All matches
Germany vs Curacao
Group E · Matchday 1
· NRG Stadium, Houston
Goals (8)
Substitutions (8)
46'
Curacao
↑ J. Antonisse for S. Hansen
64'
Germany
↑ D. Undav for J. Musiala
65'Curacao
↑ J. Margaritha for J. Locadia
73'Germany
↑ L. Goretzka for F. Nmecha
73'Germany
↑ A. Rudiger for J. Tah
73'Germany
↑ D. Raum for N. Brown
83'Germany
↑ W. Anton for J. Kimmich
83'Curacao
↑ G. Kastaneer for T. Chong
Match stats
65%Possession35%
26Shots8
12Shots on target2
4.22Expected goals0.41
8Corners1
18Fouls11
0Offsides1
1Saves4
87%Pass accuracy82%
Top performer
KHK. Havertz
Germany · 2 goals
Lineups
Germany4-2-3-1
Curacao4-3-1-2
What's at stake
Matchday 1, Group E opener. A win swings ~30 percentage points of qualification odds.
Season form comparison
sample home 4 · away 3
2.75
Goals / match
0.33
1.25
Conceded / match
3.00
100%
BTTS rate
33%
0%
Clean sheet rate
33%
1.99
xG / match (club)
0.00
6.2
Corners / match
4.7
1.5
Yellows / match
1.6
68%
Possession
56%
Curacao · last 3
Head to head · 1 meetings
1
Germany wins
0
Draws
0
Curacao wins
Last: Germany 7-1 Curaçao (2026-06-14)avg 8.0 goals
Absences
model swing: 0 / 0 pp
Germany
No known absences.
Curacao
No known absences.
Win probability
Pre-match
The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.
Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.
The model's read
High confidenceResult: Germany are strong favourites at 90%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 80% of the time.
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 43%.
Most likely score 3-0 (12%)
Why the model leans this way
Factor contributions
home←·→away
Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Club xG form
+3.3%/-5.9%
Set pieces
+2.4%/-2.0%
Travel
0.0%/-3.0%
Two-model view
Second model api-football
Two models divergeGermany
33%
Draw
33%
Curacao
33%
Their internal ratings (0-100)
0·
Form
·0
0·
Attack
·0
0·
Defence
·0
Their advice: No predictions available
Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.
Match analysis
Score-line probability
brighter = more likely
Germany goals
5
9
5
12
7
11
6
8
5
5
0123456
Curacao goals
Most likely: 3-0 12%, 4-0 11%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.
Total goals
over 2.5 = 72%
20
51
132
183
194
175
186+
Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.
Team comparison
GermanyCuracao
Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.
Fair odds for every market
How to use this
Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.
Match result
Home win90%1.11
Draw7%14.04
Away win3%37.31
Double chance
Home or draw97%1.03
Home or away93%1.08
Draw or away10%10.20
Draw no bet
Home (DNB)97%1.03
Away (DNB)3%34.66
Total goals
Over 0.598%1.02
Under 0.52%57.25
Over 1.593%1.07
Under 1.57%14.63
Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%5.05
Over 3.562%1.61
Under 3.538%2.64
Over 4.543%2.34
Under 4.557%1.75
Odd / even goals
Odd49%2.03
Even51%1.97
Exact total goals
0 goals2%57.25
1 goals5%19.65
2 goals13%7.71
3 goals18%5.55
4 goals19%5.16
5 goals17%6.01
6+ goals26%3.82
Both teams to score
Yes43%2.30
No57%1.77
Team totals
Home over 0.598%1.03
Home over 1.588%1.13
Home over 2.572%1.40
Away over 0.544%2.26
Away over 1.512%8.60
Away over 2.52%46.58
Clean sheet
Home clean sheet56%1.79
Away clean sheet2%40.95
Win to nil
Home win to nil54%1.85
Away win to nil1%143.87
Asian handicap (home)
Home -2.560%1.67
Home -1.578%1.28
Home -0.591%1.10
Home +0.598%1.02
Home +1.599%1.01
Home +2.599%+1.00
Correct score (top 8)
3-012%8.59
4-011%9.25
2-09%10.64
5-08%12.46
3-17%14.74
4-16%15.87
2-15%18.24
6-05%20.13
Half-time result
Home73%1.37
Draw22%4.64
Away5%18.81
Half-time goals
Over 0.586%1.17
Under 0.514%6.91
Over 1.558%1.74
Under 1.542%2.36
Half-time / full-time
Home/Home72%1.40
Home/Draw1%72.57
Home/Away<1%466.43
Draw/Home17%5.91
Draw/Draw4%27.88
Draw/Away1%97.08
Away/Home3%38.17
Away/Draw1%72.57
Away/Away1%75.91
Corners (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 8.574%1.35
Under 8.526%3.87
Over 9.563%1.59
Under 9.537%2.69
Over 10.551%1.98
Under 10.549%2.02
Over 11.539%2.59
Under 11.561%1.63
Over 12.528%3.56
Under 12.572%1.39
Expected total: 10.7
DE corners
IndicativeOver 3.584%1.19
Under 3.516%6.25
Over 4.570%1.43
Under 4.530%3.35
Over 5.554%1.86
Under 5.546%2.17
Over 6.538%2.65
Under 6.562%1.61
Expected total: 5.9
CW corners
Indicativelow sample (n=11)
Over 3.571%1.41
Under 3.529%3.42
Over 4.553%1.90
Under 4.547%2.11
Over 5.535%2.85
Under 5.565%1.54
Over 6.521%4.74
Under 6.579%1.27
Expected total: 4.8
Yellow cards (match total)
Indicativelow sample (n=10)
Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.61
Over 3.539%2.54
Under 3.561%1.65
Over 4.522%4.61
Under 4.578%1.28
Over 5.510%9.63
Under 5.590%1.12
Expected total: 3.2
DE anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
M. Dahoud (?)31%3.22
J. Weigl (?)31%3.22
A. Younes (?)31%3.22
S. Rudy (?)31%3.22
M. Hummels (?)31%3.22
N. Süle (?)31%3.22
L. Goretzka (Midfielder)31%3.22
N. Schulz (?)31%3.22
Expected total: 3.0
CW anytime goalscorer
Indicativevery low sample (n=0)
J. Locadia (Attacker)16%6.23
B. Kuwas (Attacker)16%6.23
G. Kastaneer (Attacker)16%6.23
J. Antonisse (Attacker)16%6.23
J. Margaritha (Attacker)16%6.23
R. Janga (?)6%17.67
R. Bonevacia (?)6%17.67
Gino Ronald van Kessel (?)6%17.67
Expected total: 1.1
Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 3.71, away 0.58). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.