%7.55
3-010%9.63
1-110%10.42
2-19%11.30
0-08%12.52
3-16%16.27
4-05%18.48
Half-time result
Home52%1.93
Draw38%2.63
Away10%9.71
Half-time goals
Over 0.570%1.43
Under 0.530%3.33
Over 1.534%2.95
Under 1.566%1.51
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home48%2.08
Home/Draw3%32.78
Home/Away1%196.00
Draw/Home22%4.61
Draw/Draw12%8.14
Draw/Away4%25.11
Away/Home2%41.39
Away/Draw3%32.78
Away/Away5%20.72
Corners (match total)
IndicativeOver 8.567%1.48
Under 8.533%3.07
Over 9.555%1.82
Under 9.545%2.22
Over 10.543%2.35
Under 10.557%1.74
Over 11.531%3.22
Under 11.569%1.45
Over 12.521%4.66
Under 12.579%1.27
Expected total: 10.1
DE corners
IndicativeOver 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.25
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61
Expected total: 5.9
PY corners
IndicativeOver 3.560%1.67
Under 3.540%2.48
Over 4.540%2.48
Under 4.560%1.67
Over 5.524%4.15
Under 5.576%1.32
Over 6.513%7.80
Under 6.587%1.15
Expected total: 4.2
Yellow cards (match total)
IndicativeOver 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.24
Over 3.557%1.76
Under 3.543%2.32
Over 4.537%2.67
Under 4.563%1.60
Over 5.522%4.60
Under 5.578%1.28
Expected total: 4.0
DE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
M. Dahoud (?)19%5.32
J. Weigl (?)19%5.32
A. Younes (?)19%5.32
S. Rudy (?)19%5.32
M. Hummels (?)19%5.32
N. Süle (?)19%5.32
L. Goretzka (Midfielder)19%5.32
N. Schulz (?)19%5.32
Expected total: 1.7
PY anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
A. Romero (Attacker)16%6.15
L. Melgarejo (?)6%17.39
A. Silva (?)6%17.39
B. Valdez (?)6%17.39
S. Arzamendia (?)6%17.39
R. Rojas (?)6%17.39
C. González (?)6%17.39
G. Giménez (?)6%17.39
Expected total: 0.6
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.08, away 0.59). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.