Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Group E · Matchday 1

· Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Group E standings →Bracket →CI 100% · EC 100% to advance

Ivory Coast

22%

1–0

HT 0–0

Ecuador

42%

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Goals (1)

90'

A. Diallo

assist: W. Singo

Ivory Coast

Cards (4)

28'

Seko Fofana

Ivory Coast

38'

Franck Kessié

Ivory Coast

40'

Guéla Doué

Ivory Coast

73'

Jackson Porozo

Ecuador

Substitutions (9)

56'

↑ A. Diallo for B. Toure

Ivory Coast

56'

↑ A. Bonny for E. Wahi

Ivory Coast

56'

↑ N. Angulo for A. Minda

Ecuador

62'

↑ A. Preciado for J. Yeboah

Ecuador

62'

↑ J. Porozo for A. Franco

Ecuador

77'

↑ I. Sangare for S. Fofana

Ivory Coast

77'

↑ C. Inao Oulai for N. Pepe

Ivory Coast

77'

↑ K. Rodriguez for E. Valencia

Ecuador

89'

↑ O. Kossounou for G. Doue

Ivory Coast

Match stats

48%Possession52%

15Shots12

4Shots on target1

1.52Expected goals1.01

3Corners5

10Fouls13

1Saves3

84%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

A. Diallo

Ivory Coast · 1 goal

Lineups

Ivory Coast4-4-2

Ecuador4-4-2

What's at stake

Matchday 1, Group E opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 4

1.25

Goals / match

0.50

1.00

Conceded / match

1.00

50%

BTTS rate

25%

50%

Clean sheet rate

25%

0.00

xG / match (club)

1.36

5.0

Corners / match

5.2

2.2

Yellows / match

2.0

55%

Possession

54%

Ivory Coast · last 4

Ecuador · last 4

Ivory Coast1-014 June DH

Curacao0-021 June WH

Germany2-125 June LA

Mexico2-01 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Ivory Coast wins

Draws

Ecuador wins

Last: Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador (2026-06-14)avg 1.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Ivory Coast

No known absences.

Ecuador

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

Result: An open match. Ecuador edge it at just 42%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (76%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 32%.

Most likely score 0-0 (20%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

+2.0%/-2.0%

Club xG form

-3.0%/-2.8%

Travel

-3.0%/-3.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Ivory Coast

33%

Draw

33%

Ecuador

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·0

0·

Defence

·0

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Ivory Coast goals

0123456

Ecuador goals

Most likely: 0-0 20%, 0-1 18%, 1-1 14%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 24%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

Ivory CoastEcuador

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win22%4.61

Draw37%2.73

Away win42%2.40

Double chance

Home or draw58%1.72

Home or away63%1.58

Draw or away78%1.28

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)34%2.92

Away (DNB)66%1.52

Total goals

Over 0.580%1.25

Under 0.520%4.95

Over 1.552%1.93

Under 1.548%2.07

Over 2.524%4.20

Under 2.576%1.31

Over 3.59%11.03

Under 3.591%1.10

Over 4.53%35.03

Under 4.597%1.03

Odd / even goals

Odd45%2.22

Even55%1.82

Exact total goals

0 goals20%4.95

1 goals28%3.57

2 goals28%3.58

3 goals15%6.77

4 goals6%16.10

5 goals2%47.83

6+ goals1%130.92

Both teams to score

Yes32%3.08

No68%1.48

Team totals

Home over 0.548%2.09

Home over 1.514%7.18

Home over 2.53%35.01

Away over 0.564%1.55

Away over 1.528%3.63

Away over 2.59%11.62

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet36%2.80

Away clean sheet52%1.92

Win to nil

Home win to nil15%6.47

Away win to nil32%3.14

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.51%83.66

Home -1.56%16.37

Home -0.521%4.73

Home +0.558%1.73

Home +1.582%1.21

Home +2.595%1.06

Correct score (top 8)

0-020%4.95

0-118%5.70

1-114%7.08

1-010%9.53

0-210%10.13

1-26%15.53

2-14%24.56

2-04%25.32

Half-time result

Home17%5.87

Draw53%1.87

Away29%3.39

Half-time goals

Over 0.553%1.88

Under 0.547%2.13

Over 1.518%5.68

Under 1.582%1.21

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home12%8.34

Home/Draw4%26.31

Home/Away1%80.01

Draw/Home10%9.95

Draw/Draw26%3.89

Draw/Away18%5.65

Away/Home1%136.14

Away/Draw4%26.31

Away/Away25%4.01

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 8.569%1.44

Under 8.531%3.26

Over 9.557%1.75

Under 9.543%2.33

Over 10.545%2.24

Under 10.555%1.81

Over 11.533%3.03

Under 11.567%1.49

Over 12.523%4.33

Under 12.577%1.30

Expected total: 10.2

CI corners

Indicative

low sample (n=13)

Over 3.574%1.36

Under 3.527%3.77

Over 4.556%1.79

Under 4.544%2.27

Over 5.538%2.60

Under 5.562%1.62

Over 6.524%4.20

Under 6.576%1.31

Expected total: 5.0

EC corners

Indicative

Over 3.577%1.30

Under 3.523%4.28

Over 4.560%1.67

Under 4.540%2.50

Over 5.543%2.35

Under 5.557%1.74

Over 6.527%3.67

Under 6.573%1.38

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.577%1.29

Under 2.523%4.42

Over 3.558%1.72

Under 3.542%2.39

Over 4.539%2.58

Under 4.561%1.63

Over 5.523%4.39

Under 5.577%1.29

Expected total: 4.1

CI anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

F. Kessié (Midfielder)7%13.85

J. Aholou (?)6%15.85

R. Assalé (?)6%15.85

S. Doumbia (?)6%15.85

A. Cissé (?)6%15.85

Sylvain Gbohouo (?)6%15.85

B. Sangaré (?)6%15.85

W. Coulibaly (?)6%15.85

Expected total: 0.5

EC anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Yeboah (Attacker)27%3.76

C. Noboa (?)10%10.20

Alexander Domínguez Carabalí (?)10%10.20

P. Ortíz (?)10%10.20

X. Arreaga (?)10%10.20

B. Caicedo (?)10%10.20

R. Ibarra (?)10%10.20

Á. Mena (?)10%10.20

Expected total: 1.0

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 0.65, away 1.03). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.