Belgium vs Senegal

Group null · Matchday 4

· Lumen Field, Seattle

Group standings →Bracket →BE 100% · SN 100% to advance

Belgium

56%

3–2

Senegal

19%

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Goals (5)

24'

H. Diarra

Senegal

51'

I. Sarr

Senegal

86'

R. Lukaku

Belgium

89'

Y. Tielemans

Belgium

120'

Y. Tielemanspen

Belgium

Cards (2)

64'

B. Mechele

Belgium

67'

L. Camara

Senegal

Substitutions (12)

46'

↑ R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaere

Belgium

56'

↑ N. Raskin for K. De Bruyne

Belgium

56'

↑ D. Lukebakio for J. Doku

Belgium

63'

↑ D. Moreira for H. Vanaken

Belgium

66'

↑ L. Camara for P. Gueye

Senegal

73'

↑ P. M. Sarr for H. Diarra

Senegal

73'

↑ I. Mbaye for I. Ndiaye

Senegal

78'

↑ T. Meunier for M. De Cuyper

Belgium

94'

↑ N. Jackson for S. Mane

Senegal

94'

↑ M. Diouf for I. Jakobs

Senegal

96'

↑ B. Sapoko Ndiaye for I. Gueye

Senegal

109'

↑ A. Onana for L. Trossard

Belgium

Match stats

53%Possession47%

19Shots16

5Shots on target5

1.80Expected goals3.22

4Corners2

21Fouls12

2Offsides2

3Saves3

86%Pass accuracy84%

Top performer

Y. Tielemans

Belgium · 2 goals

Lineups

Belgium4-2-3-1

Senegal4-3-3

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 6 · away 4

2.33

Goals / match

2.50

1.17

Conceded / match

2.25

83%

BTTS rate

75%

17%

Clean sheet rate

25%

2.41

xG / match (club)

0.00

7.3

Corners / match

5.7

1.5

Yellows / match

1.8

60%

Possession

52%

Belgium · last 5

Iran0-021 June WA

New Zealand1-527 June WH

Senegal3-21 July WA

United States1-47 July LA

Senegal · last 4

Head to head · 1 meetings

Belgium wins

Draws

Senegal wins

Last: Belgium 0-0 Senegal (2026-07-01)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Belgium

No known absences.

Senegal

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

Medium confidence

Result: Belgium are slight favourites at 56%, but it is far from settled.
Goals: Goals expected. Over 2.5 lands 59% of the time.
Both score: Both teams to score is likely (58%).

Most likely score 1-1 (11%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Club xG form

+3.0%/-5.1%

Travel

-1.0%/0.0%

Set pieces

+0.8%/+0.4%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models moderately agree

Belgium

45%

Draw

45%

Senegal

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

63·

Form

·38

43·

Attack

·57

75·

Defence

·25

Their advice: Double chance : Belgium or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Belgium goals

0123456

Senegal goals

Most likely: 1-1 11%, 2-1 10%, 2-0 9%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 59%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

BelgiumSenegal

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win56%1.77

Draw24%4.10

Away win19%5.19

Double chance

Home or draw81%1.24

Home or away76%1.32

Draw or away44%2.29

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)75%1.34

Away (DNB)25%3.93

Total goals

Over 0.594%1.06

Under 0.56%16.71

Over 1.582%1.22

Under 1.518%5.64

Over 2.559%1.69

Under 2.541%2.44

Over 3.537%2.73

Under 3.563%1.58

Over 4.519%5.13

Under 4.581%1.24

Odd / even goals

Odd47%2.11

Even53%1.90

Exact total goals

0 goals6%16.71

1 goals12%8.51

2 goals23%4.30

3 goals22%4.47

4 goals17%5.84

5 goals10%9.54

6+ goals9%11.10

Both teams to score

Yes58%1.73

No42%2.38

Team totals

Home over 0.586%1.16

Home over 1.559%1.69

Home over 2.532%3.11

Away over 0.566%1.53

Away over 1.529%3.47

Away over 2.59%10.77

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet34%2.90

Away clean sheet14%7.34

Win to nil

Home win to nil28%3.51

Away win to nil8%13.11

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.517%5.74

Home -1.535%2.83

Home -0.558%1.74

Home +0.582%1.23

Home +1.593%1.08

Home +2.598%1.02

Correct score (top 8)

1-111%8.88

2-110%10.06

2-09%10.73

1-08%12.42

3-17%15.14

3-06%16.14

0-06%16.71

1-25%18.82

Half-time result

Home44%2.28

Draw37%2.68

Away19%5.31

Half-time goals

Over 0.575%1.34

Under 0.525%3.96

Over 1.540%2.50

Under 1.560%1.67

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home38%2.65

Home/Draw5%21.69

Home/Away1%69.59

Draw/Home18%5.60

Draw/Draw12%8.22

Draw/Away7%13.69

Away/Home3%30.99

Away/Draw5%21.69

Away/Away11%9.10

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.585%1.17

Under 8.515%6.82

Over 9.577%1.30

Under 9.523%4.32

Over 10.567%1.50

Under 10.533%3.00

Over 11.555%1.81

Under 11.545%2.24

Over 12.544%2.28

Under 12.556%1.78

Expected total: 12.1

BE corners

Indicative

Over 3.590%1.12

Under 3.510%9.57

Over 4.579%1.27

Under 4.521%4.72

Over 5.565%1.55

Under 5.535%2.83

Over 6.549%2.04

Under 6.551%1.96

Expected total: 6.6

SN corners

Indicative

Over 3.580%1.25

Under 3.520%5.01

Over 4.565%1.55

Under 4.535%2.82

Over 5.547%2.11

Under 5.553%1.90

Over 6.532%3.15

Under 6.568%1.46

Expected total: 5.5

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.560%1.68

Under 2.540%2.47

Over 3.537%2.69

Under 3.563%1.59

Over 4.520%5.02

Under 4.580%1.25

Over 5.59%10.78

Under 5.591%1.10

Expected total: 3.1

BE anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

A. Witsel (Midfielder)18%5.53

C. Ngonge (?)18%5.53

N. Chadli (?)18%5.53

Thomas Vermaelen (?)18%5.53

T. Alderweireld (?)18%5.53

J. Vertonghen (?)18%5.53

S. Mignolet (?)18%5.53

D. Mertens (?)18%5.53

Expected total: 1.6

SN anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

N. Fadiga (?)10%9.89

K. Baldé (?)10%9.89

M. Loum (?)10%9.89

Salif Sané (?)10%9.89

B. Ndiaye (?)10%9.89

M. Diagne (?)10%9.89

Pape Cheikh (?)10%9.89

Y. Sabaly (?)10%9.89

Expected total: 0.9

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 1.99, away 1.07). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.