Germany vs Ivory Coast

Group E · Matchday 2

· BMO Field, Toronto

Group E standings →Bracket →DE 100% · CI 100% to advance

Germany

64%

2–1

HT 0–1

Ivory Coast

13%

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Goals (3)

30'

Franck Kessié

Ivory Coast

68'

Deniz Undav

assist: Nadiem Amiri

Germany

90'

D. Undav

assist: F. Nmecha

Germany

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ Antonio Rüdiger for Nico Schlotterbeck

Germany

60'

↑ Nadiem Amiri for Aleksandar Pavlović

Germany

60'

↑ J. Leweling for L. Sane

Germany

60'

↑ D. Undav for J. Musiala

Germany

75'

↑ S. Fofana for I. Sangare

Ivory Coast

75'

↑ E. Guessand for A. Bonny

Ivory Coast

75'

↑ S. Adingra for A. Diallo

Ivory Coast

82'

↑ Guéla Doué for Wilfried Singo

Ivory Coast

85'

↑ Leon Goretzka for Kai Havertz

Germany

85'

↑ Nicolas Pépé for Yan Diomande

Ivory Coast

Match stats

59%Possession41%

16Shots9

7Shots on target2

1.83Expected goals1.23

8Corners3

5Fouls7

0Offsides1

1Saves5

89%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

Franck Kessié

Ivory Coast · 1 goal

Lineups

Germany4-2-3-1

Ivory Coast4-1-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group E. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

2.75

Goals / match

1.25

Conceded / match

1.00

100%

BTTS rate

50%

Clean sheet rate

50%

1.99

xG / match (club)

0.00

6.2

Corners / match

5.0

1.5

Yellows / match

2.2

68%

Possession

55%

Germany · last 4

Curacao7-114 June WH

Ivory Coast2-120 June LA

Ivory Coast · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Germany wins

Draws

Ivory Coast wins

Last: Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast (2026-06-20)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Germany

No known absences.

Ivory Coast

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Germany are strong favourites at 64%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 53%).

Most likely score 2-0 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Club xG form

+2.6%/-5.6%

Rest days

+2.0%/-2.0%

Set pieces

+1.6%/-0.8%

Travel

0.0%/-1.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Germany

35%

Draw

35%

Ivory Coast

30%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

50·

Form

·50

88·

Attack

·13

0·

Defence

·100

Their advice: Combo Winner : Germany and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Germany goals

0123456

Ivory Coast goals

Most likely: 2-0 12%, 1-0 11%, 1-1 11%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 52%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

GermanyIvory Coast

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win64%1.57

Draw23%4.37

Away win13%7.53

Double chance

Home or draw87%1.15

Home or away77%1.30

Draw or away36%2.76

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)83%1.21

Away (DNB)17%5.80

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08

Under 0.57%13.56

Over 1.578%1.28

Under 1.522%4.55

Over 2.553%1.89

Under 2.547%2.12

Over 3.531%3.26

Under 3.569%1.44

Over 4.515%6.61

Under 4.585%1.18

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals7%13.56

1 goals15%6.85

2 goals25%3.98

3 goals22%4.50

4 goals16%6.44

5 goals9%11.53

6+ goals6%15.51

Both teams to score

Yes48%2.08

No52%1.93

Team totals

Home over 0.587%1.15

Home over 1.560%1.67

Home over 2.533%3.06

Away over 0.554%1.85

Away over 1.518%5.43

Away over 2.54%22.43

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet46%2.18

Away clean sheet13%7.49

Win to nil

Home win to nil38%2.60

Away win to nil6%16.71

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.521%4.76

Home -1.541%2.42

Home -0.565%1.54

Home +0.588%1.14

Home +1.596%1.04

Home +2.599%1.01

Correct score (top 8)

2-012%8.06

1-011%9.03

1-111%9.20

2-110%10.33

3-08%12.01

0-07%13.56

3-16%15.40

4-04%23.87

Half-time result

Home48%2.09

Draw38%2.61

Away14%7.22

Half-time goals

Over 0.572%1.40

Under 0.528%3.51

Over 1.536%2.79

Under 1.564%1.56

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home43%2.31

Home/Draw4%26.28

Home/Away1%117.59

Draw/Home20%4.96

Draw/Draw13%7.92

Draw/Away5%18.32

Away/Home3%35.71

Away/Draw4%26.28

Away/Away7%13.80

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 8.576%1.32

Under 8.524%4.15

Over 9.565%1.54

Under 9.535%2.85

Over 10.553%1.89

Under 10.547%2.12

Over 11.541%2.44

Under 11.559%1.69

Over 12.530%3.33

Under 12.570%1.43

Expected total: 10.9

DE corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.25

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.35

Over 5.554%1.86

Under 5.546%2.17

Over 6.538%2.65

Under 6.562%1.61

Expected total: 5.9

CI corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.574%1.36

Under 3.527%3.77

Over 4.556%1.79

Under 4.544%2.27

Over 5.538%2.60

Under 5.562%1.62

Over 6.524%4.20

Under 6.576%1.31

Expected total: 5.0

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.570%1.43

Under 2.530%3.35

Over 3.549%2.04

Under 3.551%1.96

Over 4.530%3.35

Under 4.570%1.42

Over 5.516%6.28

Under 5.584%1.19

Expected total: 3.6

DE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

M. Dahoud (?)18%5.49

J. Weigl (?)18%5.49

A. Younes (?)18%5.49

S. Rudy (?)18%5.49

M. Hummels (?)18%5.49

N. Süle (?)18%5.49

L. Goretzka (Midfielder)18%5.49

N. Schulz (?)18%5.49

Expected total: 1.6

CI anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

F. Kessié (Midfielder)9%11.66

J. Aholou (?)8%13.33

R. Assalé (?)8%13.33

S. Doumbia (?)8%13.33

A. Cissé (?)8%13.33

Sylvain Gbohouo (?)8%13.33

B. Sangaré (?)8%13.33

W. Coulibaly (?)8%13.33

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.01, away 0.78). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.