Ecuador vs Curacao

Group E · Matchday 2

· Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Group E standings →Bracket →EC 100% · CW 0% to advance

Ecuador

62%

0–0

HT 0–0

Curacao

10%

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Goals

No goals scored.

Cards (6)

38'

J. Alcivar

Ecuador

39'

L. Bacuna

Curacao

53'

J. Bacuna

Curacao

56'

L. Comenencia

Curacao

75'

J. Gaari

Curacao

91'

G. Kastaneer

Curacao

Substitutions (9)

46'

↑ K. Rodriguez for J. Alcivar

Ecuador

70'

↑ N. Angulo for P. Estupinan

Ecuador

75'

↑ K. Gorre for J. Bacuna

Curacao

76'

↑ J. Margaritha for T. Chong

Curacao

76'

↑ R. van Eijma for D. Fonville

Curacao

83'

↑ A. Preciado for A. Franco

Ecuador

83'

↑ G. Kastaneer for J. Locadia

Curacao

84'

↑ G. Roemeratoe for L. Comenencia

Curacao

89'

↑ J. Caicedo for J. Yeboah

Ecuador

Match stats

75%Possession25%

28Shots10

15Shots on target3

3.06Expected goals0.48

8Corners0

7Fouls10

1Offsides2

3Saves15

90%Pass accuracy70%

Lineups

Ecuador3-1-4-2

Curacao5-4-1

What's at stake

Matchday 2, Group E. The losing side here typically needs a Matchday 3 win plus favourable other-game results to advance.

Season form comparison

sample home 4 · away 3

0.50

Goals / match

0.33

1.00

Conceded / match

3.00

25%

BTTS rate

33%

25%

Clean sheet rate

33%

1.36

xG / match (club)

0.00

5.2

Corners / match

4.7

2.0

Yellows / match

1.6

54%

Possession

56%

Ecuador · last 4

Ivory Coast1-014 June DH

Curacao · last 3

Ivory Coast0-225 June

Head to head · 1 meetings

Ecuador wins

Draws

Curacao wins

Last: Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao (2026-06-21)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Ecuador

No known absences.

Curacao

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Ecuador are strong favourites at 62%.
Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (70%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 28%.

Most likely score 1-0 (21%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Travel

-3.0%/-1.0%

Set pieces

+0.8%/-1.0%

Club xG form

-2.1%/-3.3%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Ecuador

33%

Draw

33%

Curacao

33%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

0·

Form

·0

0·

Attack

·100

88·

Defence

·13

Their advice: No predictions available

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Ecuador goals

0123456

Curacao goals

Most likely: 1-0 21%, 2-0 17%, 0-0 16%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 30%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

EcuadorCuracao

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win62%1.61

Draw28%3.59

Away win10%10.18

Double chance

Home or draw90%1.11

Home or away72%1.39

Draw or away38%2.65

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)86%1.16

Away (DNB)14%7.34

Total goals

Over 0.584%1.19

Under 0.516%6.29

Over 1.558%1.72

Under 1.542%2.40

Over 2.530%3.32

Under 2.570%1.43

Over 3.513%7.80

Under 3.587%1.15

Over 4.55%21.99

Under 4.595%1.05

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.15

Even53%1.87

Exact total goals

0 goals16%6.29

1 goals26%3.88

2 goals28%3.54

3 goals17%5.79

4 goals8%12.09

5 goals3%31.52

6+ goals1%72.72

Both teams to score

Yes28%3.60

No72%1.38

Team totals

Home over 0.578%1.29

Home over 1.544%2.26

Home over 2.519%5.25

Away over 0.534%2.92

Away over 1.57%14.99

Away over 2.51%111.31

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet66%1.52

Away clean sheet22%4.47

Win to nil

Home win to nil50%2.01

Away win to nil6%15.50

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.514%6.92

Home -1.535%2.88

Home -0.563%1.58

Home +0.591%1.10

Home +1.598%1.02

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

1-021%4.80

2-017%6.06

0-016%6.29

1-110%9.59

3-08%12.14

2-17%14.47

0-15%20.16

3-13%28.97

Half-time result

Home43%2.33

Draw48%2.09

Away9%10.74

Half-time goals

Over 0.558%1.73

Under 0.542%2.37

Over 1.521%4.68

Under 1.579%1.27

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home40%2.51

Home/Draw3%36.09

Home/Away<1%302.68

Draw/Home23%4.33

Draw/Draw20%5.01

Draw/Away5%21.20

Away/Home1%68.54

Away/Draw3%36.09

Away/Away5%19.70

Corners (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 8.567%1.49

Under 8.533%3.05

Over 9.555%1.83

Under 9.545%2.21

Over 10.542%2.37

Under 10.558%1.73

Over 11.531%3.24

Under 11.569%1.45

Over 12.521%4.70

Under 12.579%1.27

Expected total: 10.1

EC corners

Indicative

Over 3.577%1.30

Under 3.523%4.28

Over 4.560%1.67

Under 4.540%2.50

Over 5.543%2.35

Under 5.557%1.74

Over 6.527%3.67

Under 6.573%1.38

Expected total: 5.2

CW corners

Indicative

low sample (n=11)

Over 3.571%1.41

Under 3.529%3.42

Over 4.553%1.90

Under 4.547%2.11

Over 5.535%2.85

Under 5.565%1.54

Over 6.521%4.74

Under 6.579%1.27

Expected total: 4.8

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

low sample (n=10)

Over 2.571%1.42

Under 2.530%3.39

Over 3.549%2.02

Under 3.551%1.98

Over 4.530%3.31

Under 4.570%1.43

Over 5.516%6.17

Under 5.584%1.19

Expected total: 3.6

EC anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Yeboah (Attacker)36%2.76

C. Noboa (?)14%7.19

Alexander Domínguez Carabalí (?)14%7.19

P. Ortíz (?)14%7.19

X. Arreaga (?)14%7.19

B. Caicedo (?)14%7.19

R. Ibarra (?)14%7.19

Á. Mena (?)14%7.19

Expected total: 1.5

CW anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Locadia (Attacker)12%8.47

B. Kuwas (Attacker)12%8.47

G. Kastaneer (Attacker)12%8.47

J. Antonisse (Attacker)12%8.47

J. Margaritha (Attacker)12%8.47

R. Janga (?)4%24.39

R. Bonevacia (?)4%24.39

Gino Ronald van Kessel (?)4%24.39

Expected total: 0.8

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.50, away 0.42). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.