France vs Sweden

Group null · Matchday 4

· MetLife Stadium, New York

Group standings →Bracket →FR 100% · SE 100% to advance

France

76%

3–0

Sweden

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Goals (3)

45'

K. Mbappe

France

53'

B. Barcola

assist: M. Olise

France

74'

K. Mbappe

assist: M. Olise

France

Substitutions (10)

66'

↑ T. Ali for E. Stroud

Sweden

66'

↑ B. Zeneli for L. Bergvall

Sweden

75'

↑ M. Gusto for J. Kounde

France

75'

↑ D. Doue for O. Dembele

France

78'

↑ T. Hernandez for L. Digne

France

82'

↑ M. Svanberg for D. Svensson

Sweden

82'

↑ B. Nygren for Y. Ayari

Sweden

85'

↑ J. Mateta for K. Mbappe

France

85'

↑ R. Cherki for M. Olise

France

89'

↑ G. Nilsson for A. Isak

Sweden

Match stats

62%Possession38%

25Shots6

12Shots on target2

3.16Expected goals0.56

9Corners1

13Fouls10

3Offsides1

2Saves9

88%Pass accuracy79%

Top performer

K. Mbappe

France · 2 goals

Lineups

France4-2-3-1

Sweden3-4-2-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

2.50

Goals / match

1.75

1.25

Conceded / match

2.50

38%

BTTS rate

75%

50%

Clean sheet rate

2.23

xG / match (club)

1.02

6.0

Corners / match

6.0

1.4

Yellows / match

1.7

58%

Possession

55%

France · last 5

Sweden · last 4

Netherlands5-120 June DA

Japan1-125 June LA

France3-030 June

Head to head · 5 meetings

France wins

Draws

Sweden wins

Last: France 4-2 Sweden (2020-11-17)avg 3.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

France

No known absences.

Sweden

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: France are strong favourites at 76%.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 64% of the time.

Most likely score 2-0 (12%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+2.6%/-4.7%

Head-to-head

+1.2%/-1.2%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

France

45%

Draw

45%

Sweden

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

69·

Form

·31

59·

Attack

·41

78·

Defence

·22

Their advice: Combo Winner : France and +1.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

France goals

0123456

Sweden goals

Most likely: 2-0 12%, 3-0 11%, 2-1 9%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 63%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

FranceSweden

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win76%1.32

Draw16%6.24

Away win8%12.46

Double chance

Home or draw92%1.09

Home or away84%1.19

Draw or away24%4.16

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)90%1.11

Away (DNB)10%10.47

Total goals

Over 0.595%1.05

Under 0.55%22.16

Over 1.585%1.17

Under 1.515%6.76

Over 2.564%1.55

Under 2.536%2.81

Over 3.542%2.36

Under 3.558%1.73

Over 4.524%4.17

Under 4.576%1.32

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.08

Even52%1.93

Exact total goals

0 goals5%22.16

1 goals10%9.72

2 goals21%4.80

3 goals22%4.53

4 goals18%5.47

5 goals12%8.25

6+ goals12%8.41

Both teams to score

Yes48%2.07

No52%1.93

Team totals

Home over 0.593%1.08

Home over 1.573%1.37

Home over 2.548%2.08

Away over 0.551%1.96

Away over 1.516%6.20

Away over 2.54%27.69

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet49%2.05

Away clean sheet7%13.45

Win to nil

Home win to nil44%2.25

Away win to nil3%34.22

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.534%2.90

Home -1.556%1.78

Home -0.577%1.30

Home +0.593%1.08

Home +1.598%1.02

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-012%8.15

3-011%9.41

2-19%11.38

1-09%11.68

1-18%13.09

3-18%13.14

4-07%14.48

4-15%20.22

Half-time result

Home58%1.72

Draw32%3.14

Away10%9.83

Half-time goals

Over 0.578%1.29

Under 0.523%4.44

Over 1.544%2.28

Under 1.556%1.78

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home55%1.83

Home/Draw3%34.42

Home/Away1%172.79

Draw/Home20%4.96

Draw/Draw8%11.82

Draw/Away3%31.32

Away/Home3%32.62

Away/Draw3%34.42

Away/Away4%23.79

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.582%1.22

Under 8.518%5.45

Over 9.572%1.39

Under 9.528%3.57

Over 10.561%1.64

Under 10.539%2.55

Over 11.549%2.04

Under 11.551%1.96

Over 12.538%2.65

Under 12.562%1.61

Expected total: 11.6

FR corners

Indicative

Over 3.584%1.19

Under 3.516%6.18

Over 4.570%1.43

Under 4.530%3.33

Over 5.554%1.87

Under 5.546%2.15

Over 6.538%2.66

Under 6.562%1.60

Expected total: 5.9

SE corners

Indicative

Over 3.582%1.22

Under 3.518%5.58

Over 4.567%1.48

Under 4.533%3.07

Over 5.551%1.98

Under 5.549%2.02

Over 6.535%2.88

Under 6.565%1.53

Expected total: 5.7

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.561%1.63

Under 2.539%2.59

Over 3.539%2.56

Under 3.561%1.64

Over 4.521%4.68

Under 4.579%1.27

Over 5.510%9.83

Under 5.590%1.11

Expected total: 3.2

FR anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

T. Lemar (?)23%4.37

M. Diaby (?)23%4.37

K. Coman (?)23%4.37

L. Dubois (?)23%4.37

H. Aouar (Midfielder)23%4.37

N. Fekir (?)23%4.37

K. Benzema (?)23%4.37

B. Matuidi (?)23%4.37

Expected total: 2.1

SE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

I. Kiese Thelin (?)7%14.47

M. Lustig (?)7%14.47

P. Bengtsson (?)7%14.47

O. Lewicki (?)7%14.47

K. Olsson (?)7%14.47

J. Johansson (?)7%14.47

L. Augustinsson (?)7%14.47

A. Tinnerholm (?)7%14.47

Expected total: 0.6

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.60, away 0.72). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.