Spain vs Austria

Group null · Matchday 4

· SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles

Group standings →Bracket →ES 100% · AT 100% to advance

Spain

78%

3–0

Austria

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Goals (3)

36'

Mikel Oyarzabal

assist: Marc Cucurella

Spain

66'

P. Porro

assist: A. Baena

Spain

89'

Mikel Oyarzabal

Spain

Cards (1)

83'

S. Posch

Austria

Substitutions (10)

46'

↑ F. Grillitsch for X. Schlager

Austria

46'

↑ C. Chukwuemeka for N. Seiwald

Austria

60'

↑ M. Arnautovic for M. Gregoritsch

Austria

60'

↑ S. Kalajdzic for R. Schmid

Austria

71'

↑ F. Torres for A. Baena

Spain

71'

↑ M. Merino for D. Olmo

Spain

85'

↑ Pablo Martín Páez Gavira for Lamine Yamal

Spain

85'

↑ Alexander Prass for Stefan Posch

Austria

93'

↑ F. Ruiz for Pedri

Spain

93'

↑ M. Pubill for A. Laporte

Spain

Match stats

65%Possession35%

22Shots5

10Shots on target0

2.80Expected goals0.49

9Corners0

8Fouls14

2Offsides5

0Saves6

91%Pass accuracy82%

Top performer

Mikel Oyarzabal

Spain · 2 goals

Lineups

Spain4-1-2-3

Austria4-2-3-1

What's at stake

Knockout fixture, single elimination.

Season form comparison

sample home 8 · away 4

1.75

Goals / match

1.50

0.12

Conceded / match

2.25

12%

BTTS rate

50%

88%

Clean sheet rate

2.70

xG / match (club)

2.27

6.3

Corners / match

4.9

1.8

Yellows / match

1.7

68%

Possession

59%

Spain · last 5

Austria · last 4

Argentina2-022 June DA

Algeria3-328 June LA

Spain3-02 July

Head to head · 1 meetings

Spain wins

Draws

Austria wins

Last: Spain 0-0 Austria (2026-07-02)avg 0.0 goals

Absences

model swing: 0 / 0 pp

Spain

No known absences.

Austria

No known absences.

Win probability

Pre-match

The chart fills in from kickoff. We compute live win probability every 30 seconds.

Updated every 30s. Lines smoothed.

The model's read

High confidence

Result: Spain are strong favourites at 78%.
Goals: Goals are a coin-flip around the 2.5 line (over 51%).
Both score: Expect at least one clean sheet. Both-teams-score is just 33%.

Most likely score 2-0 (17%)

Why the model leans this way

Factor contributions

home←·→away

Rest days

-6.0%/+6.0%

Head-to-head

+2.5%/-2.5%

Club xG form

-0.3%/-1.5%

Set pieces

-0.9%/-0.2%

Two-model view

Second model api-football

Two models diverge

Spain

45%

Draw

45%

Austria

10%

Their internal ratings (0-100)

64·

Form

·36

45·

Attack

·55

100·

Defence

·0

Their advice: Double chance : Spain or draw

Surfaced for transparency. We don't blend api-football's numbers into our model — a second opinion, not a vote.

Match analysis

Score-line probability

brighter = more likely

Spain goals

0123456

Austria goals

Most likely: 2-0 17%, 1-0 14%, 3-0 13%. Outlined cells are draws.

Total goals

over 2.5 = 50%

Brighter bars are 3+ goals (over 2.5). Dashed line is the O/U 2.5 split.

Team comparison

SpainAustria

Percentile vs all 48 teams. Further out is stronger.

Fair odds for every market

How to use this

Fair odds is the lowest price worth taking. It is where a bet breaks even. If your bookmaker offers a bigger number than the fair odds here, the model says that's value. Shop around: the same bet is often priced differently across books.

Match result

Home win78%1.28

Draw17%5.99

Away win5%18.33

Double chance

Home or draw95%1.06

Home or away83%1.20

Draw or away22%4.51

Draw no bet

Home (DNB)93%1.07

Away (DNB)7%15.27

Total goals

Over 0.593%1.08

Under 0.57%13.39

Over 1.576%1.31

Under 1.524%4.22

Over 2.551%1.96

Under 2.549%2.04

Over 3.529%3.46

Under 3.571%1.41

Over 4.514%7.17

Under 4.586%1.16

Odd / even goals

Odd48%2.08

Even52%1.93

Exact total goals

0 goals7%13.39

1 goals16%6.15

2 goals25%3.96

3 goals22%4.53

4 goals15%6.67

5 goals8%12.28

6+ goals6%17.24

Both teams to score

Yes33%3.07

No67%1.48

Team totals

Home over 0.590%1.11

Home over 1.566%1.50

Home over 2.540%2.51

Away over 0.535%2.83

Away over 1.57%14.05

Away over 2.51%100.65

Clean sheet

Home clean sheet65%1.54

Away clean sheet10%9.79

Win to nil

Home win to nil57%1.75

Away win to nil3%36.35

Asian handicap (home)

Home -2.532%3.14

Home -1.556%1.80

Home -0.579%1.27

Home +0.595%1.05

Home +1.599%1.01

Home +2.599%+1.00

Correct score (top 8)

2-017%5.81

1-014%7.03

3-013%7.64

2-17%13.36

0-07%13.39

4-07%13.40

1-17%13.48

3-16%17.57

Half-time result

Home57%1.74

Draw36%2.80

Away7%14.27

Half-time goals

Over 0.571%1.42

Under 0.529%3.39

Over 1.535%2.90

Under 1.565%1.53

Half-time / full-time

Home/Home55%1.82

Home/Draw2%45.52

Home/Away<1%375.59

Draw/Home23%4.43

Draw/Draw11%9.43

Draw/Away2%40.11

Away/Home2%49.45

Away/Draw2%45.52

Away/Away3%35.84

Corners (match total)

Indicative

Over 8.583%1.21

Under 8.517%5.75

Over 9.573%1.37

Under 9.527%3.74

Over 10.562%1.60

Under 10.538%2.65

Over 11.551%1.97

Under 11.549%2.03

Over 12.539%2.55

Under 12.561%1.65

Expected total: 11.7

ES corners

Indicative

Over 3.589%1.12

Under 3.511%9.36

Over 4.578%1.27

Under 4.522%4.64

Over 5.564%1.56

Under 5.536%2.79

Over 6.549%2.06

Under 6.551%1.94

Expected total: 6.6

AT corners

Indicative

Over 3.576%1.32

Under 3.524%4.08

Over 4.559%1.71

Under 4.541%2.41

Over 5.541%2.44

Under 5.559%1.69

Over 6.526%3.85

Under 6.574%1.35

Expected total: 5.2

Yellow cards (match total)

Indicative

Over 2.566%1.52

Under 2.534%2.91

Over 3.544%2.29

Under 3.556%1.78

Over 4.525%3.97

Under 4.575%1.34

Over 5.513%7.87

Under 5.587%1.15

Expected total: 3.4

ES anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

Paco Alcácer (?)20%4.90

Jordi Alba (?)20%4.90

Sergi Roberto (?)20%4.90

Sergio Busquets (?)20%4.90

Raúl Albiol (?)20%4.90

Dani Carvajal (?)20%4.90

Nacho (?)20%4.90

Dani Ceballos (?)20%4.90

Expected total: 1.8

AT anytime goalscorer

Indicative

very low sample (n=0)

G. Burgstaller (?)4%23.47

F. Grillitsch (Midfielder)4%23.47

J. Baumgartlinger (?)4%23.47

A. Ulmer (?)4%23.47

X. Schlager (Midfielder)4%23.47

S. Ilsanker (?)4%23.47

D. Ljubičić (Midfielder)4%23.47

M. Entrup (?)4%23.47

Expected total: 0.3

Probabilities and fair odds are derived from the model's full score-line distribution (expected goals: home 2.28, away 0.43). Half-time and HT/FT markets use a 45/55 first-half split. These are model estimates, not a betting guarantee.