Mexico vs Ecuador

Group null · Matchday 4

· Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Group standings →Bracket →MX 100% · EC 100% to advance

Mexico

37%

FT

2–0

Ecuador

30%

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Goals (2)

22'

J. Quinones

assist: R. Alvarado

Mexico
31'

R. Jimenez

assist: J. Quinones

Mexico

Cards (4)

46'

A. Franco

Ecuador
93'

K. Paez

Ecuador
95'

P. Hincapie

Ecuador
99'

M. Caicedo

Ecuador

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ A. Preciado for J. Ordonez

Ecuador
46'

↑ Y. Medina for A. Franco

Ecuador
58'

↑ Brian Gutierrez for Gilberto Mora

Mexico
59'

↑ K. Rodriguez for E. Valencia

Ecuador
73'

↑ O. Vargas for L. Romo

Mexico
74'

↑ S. Gimenez for R. Jimenez

Mexico
79'

↑ J. Caicedo for J. Yeboah

Ecuador
79'

↑ K. Paez for N. Angulo

Ecuador
80'

↑ I. Reyes for R. Alvarado

Mexico
80'

↑ O. Pineda for J. Quinones

Mexico

Match stats

43%Possession57%
15Shots7
3Shots on target1
1.00Expected goals0.73
3Corners8
9Fouls12
0Offsides1
1Saves1
79%Pass accuracy85%

Top performer

JQ

J. Quinones

Mexico · 1 goal

Lineups

Mexico4-3-3

Ecuador4-4-2

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 5 · away 4

2.00
Goals / match
0.50
0.60
Conceded / match
1.00
20%
BTTS rate
25%
80%
Clean sheet rate
25%
1.62
xG / match (club)
1.36
5.6
Corners / match
5.2
2.2
Yellows / match
2.0
57%
Possession
54%

Head to head · 6 meetings

1

Mexico wins

3

Draws

2

Ecuador wins

Last: Mexico 1-1 Ecuador (2025-10-15)avg 2.5 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Mexico

No known absences.

Ecuador

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Wide-open match

  • Result: An open match. Mexico edge it at just 37%.

  • Goals: A low-scoring game looks likely. Under 2.5 is favoured (64%).

Most likely score 1-1 (15%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days
-6.0%/+6.0%
Head-to-head
+2.0%/-2.0%
Club xG form
-2.6%/-4.5%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Mexico

45%

Draw

45%

Ecuador

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

69·
Form
·31
75·
Attack
·25
100·
Defence
·0

Their advice: Combo Double chance : Mexico or draw and -3.5 goals

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Mexico goals
13
10
6
12
15
7
8
8
0123456

Ecuador goals

Most likely: 1-1 15%, 0-0 13%, 1-0 12%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 36%

13
0
22
1
29
2
19
3
10
4
4
5
2
6+

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

AttackDefenceRatingSet-pieceattackSet-piecedefence
MexicoEcuador

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win37%2.68
Draw33%3.04
Away win30%3.36

Double chance

Home or draw70%1.42
Home or away67%1.49
Draw or away63%1.59

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)56%1.80
Away (DNB)44%2.25

Total goals

Over 0.587%1.15
Under 0.513%7.46
Over 1.565%1.54
Under 1.535%2.86
Over 2.536%2.75
Under 2.564%1.57
Over 3.517%5.86
Under 3.583%1.21
Over 4.57%14.93
Under 4.593%1.07

Odd / even goals

Odd46%2.18
Even54%1.85

Exact total goals

0 goals13%7.46
1 goals22%4.63
2 goals29%3.49
3 goals19%5.19
4 goals10%9.66
5 goals4%22.48
6+ goals2%44.41

Both teams to score

Yes45%2.23
No55%1.81

Team totals

Home over 0.568%1.46
Home over 1.532%3.13
Home over 2.511%9.07
Away over 0.563%1.59
Away over 1.526%3.81
Away over 2.58%12.57

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet37%2.71
Away clean sheet32%3.16

Win to nil

Home win to nil24%4.25
Away win to nil18%5.50

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.55%18.88
Home -1.516%6.07
Home -0.538%2.67
Home +0.570%1.42
Home +1.588%1.13
Home +2.597%1.03

Correct score (top 8)

1-115%6.61
0-013%7.46
1-012%8.54
0-110%10.12
2-08%12.91
2-18%12.96
1-27%14.99
0-26%17.27

Half-time result

Home29%3.49
Draw47%2.11
Away24%4.18

Half-time goals

Over 0.562%1.61
Under 0.538%2.63
Over 1.525%3.97
Under 1.575%1.34

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home23%4.43
Home/Draw5%21.32
Home/Away1%69.79
Draw/Home15%6.68
Draw/Draw20%4.99
Draw/Away12%8.08
Away/Home2%58.53
Away/Draw5%21.32
Away/Away18%5.71

Corners (match total)

Indicative
Over 8.574%1.35
Under 8.526%3.88
Over 9.563%1.59
Under 9.537%2.69
Over 10.551%1.98
Under 10.549%2.02
Over 11.539%2.58
Under 11.561%1.63
Over 12.528%3.56
Under 12.572%1.39

Expected total: 10.7

MX corners

Indicative
Over 3.580%1.26
Under 3.520%4.92
Over 4.564%1.56
Under 4.536%2.78
Over 5.547%2.13
Under 5.553%1.88
Over 6.531%3.21
Under 6.569%1.45

Expected total: 5.5

EC corners

Indicative
Over 3.577%1.30
Under 3.523%4.28
Over 4.560%1.67
Under 4.540%2.50
Over 5.543%2.35
Under 5.557%1.74
Over 6.527%3.67
Under 6.573%1.38

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative
Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.09
Over 3.556%1.79
Under 3.544%2.26
Over 4.536%2.76
Under 4.564%1.57
Over 5.521%4.80
Under 5.579%1.26

Expected total: 4.0

MX anytime goalscorer

Indicative

low sample (n=1)

J. Quiñones (Midfielder)17%5.94
H. Lozano (?)11%9.19
A. Guardado (?)11%9.19
H. González (?)11%9.19
N. Araújo (?)11%9.19
M. Layún (?)11%9.19
H. Moreno (?)11%9.19
L. Rodríguez (?)11%9.19

Expected total: 1.0

EC anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

J. Yeboah (Attacker)26%3.87
C. Noboa (?)9%10.55
Alexander Domínguez Carabalí (?)9%10.55
P. Ortíz (?)9%10.55
X. Arreaga (?)9%10.55
B. Caicedo (?)9%10.55
R. Ibarra (?)9%10.55
Á. Mena (?)9%10.55

Expected total: 1.0

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.15, away 1.00). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.